Stormtrooper8 NFL 2022

[lemartinsports]

thats that shit i love to see

 

[stormtrooper8]

Remaining plays for the week


Rams -10 -110

Nice to see this move to 10 and open up the push possibility. I think this is a nice bounce back spot for them. McVay with extra days to game plan, after a bad performance, against a bad team making a long trip after kind of an over-performance of sorts. I don't see Atlanta being able to have nearly the same amount of success running the ball as they did against the Saints. The Rams feel like a team that probably should have played more guys in the preseason, and I think it showed against Buffalo. That seems to be a theme across a lot of these teams who struggled in Week 1.

I think the boys respond. I don't they have a lot of match up advantages. I think their secondary plays well in particularly, as well as Stafford. Stafford great at beating up on bad teams -- always has been


Colts -3.5 -105

Not a big Indianapolis backer in general and their history of losing in Jacksonville bothers me a bit, but I do think they get the job done here. I would probably go the other way if Indy pounded Houston in Week 1, but I do think that might've been a little reality check that this team needed. While the Jags are actually a pretty good team against the run and may be able to neutralize Taylor a bit, I think Matt Ryan is going to find some opportunities to thread the needle a bit -- as much as I don't think he is much of a upgrade to Wentz (if at all).

Colts also have Chiefs looming. I think they would've been guilty of looking ahead at this game had they taken care of business in Week 1, but I expect them to be laser-focused here. I think they cover the number even if Jags show some fight.


Patriots ML -125

I'll protect myself in case this is a 1 or 2--pt game. I like New England to get the job done here. I think they have the better team, and I expect Belichick to make the proper adjustments after a poor showing in Miami. I think their offense played a little better than the scoreboard indicated; they moved the ball OK, though they abandoned the run game a little early for my taste. While I don't think their run game will necessarily thrive against a tough Steelers defense, I do think Mac Jones will get some opportunities with Watt out for the Steelers -- they're not nearly as explosive rushing the passer with him out.

I also think Pittsburgh is gonna struggle to move the ball in this game. Their offense looked pretty bad against Cincinnati. Let's be honest, they were very fortunate to win that game despite them being +5 in turnovers. They got out-gained significantly, and Cincinnati had the edge in first downs 32-13. They're gonna need to create turnovers to win this game, and I don't see that happening TBH after a flukey Week 1.


Dolphins/Ravens under 44.5 -105

1-0 start on the totals so here we go again with one of these. I wasn't very impressed with either of these teams offensively in Week 1. Maybe that means they both bounce back this week, but I think this is more of a grind out game. I think both teams will do a good job of preventing big plays on the back end, and both will look to run the rock/control the clock. Only hesitation here is if Hill cuts loose a couple times and forces the Ravens to respond and play more of an up and down game. I think this is a tight ball game; Ravens a slight edge but stay away in terms of ML or spread


GL fam. Might add one or two Monday...we'll see

 

[stormtrooper8]

tl,dr:

Week 2

Chiefs ML (Winner)
Bucs -2.5
49ers -9
Packers -10
Rams -10
Colts -3.5
Patriots ML
Dolphins/Ravens under 44.5

 

[lemartinsports]

tl,dr:

Week 2

Chiefs ML (Winner)
Bucs -2.5
49ers -9
Packers -10
Rams -10
Colts -3.5
Patriots ML
Dolphins/Ravens under 44.5

off to a good start my guy

i'm on the other end with saints ml and bears +10 then miami +3.5

 

[stormtrooper8]

off to a good start my guy

i'm on the other end with saints ml and bears +10 then miami +3.5

be careful with the Saints dude

 

[stormtrooper8]

Getting in an early Week 3 play before . First large one of the year



Bengals -4.5 -105 (2 unit play)


Write up will come later. Probably gonna double dip on this game

 

[Pimike]

Thanks for sharing.

 

[stormtrooper8]

Overall Record: 7-9 -2.55
Week 1: 2-6 -4.35
Week 2: 5-3 +1.80


Week 3


Bengals -4.5 -105 (2 unit play)

Like I said, grab this one early. It's up to 5 now. Sometimes you get opportunities to buy a stock low early in the year in this league -- like KC last year -- and I believe this is the time you do it for Cincinnati. The Bengals have a lot to figure out with their offensive line -- there's no arguing that. But unlike last year, when their issues were more personnel-based, I believe this year it's more a matter of developing chemistry and getting reps under their belt. I do think it will start to click, and I think this is the type of game to start to get things back on track.

Pittsburgh and Dallas both have great pass rushes, and Watt and Parsons might be the two best in the league. The Jets don't present that kind of pass rush, and in fact have a pretty lackluster defense overall. Sauce Gardner has looked nice so far, but he has not had the assignment of guarding a stud like Ja'Marr Chase yet. Good luck with that. So if there is an game that presents an opportunity for the offense to start clicking, it's this one.

I also like the fact that the Jets are coming off a big win -- think it creates an opportunity for a letdown spot here. They may show up with less of a sense of urgency. There's also the factor of what happened last year between these two teams when Mike White went GOAT mode. The Bengals offense did well that game, but their defense got shredded. I think that unit will have a little chip on their shoulder from that and avoid that mistake again.

I'm glad I got 4.5, but think you should get it no matter the number. Also may be worth looking at a Bengal team total as well as a first half Bengals line -- think they come out fast this game.

 

[Wagerallsports]

I like the Bengals play

Have to take any & every advantage you can get in sports betting, and the odds favor Cincinnati bouncing back after that poor performance in Dallas

 

[lemartinsports]

i need to listen to you this week, so lemme take some notes

 

[Pimike]

Lol

Just posted them as a play

 

[stormtrooper8]

i need to listen to you this week, so lemme take some notes

Nah I'm strugglin this year so far. I'd tread lightly.

These lines this week look brutal

 

[lemartinsports]

Nah I'm strugglin this year so far. I'd tread lightly.

These lines this week look brutal

bro so am i though, its been rough. trying to gather my senses and focus. just gotta be patient too


i agree, only a couple stand out to me. been looking them over. having a different approach on the teasers as well this week

 

[stormtrooper8]

bro so am i though, its been rough. trying to gather my senses and focus. just gotta be patient too


i agree, only a couple stand out to me. been looking them over. having a different approach on the teasers as well this week

oof i can't wait

we should do a show where we pick all 16 lol the young people show

 

[lemartinsports]

oof i can't wait

we should do a show where we pick all 16 lol the young people show

BROOOOOOO


ok im messaging you

 

[stormtrooper8]

These don't count toward the official record as I don't have action on every game, but also going keep track of how I do ATS against the spread for every game this year. Using Wednesday evening Hilton-style contest lines

Last week was 8-8, though unfortunately I decided to place my money on the wrong games

Here is how I see the ATS goin

View attachment 6062

Also got more action coming up

ATS picks went 8-8 again this week, so 16-16 through two weeks. No under .500 weeks yet I guess, yet no over .500 weeks either hehe

 

[stormtrooper8]

Another Week 3 play. Should have a bunch of them soon, but here's one I have now.


Week 3

Chiefs/Colts over 50 -105

I have been going back and forth on the side of this game. There are good arguments both ways. While conventional wisdom would say to make a play on Indy, we also have to factor in Reid with extra days to prepare, plus Mahomes bouncing back from a fairly pedestrian game against the Chargers.

I ultimately decided to play the over in this game despite not being much of a totals guy. I think the Colts offense is being a little undervalued -- predictably after scoring a whopping 0 points in Jacksonville. I think they are going to play with a sense of urgency, and also believe Taylor/Ryan are both going to have pretty good games. I have never been bullish on the Colts, and I still am not, but I do think they are due for a few nice offensive performances this year. Remember, they did start slow last year and improved, and also played tougher teams well.

On the Chiefs side I already alluded to Reid with extra days to prepare, plus a stronger Mahomes performance. I also think this offense is starting to realize that it can find a lot of effectiveness in the run game. That may mean the clock ticking away, but it also means more sustainable drives and opportunities for Mahomes to use play-action and get clean looks to his bevy of receivers.

This feels like a game that could be like 31-24 or 34-27ish, so I think over is a worth taking a shot here.

 

[Wagerallsports]

I like this over storm

Surely the colts snap out of their funk and they will have the outscore Kansas City

 

[stormtrooper8]

I like this over storm

Surely the colts snap out of their funk and they will have the outscore Kansas City

It sure feels like that way.

Usually when we both like something it does well....like Chiefs ML against the Chargers

So I'm feeling better about this week

 

[stormtrooper8]

Remainder of plays..... for now


Week 3



Bengals TT over 23.5 -150

I talked about this game a bit in my initial write-up, but I will reiterate that I think this is a genuine get-right game for the Bengals. It doesn't mean that all their issues are going to be solved, but I do think this is a great spot for them to take a step in the right direction. The pass rush they are about to face pales in comparison to the ones they faced in Weeks 1-2, and so it will be a good opportunity for this offensive line to get their shit together and have a nice performance.


Patriots +3 -110

I like the New England side in this one. I think the Patriots have the type of defense that can give the Ravens some issues. The Achilles' heal for the Patriots defense is an explosive, top tier runner that force Belichick's defense out of its comfort zone coverage-wise. Baltimore doesn't really have that right now, and I think that's a huge advantage. The Ravens also haven't really shown much dimension to their run game outside of Lamar, which again is a huge advantage to the defensive-minded Belichick and his staff. Wh

While Mac is a limited quarterback, he is going to have plenty of opportunities to make some plays against a very vulnerable Baltimore secondary. If New England can continue to get decent offensive line play, that should be enough to give the Patriots the ability to move the ball and sustain drives/control the clock -- exactly what they want to do, and think they will do in this game


Commanders +6.5 -105

There is no question that Philly looks great right now, and that Washington looks like its usual flawed self, but I think this is a good opportunity to back a divisional dog. It's hard to decipher how good Philly's defense is at this point. They looked a lot better against the Vikings, but I felt that game was more about the Vikings being so inept and being unable to take advantage of opportunities that were there. In Week 1, Detroit was able to move the ball pretty easily on them.

I wonder when you're a team that doesn't have much experience with success and you're starting to experience some/get some expectations, how sustainable is that on a week-to-week basis? I just view this as a natural letdown spot for them. The Commanders are probably not worthy of that much confidence at this point, but I do think they've looked competent enough to take points at home against an opponent that, in my opinion, still has a bit to prove.


Seahawks -1.5 -110

I think there is going to be a lot of love on Atlanta this week because of their plucky performances in the first couple weeks, but I feel like this is the type of game where I think Geno can thrive. The Falcons really have no pass rush, as opposed to what they just saw in Santa Clara against the Niners. If you give Geno enough time, he is going to make some good throws and take care of the ball.

When you combine the lack of pass rush with the lack of competency in the secondary for Atlanta, then you get a recipe for some nice numbers. I think the stock on Seattle may have fallen after a bad offensive showing in Week 2, so I do think this line is a bit off. In a way, it could be a letdown spot for Atlanta despite the close loss. I think Seattle moves the ball, and is able to hold Atlanta's one-dimensional offense off enough to win by at least a field goal at home.


Cowboys ML +105

I kinda wish I snagged this yesterday when we got more value on it, but this is still fine. I like the Cowboys a lot this week. There could be a natural tendency to see regression in spots like this after an impressive win with a backup QB, but I just think there is a huge mismatch between Dallas' pass rush and New York's offensive line. The Giants, despite being 2-0, are not a very talented team. I don't see them being able to find much success on the ground even with a healthy Barkley against a solid Cowboys defense. That'll put more pressure on Jones to make plays with his arms, and I think that could be a very difficult task with Parsons up in his grill all night.

The only concern here will be whether or not Dallas can sustain drives long enough. I think they will mix it up a bit with Zeke and Pollard again, which worked well against a good Cincinnati Bengals defense and gave Cooper Rush some opportunities to make some throws down the feel. I think as long as they hold on to the ball, the offense will produce enough points to get the road win.

An extra angle here could be that despite how bad Dallas seems to be at the end of years, they really have owned this division head to head. Like they not only swept the division last year, but won the games by an average of more than 20 points per game. That's as promising a historical angle as you can have.