(prices from above)
Bengals +5 -105 and Bengals ML +190 (2.5 unit play)
Before the season, I predicted the Bengals would go 12-5, win their division, and lose to a hot Bills of Chiefs team in the Divisional round of the playoffs. So far, the prediction has been pretty close to spot on. So this is where I hope I'm wrong.
I went against my Bengals last week and predicted the Ravens to cover the number...I felt in a lot of ways, that would be the toughest game for them because of the divisional familiarity and Ravens style of play. As pedestrian as Cincinnati looked, they got through it and found a way to get it done.
This week, I believe the Bengals will play well. I think this group plays especially well when they have a chip on their shoulder/are in an underdog role -- something that's been somewhat rare this year given how successful they've been. That's sort of big picture stuff....here's more what I see on the field:
When the Bengals have the ball, I see a lot of mismatches that go the Bengals way. Buffalo is getting less healthy in the secondary and I think Chase/Higgins/Boyd are all going to find ample opportunities. The question will become whether or not Burrow is going to have time to be able to find his weapons deep down the field for explosive plays, or will he have to take a shorter/methodical approach. While I don't expect Burrow to have the time he had mid way through the season because of a banged up offensive line, I do think the line is going to hold up enough to create some chances for big plays. The line, while not great, is not great, but it is still going to be a bit better than last year's line that got them to the Super Bowl. More importantly though, I don't think Buffalo is going to be effective enough rushing Burrow because of the loss of Von Miller -- whose absence will not be more pronounced than ever. I just don't think Bills are going to have the players to fully take advantage of Cincinnati's OL injuries, and should they try to compensate and over-blitz from their linebackers, Burrow will eat them alive. He is the best QB in the league against the blitz
On the flip side, I think Buffalo will be able to move the ball a bit. Allen is just too good, and there is enough vulnerability in the secondary right now in Cincinnati that I think their receivers should be able to make some plays. But I do think Bengals have a couple things going for them here. One, Cincinnati executes a lot better defensively in the red zone than it does overall -- the ultimate "bend don't break" defense. You combine that with Allen's ability to make a mistakes when he gets down there -- I see the potential for a game-turning turnover in the Bengals direction. Even if the turnover isn't there, I think Bengals can force Bills into a couple field goals. The Bengals also have been very successful against mobile quarterbacks this year, and I think this will help against Allen and this rushing attack. The Bengals, while being a little shorthanded on the back end of their defense, have been getting healthier up front. The combination of Hendrickson/Hubbard/Reader may not be a great pass-rushing line, but they are VERY good against the run. Add into that Logan Wilson's playmaking ability, and I think you have a team that is built to contain Allen in the rushing game
The cold weather factor is something I've heard as something that favors the Bills, but I'm not so sure. Fun fact: Joe Burrow is 7-0 in games under 40 degrees. Somewhat counterintuitive when you consider the passing tendencies of Cincinnati
There's not really any outcome that would completely shock me, but I think the value here is on the Bengals. I think they are going to find a way to win this game in Orchard Park, and at the very least keep it very close
