Stormtrooper8 NFL 2022

[stormtrooper8]

49ers -10 -105


I am taking what I believe is the best team in the NFL in the first game of the playoffs. The only questions about San Francisco revolve around the inexperience of rookie QB/Mr Irrelevant. I believe that at least for the Wild Card Round, the lack of experience at that position won't matter.

The 49ers have been on absolute tear since starting the season 3-4, reeling off 10 straight wins and being the best team in the NFC by a large margin. They've been able to do this despite some minor injuries here and there, and as mentioned, having a rookie quarterback for the last several weeks.

This team is so uniquely talented on offense and has so many ways it can beat you, and one can argue that Brock Purdy AKA Big Cock Brock has made their offense even more versatile. This doesn't bode well for the Seahawks, as the defense has regressed back to what many thought it would be. People will be fooled by the last two weeks of the season, when the Seahawks allowed only 22 points over a two-week period. But those performances, in my opinion, were more a result of weak competition (Jets, Rams) than were about Seattle figuring some things out. The Seahawks are very young and vulnerable on defense, and I don't see how they can line up well against the 49ers through the air or on the ground.

On the other side of the ball, Seattle's inexperience on the offensive line has started to show and Geno has started to falter a bit as well. There is no question that the 49ers have been coasting on defense the last couple of weeks, waiting for the "real season" to start. They are going to be as dialed in as ever, meaning that you are gonna have the best front 7 in football going against a couple of rookies....yikes.

At the end of the day, of the 14 teams in the playoffs we are probably looking at the best team against the worst team in this match-up. Asking the best team in the league to win by double-digits at home against the worst team in the playoff field is not asking too much in my opinion.

Take the Niners

 

[Wagerallsports]

Agree it's San Fran or nothing

 

[stormtrooper8]

Chargers -1 +100


For the second Wild Card match-up on Saturday night, I'm going to take the Chargers. I'm breaking a somewhat less known, unwritten rule in football betting by laying a point, but I think it's the right side and I like the even money value.

It's pretty well documented that I have not been bullish on the Chargers for a while, not buying into the team's preseason hype. In a lot of ways they have been worse than I expected them to be, in large part due to injuries. But one thing I have liked about them is their ability to close out games that, in the past, think they would have struggled to close out. I do think think that bodes well for them from an intangible standpoint, against a Jags team that I think is more playing "house money" in a sense

From a pure match-up standpoint there are two primary reasons I like the Chargers. For one, I think Justin Herbert is going to have plenty of opportunities to throw the ball effectively against a weak Jacksonville secondary. A potential Mike Williams injury hurts, but the Chargers still have a suite of weapons that will give the back of the Jaguars' defense some problems. Even if there are holes on the Chargers' offensive line, the Jags are not the type of team that will be able to create enough pressure to take advantage of any potential weakness there. Look for Herbert to have a big game.

The other reason is on the other side of the ball. There is no doubt that Trevor Lawrence has improved tremendously and he has been a wonderful the last several weeks. But the Chargers pass defense has been one of the most week-to-week improving units in the NFL, and I think with them becoming more healthy upfront and generating pressure, I think they will give the Jaguars some problems. And as much as Lawrence and this offense has improved, they have not looked impressive the last couple weeks. I'm not sure this is a good match-up to get back on the right track

It's a tough game but I'll go with Chargers, even if their coach is a stooge. Hoping it's a fun one to watch

 

[stormtrooper8]

Watching the earlier Sunday games a bit, gonna lock those in tomorrow, but I have one...

 

[stormtrooper8]

Ravens +8 +100

In what may feel like a shock to some, I am going to take Baltimore. Like that it got to even money at 8 points, though I may be buying a tad early as Lamar nuggets trickle in. Oh well, I like this number anyway -- might have chance to sprinkle on more

I haven't been bullish on Baltimore for most of the year, but it's undeniable that this team has progressed quite a bit this year on defense -- to frankly a shocking level, given how inept they looked in the secondary at the beginning of the year. To finish in the top 10 defensively after such a horrid start -- granted they did play some cupcakes down the stretch -- is wonderful

They've been particularly excellent in the red zone, ranking third in the league in opponents TD percentage (teams score a TD only 46% of the time when they get inside the 20 against the Ravens). The Ravens are one of the few teams that I think can give the Bengals (5th in red zone scoring offense at 64%) problems when they get down there. Burrow has been excellent taking care of the ball down near the end zone, but he has struggled in both games against Baltimore this year and I could Cincinnati having to roll out McPherson a few times in this game

It's looking more and more like Lamar won't play, but it seems like there's at least a decent shot Huntley will. Huntley hasn't been great, but I think he is much less error-prone than what we saw with Brown in Sunday's game in Cincinnati. Baltimore has found ways to still be at least formidable on the ground, even if it's a higher dose of Drake and Hill and less so Martin. I think they can sustain at least enough drives to take Cincinnati out of their normal, high-octane rhythm and make this a ball game.

I think Harbaugh is a good coach (better than his overrated brother) who will have these guys ready to go, and I think you mix that in with the fact that the Ravens have been plucky all year, this is a divisional game, etc. and I think this is a tight ball game. I do think the Bengals find a way to win, even if it's ugly, but I think taking points here is the right play

 

[JDS]

Ravens +8 +100

In what may feel like a shock to some, I am going to take Baltimore. Like that it got to even money at 8 points, though I may be buying a tad early as Lamar nuggets trickle in. Oh well, I like this number anyway -- might have chance to sprinkle on more

I haven't been bullish on Baltimore for most of the year, but it's undeniable that this team has progressed quite a bit this year on defense -- to frankly a shocking level, given how inept they looked in the secondary at the beginning of the year. To finish in the top 10 defensively after such a horrid start -- granted they did play some cupcakes down the stretch -- is wonderful

They've been particularly excellent in the red zone, ranking third in the league in opponents TD percentage (teams score a TD only 46% of the time when they get inside the 20 against the Ravens). The Ravens are one of the few teams that I think can give the Bengals (5th in red zone scoring offense at 64%) problems when they get down there. Burrow has been excellent taking care of the ball down near the end zone, but he has struggled in both games against Baltimore this year and I could Cincinnati having to roll out McPherson a few times in this game

It's looking more and more like Lamar won't play, but it seems like there's at least a decent shot Huntley will. Huntley hasn't been great, but I think he is much less error-prone than what we saw with Brown in Sunday's game in Cincinnati. Baltimore has found ways to still be at least formidable on the ground, even if it's a higher dose of Drake and Hill and less so Martin. I think they can sustain at least enough drives to take Cincinnati out of their normal, high-octane rhythm and make this a ball game.

I think Harbaugh is a good coach (better than his overrated brother) who will have these guys ready to go, and I think you mix that in with the fact that the Ravens have been plucky all year, this is a divisional game, etc. and I think this is a tight ball game. I do think the Bengals find a way to win, even if it's ugly, but I think taking points here is the right play

Interesting pick Stormy. I love how you can separate your fan love & pick against them in anyway. I know end result you think they will win, but I’m totally surprised by this opinion by you.

 

[Tanko]

Ok. So +8 on Ravens
Excellent review. Love the impartiality. I'd have trouble separating my feelings from "My Team".

 

[JDS]

Ok. So +8 on Ravens
Excellent review. Love the impartiality. I'd have trouble separating my feelings from "My Team".

Same even for me, I just avoid having action on those games unless I’m backing my team. It takes a real professional to do that.

 

[stormtrooper8]

Locking in

Bills -13 -110
Vikings -3 -105
Bucs +2.5 -110

 

[stormtrooper8]

Bills -13 -110

I like Buffalo quite a bit in this match-up. After initially leaning towards Miami early in the week, the tide shifted quite a bit with QB situation.

This is not as much about Tua being great (because he is NOT great, or anywhere close to that...) but about the prospect of Skylar Thompson (who the f*** is this guy?) going into Orchard Park and facing one of the most daunting environments in football.

Buffalo has some vulnerability on the back end of its defense, and I think you could make an argument that Waddle/Hill are going to be able to provide a threat and cause . But I don't trust Thompson in this particular scenario to be able to take full advantage and get the ball to Miami's playmakers. I think Buffalo is going to smell blood, trying to get to Thompson, and cause him to make some errors. Additionally, knowing Thompson's weaknesses will allow Buffalo to be able to put another guy up front to slow down the running game, which to many people's surprise gave Buffalo some issues in their last match-up

On the flip side, I think we are going to see a sharp outing from the Bills offense. They played OK against New England, but definitely didn't seem like their normal selves. Buffalo tends to be a nice "bounce-back" team, and I think you see a nice performance here. I don't trust Miami's defense to be able to stop Allen, and so I think he has a big game

It's a lot of points, but with QB issues for Miami and game being in Buffalo, going to lay them

 

[stormtrooper8]

Vikings -3 -105


f*** this game. I don't trust either of these teams, but I'm going to take Minnesota

I'm not going to argue that the Vikings are a good team, but I think the Giants don't have the personnel to fully take advantage of Minnesota's glaring weakness: their pass defense. You could probably throw Georgia or Ohio State's secondary on the field against the Giants and expect similar results -- that's how bad Minnesota is back there. But the reality is New York just doesn't have the playmakers on the perimeter to fully exploit the holes in the secondary. Combine that with the fact that Daniel Jones is a complete stooge when it comes to throwing, and I think this is the one playoff match-up is one that Minnesota is content with. The Vikings haven't exactly been stout against the run either, and maybe that's an area the Giants will try to exploit. But their ground game hasn't been nearly as effective as when they got off to a hot start

New York is pretty good in a couple areas defensively -- opponent red zone TD's and passing completion % stand out, but they still have had tendency to be pretty leaky , especially in the second half of the year. I don't trust Kirk Cousins, but I think his weapons are going to be able to get favorable one-on-one match ups and make enough plays to pull this out. I think a couple wins at the end of the year against mediocre teams hid the fact that the Giants have actually been sort of in a mini-free fall for a while.

The Vikings are frauds in the big picture, but they are playing a team that you could argue is a below average NFL team at home, where Minnesota is considerably better than on the road. I think the lines on Minnesota have shifted over the last several weeks where the "Vikings are fraud" edge has kind of diminished, and 3 feels like a fair number

Gimme the Vikings

 

[Tanko]

I just can't see the Vikings winning this game.

Their strength of schedule this year was 30th!!!! They played an easier schedule and barely won A LOT of games.



Fun fact.... 49ers Strength of Schedule was 32nd (yep dead a$$ last).

 

[stormtrooper8]

Bucs +2.5 -110

Should be noted, this is not a reaction to Dallas' bad performance against Washington...if anything, that game gives me more reason to be cautious when it comes to this game.

I think Tampa's offense, while it has been mostly bad this year, has been starting to at least show some signs of life. Not including their two wins near the end of the year to wrap up the division, they also were able to move the ball effectively against a tough Cincinnati team before that epic/weird turnover meltdown. I'm not saying they are going to light up Dallas' defense or anything like that -- because I do think the match-up of Dallas pass rush vs that Bucs o line is a little worrisome. But I do think they are going to be able to move the ball effectively enough to give themselves a shot in this game.

On the other side, I think a couple of things work in Tampa's favor. Tampa has already shut down Dallas' offense once this year (granted it was early), and I think the personnel they have up front are going to be able to neutralize the Cowboy rushing attack quite a bit. The game will shift then to Dak Prescott, who has been struggling as of late. I think Dak is capable enough to win this game, but there always seems to be some barrier for him in these higher leverage moments. And i think going against the GOAT in his building, it could be a tough spot for him

I don't trust either of these coaches much, so not going to say McCarthy clock management a factor as much here as I don't see Bowles doing much better. Kind of a wash in coaching

I'll take Bucs at home


Good luck everyone on their action

 

[stormtrooper8]

I just can't see the Vikings winning this game.

Their strength of schedule this year was 30th!!!! They played an easier schedule and barely won A LOT of games.



Fun fact.... 49ers Strength of Schedule was 32nd (yep dead a$$ last).

I don't believe in SOS much on the pro level.

Not saying it doesn't matter, but just not something I lean on or anything like that

 

[stormtrooper8]

Summary:

49ers -10 -105
Chargers -1 +100
Bills -13 -110
Vikings -105
Ravens +8 -105
Bucs +2.5 -110

Good luck all

 

[Tanko]

Summary:

49ers -10 -105
Chargers -1 +100
Bills -13 -110
Vikings -105
Ravens +8 -105
Bucs +2.5 -110

Good luck all

GL ST.
I hope you at least win the 1st 3 listed....

 

[stormtrooper8]

Guess I'm Venditto's next stalking victim

 

[stormtrooper8]

GL ST.
I hope you at least win the 1st 3 listed....

Which 3?

 

[Tanko]

Which 3?

49ers -10 -105
Chargers -1 +100
Bills -13 -110

We be aligned but only through the top of the list.
I like Giants and Bengals and the Dal/TB game is not on my card.

 

[stormtrooper8]

49ers -10 -105
Chargers -1 +100
Bills -13 -110

We be aligned but only through the top of the list.
I like Giants and Bengals and the Dal/TB game is not on my card.

I am ok with you being right about Bengals