Stormtrooper8 NFL 2022

[stormtrooper8]

Coming off a banner year. Gonna post all my action in here.

Assume + wagers are risking 1 unit, - wagers are to win 1 unit unless otherwise noted


0-0 ytd


Sept 8

Rams ML +120


Week 1 can always be a little hard to gauge, and nothing really will surprise in this game or really others. So that should be said. But I do think the Rams are going to pull out a win here.

I don't think the home field matters that much -- it's not a secret that the LA crowds are not exactly the best in the league, and the Bills Faithful should travel well. But I do think there will be some extra energy in the building because of ring night, and I do think the underdog status for the Rams may serve as some bulletin board material.

As far as x's and o's go, I think the Rams are going to be able to run the ball at least somewhat effectively, and give them an overall balanced attack. Buffalo is a good defensive team all the way around, but they recently have tended to struggle against upper tier teams that have some balance, and this is one of those teams. If the bet is that adding Von Miller suddenly erases that and makes this a top of the league defense, then I don't love that bet.

I also think Buffalo is a little too dependent on Allen, and that is not a good recipe to beat a strong defense like the Rams. Allen has improved a lot as a passer, but he still has quite a ways to go. I think teams that really can give the Rams trouble are the ones who have QB's who can get the ball out on the perimeter quickly, and I don't think the Bills are really that type of team.

Would it shock me if Buffalo won? Not at all. But I do think the Rams are top to bottom a better team. Also worth noting: the elbow of Matthew Stafford should be a complete non-factor in this game.


I'll start the season off with a ML dog!

GL this season all!

 

[Wagerallsports]

GL with it storm

 

[BobbyFK]

Good luck with the play! I tend to agree here

 

[Enikk]

gL this season!!

 

[lemartinsports]

atta boy, now thats a freakin write up. you should write articles

stafford played with a hurt elbow last season and look how that ended up. should be a nice dog play here. i have them +2.5. good luck stormy

 

[lemartinsports]

how do you feel bout the raiders

 

[stormtrooper8]

how do you feel bout the raiders

I am probably going to make a play on them. I'm looking at 7-8 plays this week including the Rams play, and Raiders are probably one of them (though one of the ones I have slightly less confidence in)

In general, I really like them. I think they have outside shot to win the division, though I have them 2nd behind Chiefs at the moment

 

[stormtrooper8]

Sep. 11 (early games)


Commanders ML -135

Neither of these teams are expected to truly contend, but I do think this Washington team has a pretty average roster -- and that's enough for me to like them to beat a below average roster at home when the Jags come to town.

I think Commanders may be a team that is undervalued in the early part of the season because of Chase Young being out. While he is important to their defense, I still think they have enough disruptors up front to take advantage of a bad Jaguars offensive line.

Contrary to how some may feel, the Commanders have the QB edge in this match-up. Wentz doesn't suck, even though he has some poor tendencies at times. I think Lawrence, though he should improve a little bit, is more likely to make a game-changing mistake.

I think this game has the potential to go down to the wire, so I am willing to play this game SU instead of the line. I could totally see Washington by 1 or 2, so going to cover that risk by betting a little more.


Patriots +3.5 -105

I think this also should be a tight game. I think the difference here though will be New England's ability to run the ball. As much as Miami has done to upgrade its roster offensively, I think they will be frustrated a little bit on the other side of the ball as the Patriots pound the rock and control the clock. People aren't high on Mac Jones, and frankly that's reasonable -- he played OK last year, but he has a very low ceiling and don't think he's going to improve that much. But this offensive line is great at run-blocking, to the point where they can control a game even if the passing threat isn't there (see their game in Buffalo last year)

The big uncertainty for the Dolphins to me is if their offensive line is going to be able to give Tua enough time, and if Tua can utilize Hill/Waddle with the long ball. Tua should be able to get the ball to Hill in shorter passing situations, but the Patriots defense I think will be excellent at sniffing that out and limiting the damage. If Hill can break out for a couple deep ones, that can be a huge difference. I just don't think he will be able to though.

3.5 is always a tricky number, since it's tempting to take a dog, but I do think it's merited here. Not shocked if this is a game that is decided by a field goal, so that half point might be crucial here.

Side note --> if this plays out like I think it should, might be worth looking at playing the under in this one. 46 seems a little high, but I'm not a big total guy


Bengals -6.5 -110

This is not a homer pick, I swear. I normally do not bet Bengals games, and if I do a lot of times I actually fade them. But I do really like them in this spot to start the year.

I'm actually higher on the Steelers than I think a lot of people are, and think their defensive prowess and great coaching is going to keep them in a lot of games. But I think they're one of those teams that will show improvement over the course of the year -- regardless of who is at quarterback.

While I think the Bengals are loaded on offense, and the offensive line should be considerably better, I think a lot of people are sleeping on Cincinnati's defense. With that pass rushing ability, against Pittsburgh's offensive line, they should be able to give Trubisky some serious issues. When you add on the fact that Cincinnati is pretty strong in the secondary, I could see some rushed passes resulting in a couple picks and some generally bad plays.

This is one of those games where I think the Bengals don't have to play that well to win by a touchdown. They have a clear talent edge, they're at home, and they match up well. Divisional dogs are always tough, but I think this is one that goes Cincy's way.


49ers -7 -105

If this numbers becomes smaller now that Kittle is dinged up, so be it; I'll sprinkle on when the time comes. To me this is really all about the Bears offensive line vs the Niners defensive front. San Francisco's defensive line is going to give a lot of team's issues this year -- even the stronger offensive lines they face. This obviously is one of the worst (if not THE worst) offensive line in the league.

I am a Justin Fields fan given the Ohio State ties, but I hate that he plays in Chicago in this situation. Can his playmaking ability with his legs make up for some of the trouble he's about to face? Maybe a play here and there, but I can't see how Chicago can sustain any sort of productive offense in this game.

Their best hope is that Lance makes some youngster mistakes, which I suppose is possible. I don't think it happens though. I see this as a route, or at least a comfortable two score win for the Niners


Saints/Falcons over 42.5 -105

I actually thought about betting on the home team in this game, but just couldn't bring myself to do it. I do think they will be able to put up enough points to get this this point total over. The Falcons are a terrible defensive team, but they at least have a playmaker in Pitts and an offensive line that's really not that bad. I also could see Mariota playing with his a chip on his shoulder given his weird journey in the league/lack of opportunity recently. I think maybe he overperforms in this game

I'm not huge on the Saints, and don't think they bring a lot to the table offensively, but again -- Atlanta is just god awful on defense. I think even if Jameis throws a couple of picks, he's gonna have opportunities to move up and down the field on this team.

I think asking for a 24-21 type of game or higher scoring is not much.

 

[stormtrooper8]

Only two in the later slot, and passing on the prime time games.


Sep 11. (later games)


Raiders +3.5 -110


I like the Raiders in this spot. This game is in Los Angeles, but it probably is going to feel like a Raiders home game or at worst a neutral site game. So getting 3.5 for two fairly close teams in that situation seems like a pretty nice deal.

From a pure x's and o's standpoint, I think the Chargers are going to be prone to struggling with teams that have a solid running attack. I think the Raiders are going to look to run the ball early and often, and that could freeze up the Chargers defense a bit -- LA is not a good team against the run, something that I think a lot of experts are not taking into account enough. They totally can and will get shredded at times this year. If LA does adjust, then you are gonna have some good opportunities to get the ball to Adams/Waller/Renfrow. The Chargers should be able to have success offensively for obvious reasons (AKA Raiders defense is meh at best), but don't think they are going to be able to contain a more balanced Raiders offense

These AFC West games should be pretty tight all year long. Only cautionary thought here is that the Chargers may be out for revenge of some sort -- even though they basically kept themselves out of the playoffs last year.


Titans -5.5 -105

This is definitely one of my favorite plays this weekend. While the Titans may take a step back this year, I do think they may be a little more formidable than people realize. Robert Woods aka Bobby Trees is going to be a nice replacement for their losses out on the perimeter -- chiefly AJ Brown. Derrick Henry is still a beast, and Ryan Tannehill is still serviceable enough to steer the ship when he has a running game that is working and the defense isn't too formidable -- like against the Giants

Looking more at this individual match-up, the determining factor here for me will be the Titans pass rush against the Giants offensive line. I think there is a huge mismatch here that I think is going to give the very mistake-prone Daniel Jones some serious issues getting the ball out to his "weapons." They may try to counter with some quick handoffs out of shotgun to Barkley, but I think Barkley will be met by some solid players in the middle of this Tennessee defense.

I just don't think winning by a touchdown is much to ask for a solid team against a pretty bad one at home. The Titans did get skunked at home in Week 1 last year, which I think helps them here in a sense -- Vrabel is a good coach and will make sure they don't lay an egg in Week 1 again....I think



Good luck everyone in Week 1

 

[stormtrooper8]

Might sprinkle on as we get closer to kick off of those Sunday games, but here is the slate for this week for the TLDR crowd....


Rams ML
Commanders ML

Saints/Falcons over 42.5

Patriots +3.5
Bengals -6.5
49ers -7
Raiders +3.5
Titans -5.5


I try to do 5 spread picks a week then do 2-3 more on a total or ML, maybe occasional player prof

Good luck all

 

[Wagerallsports]

Lots of action week 1 love it

 

[lemartinsports]

I am probably going to make a play on them. I'm looking at 7-8 plays this week including the Rams play, and Raiders are probably one of them (though one of the ones I have slightly less confidence in)

In general, I really like them. I think they have outside shot to win the division, though I have them 2nd behind Chiefs at the moment

youve got a good amount of plays out my guy. i have something on the raiders as well, so this should be interesting.

good luck dude, gunna finish reading your write ups

 

[Tanko]

Stormtrooper, how many NFL plays (sides) a week do you average?
Big card for week 1.
GL

 

[stormtrooper8]

Stormtrooper, how many NFL plays (sides) a week do you average?
Big card for week 1.
GL

I did pick5 last year and tend to stick to exactly 5 spread plays a week. 58-32 last year, hoping we can get to 60 this year -- though that may be wishful

I throw some ML/totals occasionally

 

[stormtrooper8]

Great showing by the Bills tonight. Very impressive.

Surprised the Rams couldn't get anything going on the ground, which I think is how everything unraveled.

Also didn't think they came out of flat that way many seemed to think they would

Hope this doesn't doom the rest of my card

 

[chuckythegoat]

GL, stormy. HOW good was your 2021 season?

Bloodbath for me on Rams. Think a lot of guys get skulled on that game.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Great showing by the Bills tonight. Very impressive.

Surprised the Rams couldn't get anything going on the ground, which I think is how everything unraveled.

Also didn't think they came out of flat that way many seemed to think they would

Hope this doesn't doom the rest of my card

Just one game don't sweat it

 

[stormtrooper8]

Gonna snag some early action this week. Typically I pick every week against the spread but only put action on 5 or so. What really sucked about Week 1 is I threw dough on 5 losers, but went 8-8 overall. So 8-3 on the ones I stayed away from

At least I'm unbeaten on totals at a blistering 1-0

My most confident ones sucked!

Week 1 sucks y'all

 

[stormtrooper8]

I almost threw down on Seattle last night, with possibly even a ML sprinkle. But I wanted to practice disciple.

Oof

 

[stormtrooper8]

Record: 2-6 -4.35

The typical Week 1 shit show. Last couple years I have responded well, but we'll see how it goes. Got this one early but I would take anything really cheaper than -250 if it starts to climb more over next 36 hours

I do pick every game ATS, but the ones getting write-ups are the ones I have my action on/ones in the record. I will post my picks for all the games after the write-ups like the screenshot two above. Hopefully I am right on the ones I have most action lol


Sep. 15

Chiefs ML -195

I really like Kansas City here. I thought Sunday was a good barometer to see where these teams are, and obviously the Chiefs were more impressive, but I was pretty down on how the Chargers played despite the win. A divisional win is never easy, but to barely hold on when your opposition doesn't execute is/hands you the ball a few times is not encouraging. The Chargers really struggled to get the run game going, and frankly they were handed some nice officiating as well.

Kansas City meanwhile looks like a team that is wanting to avenge the shit show from last year to my Bengals. They are on a mission, and don't want to dick around at the beginning of the year like last year.

I do expect LA to play better than it did Sunday, but I think the Chiefs will find a way to win even if it does get closer than perhaps it should. I would lean KC on the line here as well, but going to play the moneyline.