purplegrape
- Joined
- Apr 27, 2023
- Messages
- 428
Plays and basketball forecasts
Model using season long and recent team stats up until April 4 and then plaoffs in attempt to exclude low importance games,
Doesn't account for injuries, player stats, or trades, very flawed, I try to manually adjust and feel it out
Total forecasts are usually too high possibly due to incorporating league average game totals over previous 2 seasons
Model retrained in off seasons and overfit due to poor hyperparameter tuning
Other odds-based indicators are not posted
Regular season model not trained on playoffs, playoff games/stats fed into model to generate playoffs forecasts
Model doesn't specifically know its playoffs except in form of recency stats
Model using season long and recent team stats up until April 4 and then plaoffs in attempt to exclude low importance games,
Doesn't account for injuries, player stats, or trades, very flawed, I try to manually adjust and feel it out
Total forecasts are usually too high possibly due to incorporating league average game totals over previous 2 seasons
Model retrained in off seasons and overfit due to poor hyperparameter tuning
Other odds-based indicators are not posted
Regular season model not trained on playoffs, playoff games/stats fed into model to generate playoffs forecasts
Model doesn't specifically know its playoffs except in form of recency stats
| gameCode | homeLine/total |
|---|---|
| 20250415/ATL/ORL | -4.7 |
| 20250415/ATL/ORL | 222.7 |
| 20250415/MEM/GSW | -3.1 |
| 20250415/MEM/GSW | 235.1 |
| 20250416/DAL/SAC | 0.2 |
| 20250416/DAL/SAC | 237.4 |
| 20250416/MIA/CHI | -1.1 |
| 20250416/MIA/CHI | 238.1 |
| 20250419/DET/NYK | 231.2 |
| 20250419/DET/NYK | -4.8 |
| 20250419/LAC/DEN | -1.7 |
| 20250419/LAC/DEN | 231.2 |
| 20250419/MIL/IND | 241 |
| 20250419/MIL/IND | -4 |
| 20250419/MIN/LAL | 0.7 |
| 20250419/MIN/LAL | 229.5 |
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