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purplegrape

purplegrape

Joined
Apr 27, 2023
Messages
429
Fried as in finished?
Motherboard stopped supplying power to the CPU fan. Laptop will overheat and shut down for thermal protection if I try to run the modeling software. Gonna try to rig up a wall-connected 5V usb charger directly to the fan as an external power source. My soldering, hand steadiness, and electronics skills are not good enough to attempt repairing the motherboard, I’d probably do more damage than good. Repair costs probably too much. Hoping my diy solution holds me over until it’s time to buy a new laptop.
 

JDS

JDS

Joined
Dec 11, 2021
Messages
54,483
How's the model doing so far with these plays PG ?
 

purplegrape

purplegrape

Joined
Apr 27, 2023
Messages
429
How's the model doing so far with these plays PG ?

Hard to say JDS. NBA SL is a technical indicator based strategy inspired by my college football totals tracking strategy, no forecasting. I only have European lines for NBA SL in my database. Openers hitting 10% ROI on B365, 15% ROI on Pin-E since 2017 but who knows if you could've gotten down on comparable lines onshore/offshore for USA players. Strategy supposed to start on Day 2 of SL. Overnight lines are harder to get down onshore. I turned a profit last year but didn't get down on all the triggers. Hard to say how profitable it can be for USA players. I noticed the books started setting lines lower as the games went on last year, not sure if it will be a repeat this year. WNBA models are crap and I skip plays due to manual injury adjustments so hard to backtest the profitability. I have low faith in my WNBA plays after retraining the models and stopped posting them.
 
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JDS

JDS

Joined
Dec 11, 2021
Messages
54,483
Hard to say JDS. NBA SL is a technical indicator based strategy inspired by my college football totals tracking strategy, no forecasting. I only have European lines for NBA SL in my database. Openers hitting 10% ROI on B365, 15% ROI on Pin-E since 2017 but who knows if you could've gotten down on comparable lines onshore/offshore for USA players. Strategy supposed to start on Day 2 of SL. Overnight lines are harder to get down onshore. I turned a profit last year but didn't get down on all the triggers. Hard to say how profitable it can be for USA players. I noticed the books started setting lines lower as the games went on last year, not sure if it will be a repeat this year. WNBA models are crap and I skip plays due to manual injury adjustments so hard to backtest the profitability. I have low faith in my WNBA plays after retraining the models and stopped posting them.

PG your NBA Summer League strategy sounds intriguing, especially drawing from your college football totals tracking approach. Sticking to technical indicators without forecasting makes sense for the unpredictable nature of SL games, smart move keeping it data driven. Those ROI figures are impressive 10% on Bet365 and 15% on Pinnacle since 2017 is nothing to sneeze at !

It’s tough to know if USA players could match those returns with onshore/offshore books, since accessing comparable lines can be a hassle, especially with overnight lines being trickier to bet onshore. Keep doing your thing & you will iron out all the imperfections with this model.
 

purplegrape

purplegrape

Joined
Apr 27, 2023
Messages
429
PG your NBA Summer League strategy sounds intriguing, especially drawing from your college football totals tracking approach. Sticking to technical indicators without forecasting makes sense for the unpredictable nature of SL games, smart move keeping it data driven. Those ROI figures are impressive 10% on Bet365 and 15% on Pinnacle since 2017 is nothing to sneeze at !

It’s tough to know if USA players could match those returns with onshore/offshore books, since accessing comparable lines can be a hassle, especially with overnight lines being trickier to bet onshore. Keep doing your thing & you will iron out all the imperfections with this model.


JDS, thank you so much for taking the time to share that thoughtful encouragement. Your positive words are greatly appreciated and will certainly contribute to my ongoing motivation to refine this strategy further. I fully acknowledge the complexities involved with overnight lines, especially the challenges associated with getting sufficient volume down onshore before significant line movement occurs.

Leveraging a purely technical indicator-based approach for NBA Summer League aligns well with the inherent unpredictability of player rotations, coaching experiments, and limited defensive intensity. Your recognition of the historical ROI figures is encouraging and reinforces the potential value in continuing to optimize this methodology.

I am committed to improving my execution this season, ensuring I capture more of the actionable triggers that were missed previously due to timing constraints or market inefficiencies. Your supportive feedback provides additional momentum as I aim to maximize the edge before bookmakers fully adjust.

Once again, thank you for your encouraging message. I wish you continued success in all your wagering endeavors. Together, may we navigate the evolving betting landscape and extract sustainable value from the markets. 📊🤝
 
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