Powell seems to be uninterested in Trump's desires that is for sure. I'm confident he will do what is best for the country and not a political party.
On-Again/Off-Again Tariffs Wreaking Havoc on Markets
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MinnesotaFats
- Joined
- Nov 1, 2021
- Messages
- 4,249
Car guys want 30 days to ramp up inventory.
The UE #s will justify a June cut alone. A second cut in July after b2b quarters of slow growth (we transition from a govt based spending economy (aka debt) to organic investment (aka deflation) will justify a sencond cut).
Macoeconimcs of his plan are simple, if not outdated.
sharpsquare
- Joined
- Nov 26, 2021
- Messages
- 2,918
hopefully but doubtfully. i think its more so that these other countries will not back down they will punch back and that fact is now well known. and the markets are responding negatively to it and that has trump and company spooked.
sharpsquare
- Joined
- Nov 26, 2021
- Messages
- 2,918
Powell has been rock solid
YYY isn't a REIT but is a bit overweight in some real estate and health care. It owns reits but isn't one.
The entry point is important here and it's pretty much at that point when looking at the charts. There could be some more downside, but it's a decent time to accumulate.
Same with tobacco stocks we were talking about. I'm less concerned with the principal for this set of funds and seeking yield. While there will be volatility, I would accept that none of these high yielding positions stay flat or even drop over a pretty far out time frame. If the markets are flat, so be it.
YYY itself made some changes that shifted our outlook in it, but it's still not the greatest investment, even in a defensive environment. Hopefully it doesn't continue to depreciate and get forced into dividend cuts, as the total return over time has taken a hit from those areas.
I voted for him because he said everything would be fixed on Day 1.....
The issue now, with the on/off/on/off, is that Canada and Mexico (and most of the businesses in the US) are wondering if he'll "cry wolf" again in April. Not a good look.
A day after pausing the tariffs on Canada, Trump is indicating they could be back on today on dairy and lumber materials. The back and forth is driving investors and business leaders crazy.
The market dropped on the news, again, but rebounded when Fed Reserve Powell came out and said the economy looks pretty good. Maybe we'll get interest rate cut this summer like Minny is projecting.
The market dropped on the news, again, but rebounded when Fed Reserve Powell came out and said the economy looks pretty good. Maybe we'll get interest rate cut this summer like Minny is projecting.
Based on todays jobs report - I’d say the likelihood of rate cuts is increasing.
Tariffs and market performance won’t make a difference - but jobs will. Fed realizes it’s a delicate balancing act to keep the overall economy working.
Tariffs only affect specific goods - housing and autos for example as well as tech from China. It won’t for example make the price of an iPhone go up - the margins will just be forced to absorb the tariff and Apple will just jack the price of a subscription. The cheap stuff from China will go up - but again now you’re paying $20 for what was $15 - unlikely to upset the apple cart. Houses - buyers will just move to existing vs new - new is already having issues selling in many areas - so home builders will be able to dump excess inventory and welcome the tariffs initially- ditto automakers with excess inventory.
What’s going to hurt though is the view of continued weakness in the job market/employment. Look at today’s report and the bump in low skilled labor. Trumps immigration policies have taken a lot of that labor out of the workforce - people are scared of deportation and starting to go underground. They aren’t taking the low end jobs and work visas are no longer being passed out. Then you have a flood of government employees looking to move to private sector - again the workforce was already tightening before they hit - places had been hoarding employees knowing it was hard to hire in 2023 - that changed and the need to over staff is no more. Suddenly there is a qualified applicant for every job in many cases and in some industries multiple - unlike 2023 when there were 2+ jobs for every available applicant.
Fed knows we have the perfectly thread the needle here - misjudge it and the house of cards could topple like 2007-2008. Trump just adds a layer of chaos into everything - because he can. He likes theatrics and this last week has been no different.
Remember relatively few make their day to day income off the stock market - but it affects consumer confidence. You look at your 401k and it’s dropping every month and you start hearing your employer is not profitable and cutting back - you’re less likely to spend. One way to promote that spending is putting more $$ in your pocket/reducing the cost of borrowing. People react to what they see/feel. If the price of eggs is $9 - we think the economy is shit (despite the fact the average household probably uses a couple of dozen eggs a month). Ditto mortgages - start passing out for more 3-4% rates on housing and suddenly people start spending again. Keep rates at 7% and the borrowing slows dramatically. Until we cut rates - it could be a very bumpy ride.
Tariffs and market performance won’t make a difference - but jobs will. Fed realizes it’s a delicate balancing act to keep the overall economy working.
Tariffs only affect specific goods - housing and autos for example as well as tech from China. It won’t for example make the price of an iPhone go up - the margins will just be forced to absorb the tariff and Apple will just jack the price of a subscription. The cheap stuff from China will go up - but again now you’re paying $20 for what was $15 - unlikely to upset the apple cart. Houses - buyers will just move to existing vs new - new is already having issues selling in many areas - so home builders will be able to dump excess inventory and welcome the tariffs initially- ditto automakers with excess inventory.
What’s going to hurt though is the view of continued weakness in the job market/employment. Look at today’s report and the bump in low skilled labor. Trumps immigration policies have taken a lot of that labor out of the workforce - people are scared of deportation and starting to go underground. They aren’t taking the low end jobs and work visas are no longer being passed out. Then you have a flood of government employees looking to move to private sector - again the workforce was already tightening before they hit - places had been hoarding employees knowing it was hard to hire in 2023 - that changed and the need to over staff is no more. Suddenly there is a qualified applicant for every job in many cases and in some industries multiple - unlike 2023 when there were 2+ jobs for every available applicant.
Fed knows we have the perfectly thread the needle here - misjudge it and the house of cards could topple like 2007-2008. Trump just adds a layer of chaos into everything - because he can. He likes theatrics and this last week has been no different.
Remember relatively few make their day to day income off the stock market - but it affects consumer confidence. You look at your 401k and it’s dropping every month and you start hearing your employer is not profitable and cutting back - you’re less likely to spend. One way to promote that spending is putting more $$ in your pocket/reducing the cost of borrowing. People react to what they see/feel. If the price of eggs is $9 - we think the economy is shit (despite the fact the average household probably uses a couple of dozen eggs a month). Ditto mortgages - start passing out for more 3-4% rates on housing and suddenly people start spending again. Keep rates at 7% and the borrowing slows dramatically. Until we cut rates - it could be a very bumpy ride.
flyingillini
- Joined
- Jul 25, 2022
- Messages
- 19,658
You gotta love the crypto guys when the market is down they say " it's on sale"
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