Now Is The Time To Bet The Eagles

[fishhead]

Then you add to this illogical thinking by saying the line already has Hurts playing built in?

It does

 

[KVB]

Incorrect.

Home team gets 3 points in every line.

So this means the Eagles are really only 1.5 point favs at home after beating them by 5 in another country?

Then you add to this illogical thinking by saying the line already has Hurts playing built in?

I think you're the one who's confused.

I was about to come in saying it's a decent discussion, but this is wrong.

Home team DOES NOT get 3 points in every line. I can prove that mathematically but everyone already knows it's not the HFA of 20 or 30 years ago.

As far as being confused, I'm not the one saying the line should be 7, when it's not.

 

[KVB]

It does

Exactly.

He's still thinking there's an automatic 3 points added to home field.

Fish, we know better.

 

[KVB]

Philly don't take it personally when I say confused.

You are having trouble reconciling this line, we are trying to help you.

 

[KVB]

And again, the result of the game Sunday has nothing to do with this discussion.

So don't make that mistake after the fact.

 

[fishhead]

Agreed.

I think both teams might be better now.

That was a season ago when they played, lol.

What do you think, is GB better now?

That's a worthy discussion.

Watson out
Doubs questionable
---------------------------
PACK DL and LB better now
==========================================

Cooper DeJean did not play week one, huge part of phillys success................tremendous against the run, 78 targets at him through the air, zero td's allowed.

 

[KVB]

It does

@fishhead what do you think about Packers 1st quarter moneyline?

Look at the average 1st quarter points between the two teams.

It's an interesting look.

 

[phillyflyers]

I was about to come in saying it's a decent discussion, but this is wrong.

Home team DOES NOT get 3 points in every line. I can prove that mathematically but everyone already knows it's not the HFA of 20 or 30 years ago.

As far as being confused, I'm not the one saying the line should be 7, when it's not.

The line definitely shouldn't be only 4.5

Especially when they already best them by more than that playing away from home.

Now they're in Philly.

Green Bay hasn't beaten a top team all season.

0-5 v Eagles, Vikings, and Lions.

They aren't in the same tier and this line is clearly wrong.

 

[fishhead]

@fishhead what do you think about Packers 1st quarter moneyline?

Look at the average 1st quarter points between the two teams.

It's an interesting look.

Probably a decent play with Lafleur as HC

 

[fishhead]

The line definitely shouldn't be only 4.5

That's the market guy

 

[fishhead]

I personally thought -6 or -6.5 was the correct market price.

Think we see -6 before kickoff

 

[phillyflyers]

This debate will be settled after the Eagles win by 20+

 

[KVB]

This debate will be seated after the Eagles win by 20+

Again, no.

And again, the result of the game Sunday has nothing to do with this discussion.

So don't make that mistake after the fact.

 

[fishhead]

This debate will be settled after the Eagles win by 20+

Thats not the way it works guy

 

[KVB]

I personally thought -6 or -6.5 was the correct market price.

Think we see -6 before kickoff

Yeah, if the pressure is there it should blow through 5.

If not, and the pressure is there, GB heads into Contrarian territory.

Could be the aim of the current market, making @phillyflyers more precise on the line, even if his reasons aren’t sound.

 

[phillyflyers]

Thats not the way it works guy

Says who?

Nobody controls the narrative here. This is a civil discussion/debate.

KVB point that the line is built in with Hurts playing is illogical. For reasons already stated.

My point was the opposite. The line indicates it ISN'T taking Hurts playing into account otherwise it would rightfully be more.

I do believe it's waiting for an official announcement. At which point, we'll see a correction I assume.

 

[KVB]

Says who?

Nobody controls the narrative here. This is a civil discussion/debate.

KVB point that the line is built in with Hurts playing is illogical. For reasons already stated.

My point was the opposite. The line indicates it ISN'T taking Hurts playing into account otherwise it would rightfully be more.

I do believe it's waiting for an official announcement. At which point, we'll see a correction I assume.

Fish is right though.

None of this discussion has to do with what happens on Sunday and the final score of the game.

It's ok though, I can see why you think it does, as many bettors fall into that trap.

It often comes down to not understanding the purpose of the line and thinking the line is some kind of score prediction, which it can be, but doesn't have to be, only after making the jump to understanding efficiency, wisdom of crowds, and some other bullshit.

The line will get favorite pressure, for sure, by Sunday, but Hurts is factored into the current line.

 

[phillyflyers]

Fish is right though.

None of this discussion has to do with what happens on Sunday and the final score of the game.

It's ok though, I can see why you think it does, as many bettors fall into that trap.

It often comes down to not understanding the purpose of the line and thinking the line is some kind of score prediction, which it can be, but doesn't have to be, only after making the jump to understanding efficiency, wisdom of crowds, and some other bullshit.

The line will get favorite pressure, for sure, by Sunday, but Hurts is factored into the current line.

I haven't heard a logical explanation why, yet.

 

[KVB]

I haven't heard a logical explanation why, yet.

The case has been made and at least some evidence laid out.

One thing to note is that Philly cut Ian Book, a backup QB who was on the active roster for the last two weeks of the season.

So with Hurts praciticing more and more through the end of the week and the QB getting cut, it sure looks like Hurts is playing Sunday.

I maintain that the market will be far more shocked to hear he isn't playing than that he is playing.

What I posted above and the fact that he has remained probable is why it is built inot the line.

Bro, don't take this the wrong way, but I've seen some of the stuff you post.

Do you really think that it is some genius move to by now because it's such a great deal when they announce he plays? There is money well ahead of you in that thinking.

It does not mean the line won't rise, but it likely would have that pressure closer to game time anyway, as Fish noted.

You might think it's because of Hurts, but I know it's not, save for a few public dollars like yours.

@fishhead and I professionals, read our posts. We are not trying to fight with you here.

 

[KVB]

I maintain that the market will be far more shocked to hear he isn't playing than that he is playing.

This is what I'm saying and it isn't necessarily wrong if the line goes up before game time and Hurts is the starter.

I don't have to be right, but analyzing the market is what I do.

Hurts is built in here.