Need an College play tonight

[quantumleap]

Arkansas hoops

Kinda chalky - but Ohio over Kent State - Ohio looking for 6th win va a winless (and hapless) Kent team - look for Ohio to roll.

Kent State's run defense is the worst in the nation giving up over 250 ypg. Ohio averages about 200 rushing ypg. Even a sub could run against KSU.

KSU only averages 77 rushing ypg. That translates into Ohio outrushing KSU. Teams that outrush their opponent by at least 125 yards cover the spread 70% of the time. If they outrush an opponent by 175 yards they cover the spread 75% of the time.

 

[JDS]

Kent State's run defense is the worst in the nation giving up over 250 ypg. Ohio averages about 200 rushing ypg. Even a sub could run against KSU.

KSU only averages 77 rushing ypg. That translates into Ohio outrushing KSU. Teams that outrush their opponent by at least 125 yards cover the spread 70% of the time. If they outrush an opponent by 175 yards they cover the spread 75% of the time.

Going back how many years do you know of this data ? Seems pretty significant.

 

[fiftycint]

college hoops starts earlier every year....nuts....I remember when Thanksgiving would be the first game...now teams have 7 -8 games by Thanksgiving

 

[djefferis]

36-19 at half - Rutgers

So basically just need Rutgers to win the 2nd half to cover - pretty nice position to be in.

Now need Ohio and Arkansas to cover - at least 1 and I’ll have a decent day.

 

[djefferis]

Kent State's run defense is the worst in the nation giving up over 250 ypg. Ohio averages about 200 rushing ypg. Even a sub could run against KSU.

KSU only averages 77 rushing ypg. That translates into Ohio outrushing KSU. Teams that outrush their opponent by at least 125 yards cover the spread 70% of the time. If they outrush an opponent by 175 yards they cover the spread 75% of the time.

Is the RB for Ohio playing ?

Again - not that it matters. I expect to see Bobcats passing more as KSU secondary is just bad.

 

[djefferis]

Also 6’10” five star recruit Ace Bailey is not playing tonight in the opener.

Yea - Bailey is out but their other 5*(Harper) is in and doing well - 10 points on 4/7 shooting at half.

This duo is worth watching - might even give the Illini a run for the Big 10 this year.

 

[quantumleap]

Is the RB for Ohio playing ?

Again - not that it matters. I expect to see Bobcats passing more as KSU secondary is just bad.

Just saw this now. No, he's out. But Tyus has 74 yards at the half and the Ohio QB has had some long runs in the 1st half.

One of the reasons this works so well is that some defenses get worn out from the run. Hopefully Ohio will run down the KSU defense to cover this spread.

 

[quantumleap]

Going back how many years do you know of this data ? Seems pretty significant.

I have records back to 2006 and the worst year hit at 67%.

Get this though, if a team is a dog and outrushes their opponent by 125 yards, they cover the spread 85% of the time.

 

[JDS]

I have records back to 2006 and the worst year hit at 67%.

Get this though, if a team is a dog and outrushes their opponent by 125 yards, they cover the spread 85% of the time.

Next year post a thread of only these picks and track them so we can all make money !

 

[aikman.tr]

Villanova get dumped by Columbia as 17.5 favorite

 

[quantumleap]

Next year post a thread of only these picks and track them so we can all make money !

Will do. The tricky part is determining ahead of time when a team will outrush the other by 125 yards. Some teams I've bet on will start passing in these matchups for some damn reason. SMH.

 

[JDS]

Will do. The tricky part is determining ahead of time when a team will outrush the other by 125 yards. Some teams I've bet on will start passing in these matchups for some damn reason. SMH.

Don’t you have a certain criteria where you would take a team that matches up with another team to likely achieve this particular stat ?

 

[JDS]

Look for the defense and the run game to travel well tonight in the MAC, take NIU as a small fav vs WMU as I know they are a hot trending team 4-0 in conference play.

Running game is strong and the defense is forcing multiple turnovers, 42-28 late forth quarter.

 

[quantumleap]

Don’t you have a certain criteria where you would take a team that matches up with another team to likely achieve this particular stat ?

At first I was checking teams that had a minimum average yards rushing gained playing against a team that had a minimum average rushing yards but it's more complicated than that.

Then I started playing only teams with wide disparities like this one and eventually wanted more action so I let my standards slip and started losing again..

If I could only stay disciplined and play the games with a wide disparity I think I would do alright.

This Ohio/Kent State game was a blowout from the start.

 

[jjgold]

Discipline is the key we don’t have it

 

[quantumleap]

Discipline is the key we don’t have it

Tell me about it. Especially if you're an action hound like me.

The funny thing is that I go months without betting, from the Super Bowl to the first week of college football.

 

[djefferis]

Well - 2-1 on the picks I gave you.

Ohio easy winner
Rutgers won by 23
Arkansas got beaten by the half point (won by 16)

Remember the days of Skybook - Home of the free half point ? Yea - times like this you miss things like that could have turned a 2-1 into a 2-0 day and effectively doubled your profit.

 

[BMR Genie]

Did Kent State even arrive at the stadium? or they forgot they have a game? lol

 

[sunshine11]

Coastal Carolina +1 system play

 

[JDS]

Coastal Carolina +1 system play

I'm on the opposite side Sunny, describe your system play if you would please ?