My Daily Picks Entry

[Player Prop Savant]

Reason: Miller 22 wins have come by finish of 32 wins (68.7 percent)
Last 4 wins coming in round one
New fighter in Gonzalez to ufc 9/14 wins by finish. 2 of 4 losses by finishThink this screams, Miller early or Gonzalez late. With both of Gonzalez’s losses by finish being submissions, Miller 18 career submission victories see miller getting Rodriguez out early.I’ll take the under 2.5 to cover both sides, plus money is a gift.

 

[Player Prop Savant]

⁃ 287 to Lamar, 275 to cousins 217 to fields 314 to Jimmy G 255 4 touchdowns to Rodgers
⁃ Big play threats in chase and using tight end well now
⁃ Cincy has played 4/5 games within 3 points. Spread 3 points. First two games he missed mixon fully healthy heavy load
⁃ Said he was full go but don’t buy it right away. 70 passes in last 2 weeks
⁃ Fully practiced after neck injury and hit in last 2

 

[Player Prop Savant]

5 wins over last 6 to this number at home for Volendam
4/6 in last 6 away matches for Breda
Over last 10 Volendam averaging 2.6 goals per match at home

 

[Player Prop Savant]

Hit this in 5/7. We expect goals in this one. Ajax defense good in domestic. Now facing haaland, who just scored 2 this weekend. Against third string keeper 38. Lets go!

 

[Player Prop Savant]

No John wall
Last year 8 assists per 36 minutes
25.2 percent usage last season, no wall will give boost.
Should get crazy amount of run at point this year
Pace spot with Minnesota ranking top 10 in pace from last season

 

[Player Prop Savant]

- Injuries are decimating this roster.
- Usage rate already over 28 percent. Miami does well vs Giannis historically but love Giannis in this spot post big win vs Brooklyn.
- No Lopez should open up the rebounds as well.

 

[Player Prop Savant]

- Ingram is the main focal point of offense with no Williamson.
- Bulls a nice pace up spot. 36 minutes last game in a blowout. 38 PRA (25/7/6)
- Better matchup better pace. Should be higher than the 32.5 was listed at last game

 

[Player Prop Savant]

100 percent finish rate on da Silva side
High volume coming from Molina.See this as Molina late or da Silva early.
Da Silva has never even fought in a 3rd round before and Molina could get KO with adrenaline dump after early onslaught by da Silva. See someone Going to sleep.

 

[Player Prop Savant]

No ertz, higher target share. Vegas has allowed 4 TDS to tight ends last 4 weeks
Close game, should see plenty of dump downs underneath to tight ends and backs.

 

[Player Prop Savant]

Negative game script. 4 point dogs. Hit this last weekend with ease vs Steelers
Average yards per completion 6.9 but has a 41 and 23 yard pass, so even lower
Last 2 starts in 2018 and 2017 hit this.
Hit in 4/5 only loss when pulled Rodgers week one
Darnold Heinicke Jones Jones

 

[Player Prop Savant]

Last 5 head to heads this is 5-0.
4-1-1 in last 6 hamburger away matchesHamburger has scored in 70 percent of their first halves and only keeps clean sheet in 40 percent. At worst I see a push.
Hamburger scores 57 percent of goals in first half and concedes 58 percent of their goals in first as well.

 

[Player Prop Savant]

Cleared this in every game this season.
25.3 per game 8 boards and 3.8 assists
We now have a pace up spot for Wolves.
Milwaukee 3rd in league, TWolves 5th.
Fast game cleared this number both times against a much slower New Orleans team (11th) 3 possessions less per game than the bucks.
This is a baited number, without Portis, Lopez and Jrue I don’t see a blowout.
Jrue holiday out, top defender, too athletic for hill and patty.

 

[Player Prop Savant]

No Porzingis in the lineup. Cleared this in every game already this season.
More rebounds to grab now, also, nice 220 total against a spurs team that just allowed 10 to russ, 7 to pat C from bucks and 7 to Barton.
Love this spot for one of the best rebounding guards in league

 

[Player Prop Savant]

Nice pace up matchup for clippers who play at bottom five pace of play
In close games George has cleared this in 2/3.
Grabbed 10 boards in 3/4 games this season
Last season George averaged 30.7 points per game and 8 rebounds vs Portland in 3 match ups

 

[Player Prop Savant]

First fight in ufc for saint denis
100 percent finish rate in his fights so far
Could be adrenaline dump early on and dos Santos is an absolute machine.
Saint denis early dos Santos late finishes.

 

[Player Prop Savant]

Love Winston today. Can’t run on Tampa, but secondary banged up
See kamara being involved in passing game and having the move the ball through the air.

 

[Player Prop Savant]

- Has hit in every game but the injury. 6/7 10 point dogs here, nice game script
- Only 8 percent run block advantage which is very small vs chiefs.
- No Barkley, see passes every where tonight for giants. Chiefs +50 percent running advantage.
- See points scored for chiefs.
- Shepherd expected to play, big safety blanket. Especially post concussion. Booker shown good hands

 

[Player Prop Savant]

1. 10 point loss last game, top pace spot on night. Top two pace teams in NBA this season, both over 105 possessions. Green finished with 17 after getting early foul trouble.
2. Even in blowouts finding 30 plus minutes.
3. Buy low spot here on green 2/21 on threes last 3 games. See regression coming.

 

[Player Prop Savant]

⁃ 6/8 cleared this in. Both losses by hook
⁃ Ton of possessions here in a fast paced both tied at 103.7 plmatch up. Could run plumlee off floor with green at the 5.

 

[Player Prop Savant]

This has hit in 8 of last 10 home matches for ferencvaros and 4/5 for Celtic on road
Celtic road matches seeing about 18 shots for them and over 6 on target.
Celtic on road is not the same team and ferencvaros is averaging 2.7 goals per match at home this season.