Monday July 1-Sunday July 7 MLB

[piratealew]

Crap day yesterday, at least most of the losses were smaller plays and F5's. First bad day in a week so I was due. Rather than play Props tonight, I went with team totals and F5 depending on record, matchup H2H and situation.

989-871YTD/ (505-440 Top plays) Umpire Overs=89-60 Umpire Under=5-2

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Asstros-130

⭐️Mets-104 (FG-Full game)

⭐️Brewers-140 (FG)

⭐️Mets Team Total Over 3.5-135

⭐️Astros/Blow Jays Over 8.5-120

Mets-110 (F5/First 5 innings)-Mets are 4-0-1 in F5 with Peterson

Brewers-128 (F5/First 5 innings)

Astros Team Total Over 4.5-115

Brewers/Rockies Over 10.5-130

 

[inzane]

Good luck Pirate, glad to see most of the plays I put in are the top tier.

 

[piratealew]

***First Umpire Over is Houston/Toronto Over 8.5 with CB Bucknor, who rates out as a moderate hitter friendly Umpire, despite a slightly lower run avg at 8.7 in 15 games in 2024. Through this year and most years he is generally around 63-64% strikes, and a 2.5 SO/BB walks so he leans to giving hitters a more favorable K zone. This year his avg run initiated per game is a high 1.7 and 1.5 runs per game his last 4 years. Toronto's games have resulted in at least nine combined runs in their last eight games, while the red hot astros are avg 6.1 runs per game over their 10-2 run. THy score 19 in the last 2. Their Team BA is first the last 7 days with a .303 and 8th in OPS (.796). Bucknow may be able to squeeze out his usual added 1-2 runs making me more comfortable this goes over 8 as the astros are capable of hitting this themselves given the pitching.

 

[phantom888]

Solid day!

 

[G-Man!]

Good to see you here Phantom!

Solid day!

 

[steelers76]

Solid day!

How are those drugs?

 

[phantom888]

How are those drugs?

Drugs are good, thanks for asking

i usually stick to the top four starred plays

try to stay disciplined

 

[piratealew]

thanks guys, it was a good day thanks to the top 2 plays cashed. 3-2 top plays, 4-5 on all. Better to win the bigger plays, and lose the smaller plays. Back from morning PT for the torn ACL now On to the Tuesday's Grind...

993-876YTD/ (508-442 Top plays) Umpire Overs=89-61 Umpire Under=5-2

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Royals-119
⭐️Baltimore-110
⭐️Mets-125
⭐️Cleveland-1-135
⭐️Houston+107
⭐️Braves-1-125 (Full game)
⭐️Dodgers/Dbacks Over 8.5-115
⭐️Padres+110
⭐️Angels-106
⭐️Yankees-1-130 (Full game)
⭐️San Dog/Texas Over 7.5-110
⭐️Phillies+114
Brewers-113
Pirates-112
Boston-1-130
Twins+105
Cleveland/Chicago Over 8-135
Mets/Nats Over 8.5-128
Dodgers-1-128
Braves-0.5-125 (F5)
Yankees-0.5-125 (F5/First 5 innings)
Boston/Miami Over 7.5-115
Milwaukee/Colorado Over 10.5-125
Baltimore/Seattle Over 7-125
LAA/Oakland Over 7.5-112
StL/Pittsburgh UNDER 8.5-120

Will be monitoring Umpire announcements today.

Hit 6-3 yesterday in EURO and copa, posted on reddit and another but forgot to paste it here so here it goes for today:

For those playing Euro:
Netherlands+100 (First Half ML)/-1+115 (Full game)/Over 5.5 Corners
Austria ML-105/BTTS-110/Over 2.5 goals+100

Copa:
Colombia Double chance (Win or Draw)-105/Over 2.5 goals+120
Costa Rica Double Chance-110/UNDER 2.5

 

[piratealew]

***First Umpire Over is Clev/Chicago Over 8 with Emil Jiminez who is 8-7 to the over this year on 9.19 runs per game, 63% strikes and a low 2.5 SO/BB Ratio. He had similar numbers last year in his rookie campaign, so he's been consistently more to the hitter. His avg total run impact this year per game is around 1.5, with as high as 2.4 in a game twice this year, his career high was 3.4 in a game last year. All things point to an over here as Carrasco struggles against the sox who hit .306/.324./.597 against him in 72 at bats, meanwhile the sox bats have averaged 6.3 runs per game last 3. Flex has been terrible this year, 2-7, 5.13 ERA, 1.4 WHIP, going against a powerful clev offense that is 9th in Team Batting avg .261 and 7th in OPS .790 over the last 15 days.


***First Umpire UNDER is STL/Pitt UNDER 8.5 with Tripp Gibson, who's games are 59% under in 110 games or last 3 years, on an avg 8.2 runs, 64.3% Strikes. This year he's 6-5-3 Under on a low 7.9 runs per game. Both pitchers have been solid with Keller being good since May and both bring sub 4 ERA's (Keller-3.2/Gibson 3.7), and Cards bring one of the best Bullpens in MLB, while Pitt also has a top 15 bullpen. The under has cashed 3 straight for Pitt and 4 of their last 5, while the cards have seen 5 of their last 7 go under. With a pitcher friendly ump, and these 2 going, this should be a low scoring affair.

 

[piratealew]

***2nd Umpire Over is Mets/Nats Over 8.5 with Larry Vanover who is rated as an extreme hitters friendly umpire tied with Wegner and below Marquez at 4.32 due to his low strike call, last year was more indicative of his typical years as he called 61.5% strikes. on 1.9 SO/BB ratio and 11.6 runs, while this year he's at just under 9 runs per game. His average run impact per game through all 2524 in his career has been 1.5 per game, More data points connect to an over as Manea has over a 5 ERA in 2 starts against the Nats, and gave up 8 runs in 2.2 innings his last start, while on the offensive side, the Mets carry a .276 avg on the road, ranking 2nd in the league, and have hit for over .300 every game in Wash. Both teams also rank in the bottom half of team era. With a hitter generous K zone, this one should go over like last night

 

[fireballs]

thanks guys, it was a good day thanks to the top 2 plays cashed. 3-2 top plays, 4-5 on all. Better to win the bigger plays, and lose the smaller plays. Back from morning PT for the torn ACL now On to the Tuesday's Grind...

993-876YTD/ (508-442 Top plays) Umpire Overs=89-61 Umpire Under=5-2

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Royals-119
⭐️Baltimore-110
⭐️Mets-125
⭐️Cleveland-1-135
⭐️Houston+107
⭐️Braves-1-125 (Full game)
⭐️Dodgers/Dbacks Over 8.5-115
⭐️Padres+110
⭐️Angels-106
⭐️Yankees-1-130 (Full game)
⭐️San Dog/Texas Over 7.5-110
⭐️Phillies+114
Brewers-113
Pirates-112
Boston-1-130
Twins+105
Cleveland/Chicago Over 8-135
Mets/Nats Over 8.5-128
Dodgers-1-128
Braves-0.5-125 (F5)
Yankees-0.5-125 (F5/First 5 innings)
Boston/Miami Over 7.5-115
Milwaukee/Colorado Over 10.5-125
Baltimore/Seattle Over 7-125
LAA/Oakland Over 7.5-112
StL/Pittsburgh UNDER 8.5-120

Will be monitoring Umpire announcements today.

Hit 6-3 yesterday in EURO and copa, posted on reddit and another but forgot to paste it here so here it goes for today:

For those playing Euro:
Netherlands+100 (First Half ML)/-1+115 (Full game)/Over 5.5 Corners
Austria ML-105/BTTS-110/Over 2.5 goals+100

Copa:
Colombia Double chance (Win or Draw)-105/Over 2.5 goals+120
Costa Rica Double Chance-110/UNDER 2.5

Like your card today. The only one I can't bet is the Twins +105. Tried to find a line like that this morning about 11, but the best I could get is Twins -125. That's a heck of a line you got. Would you bet it at -125? Or is that a run line of -1 1/2 runs?

 

[piratealew]

Like your card today. The only one I can't bet is the Twins +105. Tried to find a line like that this morning about 11, but the best I could get is Twins -125. That's a heck of a line you got. Would you bet it at -125? Or is that a run line of -1 1/2 runs?

They opened +110 at most shops, I played all my picks earlier this morning, it was +105 at Superbook at Pinnacle and Ceasar's. It's been steamed up all day for whatever reason...yes, I would still bet at -125. Think a lot of bettors realized the line was flipped when it opened and bet it up.

 

[piratealew]

***3rd Umpire Over is SD/Tex Over 8.5 with Alfonso Marquez, who is rated at the very top of extreme hitter friendly umps at 4.37 above all other umps due to his generous hitter friendly K zone, as he's calling 63% strikes and a low 2.3 SO/BB ratio on 9.7 runs in last 153 games, and in that period he's gone 58.2% over (85-61-7). Both pitchers have struggled in June with Eovaldi carrying a 4.4 ERA in 28.2 innings (5 starts) and Cease with a 4.94 ERA but a high .248 Oppposing BA in 27 innings and also 5 games. Both teams bullpens are in a 3 way tie for 11th place with the Dodgers for most homers given up at 36. Rangers are avg 4.17 runs per game while the padres 6.17.

 

[phantom888]

Good luck!
For your starred totals, do you look at umpire tendencies? Or other?

 

[piratealew]

Good luck!
For your starred totals, do you look at umpire tendencies? Or other?

typically i try to but early in AM a lot of times data isnt out yet, so i'll wait til later when they are announced to decide if i go more on a total or stay where I'm at.

***4th Umpire over is Balt/Sea Over 7 with Edwin Moscoso who rates in the extremely hitter frirendly category at 2nd behind Marquez; this is easy to see why as this year he's 11-5 Over, almost 10 runs per game, 63% strikes, 2.5 SO/BB ratio, with last yr similar at over 10 runs per game in 33, on 63% strikes, he hit 23-10 Over. I had this game reaching 8 prior to the news but could easily see another run+ as Moscoso's avg Run impact in 2400+ games is over 1 per game.

I see Drekman as Ump in Wrigley, a big overs ump (and wind blowing out), the matchup just doesnt quite favor it tonight. limited data on phils pitcher but he seems to be a ground ball pitcher, same with Wesnewski. Philly's games have tended to go under lately 8 of their last 12 and 5 of their last 6 playing in chicago, cubs 13 of their last 20. Cubs offense has been suspect, and Phils offense is watered down at this point without Kyle and Harper. If those 2 were playing, I'd be all over it but given their form, and the H2H, i am prob going to lay off. It's an over or no play for me which prob will lay off.

 

[piratealew]

Dodgers-0.5-125 (F5)

 

[piratealew]

Up and down Tues, Royals couldnt come thru after the long rain delay. I've lost the last 4 of those.

1004-889 YTD/ (512-449 Top plays) Umpire Overs=91-63 Umpire Under=5-3

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Astros-105
⭐️Mets-120
⭐️Boston/Miami Over 7.5-120 (Umpire Over-Mahrley)
⭐️Brewers-142
⭐️Cardinals+114
⭐️Clev-1-125 (ECU star Williams makes first '24 start, he has dominant stuff, guys will win for him)
⭐️Tampa+100
⭐️Angels-105
⭐️Reds+0.5+110 (F5)
⭐️Texas-135
⭐️Angels/A's Over 7.5-130 (Umpire Over-Muchlinski)
⭐️Dbags/Dodgers Over 9-105 (Umpire Over-Baker)
Boston-135
Twins-1-112
Mutts/Nats Over 8-130
Dodgers-0.5-135 (F5)
Mariners-115
Cubs+117
Reds+165 (Full-game)
Brewers/Rockies Over 11-125 (Umpire Over-Ripperger)
Tigers/Twins Over 8.5-120
SD/Texas Over 8.5-115
Cards/Pirates Over 7.5-125
Giants/Braves UNDER 8.5-125 (Umpire Under-Additon)
Astros/Jays UNDER 9-130

***1st Umpire Over is Boston/Miami Over 7.5 with Nick Mahrley who is 10-5 over in '24 on 10.1 runs per game and 63% strikes and a low 2.5 SO/BB Ratio. His last 2 games produced 28 runs. Boston has dominated LH pitching this year, and going aginst Southpaw Rrogers who has a 4.87 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, while boston is 1st in MLB in BABIP .346 against lefties this year and 9th in wOBA .326. Bello has been bad during june posting an 8.25 ERA and 2.04 Whip; these hit the over early last night and should again tonight as there will be runs on both sides tonight.

***2nd Umpire Over is Angels/A's Over 7,5 with Mike Muchlinksi who's games have seen a whopping 11.2 runs per game in 15, on 64% strikes and 2.6 SO/BB Ratio. Over his last 106 gms or 3 years he's 55% over, on 9.7 runs. Last night these 2 hit the over early and that's possible again tonight givent he matchup and umpire as Angels have hit the over 3 striaght, and both teams have averaged 8 runs between themselves and opponent the last 3 games. Angels are starting a kid in his 2nd start and A's with a first yr pitcher so mistkes and runs should be plenty.


***3rd Umpire Over is Az/Dodgers Over 9 with Jordan Baker who is 7-6-1 to the over but averages 9.2 runs on a low 64% strikes and under 3 SO/BB Ratio. Over his last 75 games or 3 yrs he's 55.6% to the over on 9.5 runs per game and a 63% strikes and 2.4 SO/BB Ratio, which has earned him a spot in the hitter friendly category at 4.27 tied with Libka and above Thomas. I had this game at 10 (these 2 hit 11 last night) before the umpire news but could see another un added given his 1.2 run impact per game. The over is 4-0 in dodgers last 4, i see it going to 5.

***4th Umpire Over is Mil/Col Over 11 with Mark Ripperger who is 10-6-1 Over, on 9.8 runs per game, a low 2.3 SO/BB Ratio and 64% strikes. He's been consistent throughout, his last 5 years or 146 games, hes had a 9.7 runs per game avg, and at coors field he's 4-2 over and 14.3 runs. Hudson has struggled at Coors with a 8.58 ERA and 2.13 WHIP in 8 games, while Rea has a 4.5 ERA, 1.5 WHIP in 6 road starts. Brewers offense is top 10 in runs, hits, walks, RBI's, stolen bases, BA, and OBP. I could see a 8-5 type game.


***1st Umpire Under is Giants/Braves Under 8.5 with Ryan Additon who is 11-5 UNDER on 8.6 runs, and this is with 2 games that skewed the avg higher (22, and 24). The under was safe last night, and is 6-3-1 last 10 games H2H. Braves have seen a 7-2-1 under last 10 games allowing just 3.1 runs per game, and with this pitching matchup eluding to another pitcher's dual, the under should be in play.

 

[inzane]

Good luck today Pirate, and thanks for the post...

 

[piratealew]

⭐️Braves-1-128

 

[phantom888]

Congrats on reaching four digit wins!
Keep them coming!