Lightning Locks - Picks of the day Thread

[Lightning Locks]

Down 6 at half, this game finishes within a FG.

 

[Lightning Locks]

You know the old saying: buy low, sell high. We have a Colts team that has won 3 in a row ATS. They beat Houston, but the score and the game's result are not what you think (35 more yards in a 28-point blowout hmm). They covered against Baltimore after an epic collapse, and they beat the 1-win Dolphins (1 point from being winless). Carson Wentz is an injury waiting to happen (dude had 11 completions last week and 4 to a guy who is out). TY Hilton came back and is out again (led the team in receptions). My favorite kicker is out (who doesn't love a kicker who looks like a towel boy).

Going to SF now, Trey Lance is back out, Jimmy G is back in and that means they are a better team with Jimmy since he is their starter. SF lost their last game and have had 2 weeks to steam about it. (They played their best Defensive game and should have won but it happens with a backup). The SF rush D has been awesome giving up 100 yards a game the last 3 weeks and that matters since the Colts are a run first team. Most importantly the 49ers are back to a passing team since Jimmy G is a much better passer than Trey Lance is right now. Samuel, Aiyuk and Sanu are big targets and should punish a thin Indy secondary which is particularly short at safety with Rock Ya Sin out.

This goes all back to the buy low sell high. The Colts won 2 out of 3 (against the worst teams in the NFL), while the 49ers have lost 3 in a row. The 49ers season is on the line. Three straight losses, they are under 500, they have the 2 best teams in the NFC ahead of them (Arizona, LA Rams) who are the biggest favorites we have seen this year so they are 3 and 3.5 games back and you can say bye bye to making the playoffs. BUY low, sell high we are BUYING on the 49ers and selling on the one dimensional Colts. Also helps that Coach Shanahan after 3 losses has never not covered as a head coach. 49ers by 7-10. BUY low , get paid big in the NFL.

 

[Lightning Locks]

2-1, 1-1 winner

 

[Lightning Locks]

(NBA) Clippers -2.5 -115

Trailblazers @ Clippers @ 10:30 PM EST

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS for our Monday night winner. The Lakers won here last night and look for the other LA team to win at Staples tonight. This game sets up nicely for the Clippers based on recent results. Los Angeles has opened the season 0-2 and after championship aspirations heading into the season, the loss of Kawhi Leonard is hurting those big time.

The Clippers played a great game against Golden St., losing by 2 in their first game and then fell to Memphis by six points on Saturday (2 tight games means it's time to win one of these tight ones). Paul George led the way with 41 points and after not going to the free throw line at all in the first game, he went 6-6 from there against the Grizz so that's a good sign for the leader of this team. They committed just seven turnovers but Memphis had the edge overall in taking care of the ball with a 2.36 A/TO ratio so Los Angeles needs to force more turnovers. Portland lost its season opener against Sacramento but bounced back with a 29-point win over Phoenix on Saturday (who just blew out the Lakers so we won that game as a big play for us and a bad spot for them).

The Blazers hit the road for the first time this season and they find themselves in a tough spot against a desperate Clippers team. They look to avoid opening the season 0-3 for the first time since 2010, when they opened 0-4. Playoff aspirations get shut down fast if you have a 0 on that win column. Clippers have covered the last 4 at home versus Portland and 5-1 last 6 ats. Portland shot 54% last game which is the best shooting performance in the NBA so far this year. Don't expect that tonight. Clippers like the Lakers get their first win at home. Lay the bucket and get the dough.

 

[Lightning Locks]

2-0, 2-1 winner

 

[Lightning Locks]

(NHL) Winnipeg Jets OVER 5.5 -110

Ducks @ Jets @ 10:00 PM EST

Winnipeg Jets have no defense meaning Hellybuck is gonna have a hard time stopping the Ducks who have scored considerably more this season. And on the flip side the Jets offense is lethal so I’m predicting this ones gonna be a shootout. 4-2, 4-3 final type score.

 

[Lightning Locks]

3-1, 2-2, 2-1 type game.

 

[Lightning Locks]

3-1, 2-1 winner.

 

[Lightning Locks]

3-1, 2-1, 2-0 winner.

 

[Lightning Locks]

(NBA) Houston Rockets +10

Jazz @ Rockets @ 8:00 PM EST

This game fits into a system I use in the NBA that hits at a very high rate. We used it earlier in the week and won with OKC Thunder at home against the Warriors (never In doubt). Bad teams win, and bad teams cover, it’s the NBA no one is winning every game, there is no 72 win Michael Jordan team or super team. I have a fade play as well against the Jazz who just covered 3 games in a row. This is a 74% fade play so hard to pass that up. But it gets even better. This play has happened 27 times last year and this year and has hit at a 89% clip with fading certain teams who have covered three in a row and now go on the road as a big favorite.

There is more to it but the fact is a situation that has won 24 out of 27 times we take it any time we can get it. The Rockets haven't impressed anyone but the NBA is about situations and matchups and the Rockets have been awesome off a loss covering 7 out of their last 8 (currently off a loss and just covered off a loss). The Rockets are playing some defense and their last two losses are by 10. It won’t be easy but we don’t have to win, just need to cover. It’s early but the Rockets are the third best three point shooting team so far and when you can hit threes you can stay in games late. Jazz win but the 's put money in our pocket. Look for a 4-6 point game down the stretch.