Kentucky should be the favorite to win SEC tournament

[Tanko]

South Carolina smacked them in Columbia but I think if they played South Carolina again they'd have no problem beating that team. The Cats have made major strides since then and are peaking at the right time so I'm not as concerned about them facing a team that likes to slow it down and turn it into a rock fight because the Cats have shown they can win games like that.

The SC game is the only one that would meet a criteria for slow tempo/decent defense.
As you mentioned they lost that game.

Texas A&M is the only other game I can find that is remotely close to slow tempo (67) and good defense. They lost that game too in OT.

They are peaking though so its tough to say how similar teams would do against them now.
I will say, the it is more likely to be a slow tempo/good D team that beats them. Just my opinion.

 

[KVB]

We have Kentucky futures for a while now

Yeah, but that's for the big dance.

This thread is about the conference tourney.

I have Kentucky to win teh SEC too, but I will sell back if we get equity and the situation is right.

 

[Jrgum3]

The SC game is the only one that would meet a criteria for slow tempo/decent defense.
As you mentioned they lost that game.

Texas A&M is the only other game I can find that is remotely close to slow tempo (67) and good defense. They lost that game too in OT.

They are peaking though so its tough to say how similar teams would do against them now.
I will say, the it is more likely to be a slow tempo/good D team that beats them. Just my opinion.

That Texas A&M game was crazy they played well in that game and it took a monster performance from Wade Taylor and Tyrese Radford to beat them. That was early in the conference season though. Kentucky's defense is still suspect but I think its improved since then. To me if Kentucky loses in the Big Dance it's going to be against a team that has terrific guards who can really score the ball at will.

 

[seaborneq]

There is value at 4-1.

I don't see Bama beating Florida Friday. It'll be FLA/KENT in one of the semifinals. They will likely play Tennesee in the final and I can see them winning that game.

It won’t be Tennessee in the finals.

 

[KVB]

I have Kentucky to win teh SEC too, but I will sell back if we get equity and the situation is right.

Yes!

Kentucky needs to advance today.

The Tenn loss is good news for our chance of equity.

Would be a bad loss if they fail against A&M, but it's no sure shot.

Good Luck Kentucky backers.

 

[Tanko]

It won’t be Tennessee in the finals.

The original premise still holds. I think Florida has a good shot vs Bama today.

 

[harpo]

NOT !!! TENN !!!

 

[KVB]

The original premise still holds. I think Florida has a good shot vs Bama today.

Bama turning into a decent contrarian play in my office but that line is really tight.

Trying to get in, but I need a little more margin.

That's just the spread, though, not the moneyline.

 

[Tanko]

Bama turning into a decent contrarian play in my office but that line is really tight.

Trying to get in, but I need a little more margin.

That's just the spread, though, not the moneyline.

I'm going to play the spread.
I'm feeling good about the Gators and hope they win but I've got to look at the value.

 

[KVB]

I'm going to play the spread.
I'm feeling good about the Gators and hope they win but I've got to look at the value.

What spread and price are you holding, if I may ask.

I like -3.5 up to about -120.

Now I’m seeing value develop on the other side in the contrarian strategies as it trades today.

 

[Tanko]

What spread and price are you holding, if I may ask.

I like -3.5 up to about -120.

Now I’m seeing value develop on the other side in the contrarian strategies as it trades today.

+4.5 -103
Looking like it might get to +5?

 

[jjgold]

Pass on todays game

These tourney games crazy

 

[KVB]

+4.5 -103
Looking like it might get to +5?

I made a typo above.

It’s Bama that’s contrarian.

I liked Bama -3.5 up to -120 and when it blinked upward to -4.5 it’s actually contrarian action moving it, thatks both opinion and fact, diminishing the value.

So I didn’t mean to say contrarian value developed on the other side.

My hope was that the line ticked down to get more margin on the contrarian side…to buy Bama.

If it hits +5 I would be a little worried about a Florida bet because I think some smart money would be hitting that at -4.5. But sometimes they get ahead of themselves and don’t always win.

And I’m not sure that money is committed to a higher vig -4 1/2.

That said, it’s not a bad time to manipulate and try to buy some Florida to drop the price and turn around and put more against them on Alabama.

Owning some +4.5 to get some -3.5 or even -4 may be acceptable in some circles here.

 

[KVB]

+4.5 -103

Not a bad look, like I said, some spreadsheets trading this game will own both teams at different levels but have a position on Bama.

A cheap +4.5 would fit into that type of trading.

 

[harpo]

NOT !!! Not even a TOP 8

 

[seaborneq]

Kentucky is in trouble tonight

 

[KVB]

NOT !!! Not even a TOP 8

This thread is about the SEC tourney.

There is a lot of talent in those top teams for the big dance, though, so I see what you‘re saying. @jjgold likes Kentucky to compete for the ncaa tourney.

Final four could see a team like Kentucky.

Only thing we know for sure is that there will be madness.

 

[KVB]

Kentucky is in trouble tonight

Yeah, they need to get past this draw. Not easy but plenty of time.

We knew this one could be tough.

 

[BigJay]

Usually Coach Cal waits until NCAA Tourney time to choke

Not this year I guess

 

[seaborneq]

Usually Coach Cal waits until NCAA Tourney time to choke

Not this year I guess

That’s why I thought it was important for him to win the SEC tournament. He has really stunk it up in the NCAAs the last decade.