JR's 2023-2024 NBA plays

[Tanko]

There should be some kind of limit on the odds for a play or closer to the end of the contest everyone who is way behind will start firing hail mary's. If someone wins doing that, is that really someone who picks well or just lucky?

We kind of see this in the NHL Dog contest each month. But, in that contest, you can only pick dogs so I guess its built in to the process.

 

[Jrgum3]

3/27/24
Golden State/Orlando u218 -110 1.1u to win 1u
Denver Nuggets 1H -3.5 -113 1.13u to win 1u

Two plays for me on tonights huge 12 game card in the NBA. First up I like the Magic and Warriors to stay under the total of 218. This is a tough spot for the Warriors who are coming in off a much needed win last night against Miami. They are at a huge rest disadvantage here with it being a back to back and their third game in 4 nights while the Magic have been off since Saturday. I think tired legs could come into play for the Warriors against a Magic team that is pretty tough defensively especially at home so I'm on the under here.

My next play is on Denver to cover the first half spread against the Suns. The Nuggets are healthy and at home where they typically jump on teams early and I expect this to be no different as the Suns are potentially shorthanded with Beal and Nurkic possibly sitting this one due to injury but even if those guys play I still like the Nuggets here because lately they've been rolling in the first half covering 8 out of the last 10 first half spreads. You throw in the fact that the Suns beat the Nuggets in the last meeting without Devin Booker and I think the Nuggets are going to be plenty motivated in this one to just come out and really take it to the Suns early and often. I lean to them covering full game here but I'll go with the play I feel strongest about which is the first half.

 

[JDS]

There should be some kind of limit on the odds for a play or closer to the end of the contest everyone who is way behind will start firing hail mary's. If someone wins doing that, is that really someone who picks well or just lucky?

We kind of see this in the NHL Dog contest each month. But, in that contest, you can only pick dogs so I guess its built in to the process.

Wrong thread guy.

 

[Tanko]

Wrong thread guy.

I don't know how that happens...

Sorry Jrgum.

 

[JDS]

I don't know how that happens...

Sorry Jrgum.

Happens I do it too sometimes right after I smoke weed, but what's your excuse ?

 

[Jrgum3]

1-1 night tonight as the Warriors and Magic played a very ugly game which helped my under but the Nuggets lost the first half and ultimately the game against the Suns. Not sure if I'll have a play on tomorrows card since there's only two games and most of my action will probably be split between March Madness and MLB opening Day.

Thread record: 140-141-5 -15.68 Units

 

[Jrgum3]

I don't know how that happens...

Sorry Jrgum.

It's all good happens to the best of us.

 

[Jrgum3]

3/29/24
Orlando Magic ML +100 1u to win 1u
Phoenix Suns -1.5 -110 1.1u to win 1u

Back at it tonight in the NBA with 2 more plays. First up I took Orlando on the ML against the Clippers. The Magic have dropped a couple of games in a row to teams in the West that are desperate to not lose any more ground in the Western conference playoff race but tonight I like them to bounce back against a Clipper team that is struggling and is also playing their 4th game in 6 nights. Prior to their losses to the Kings and the Warriors the Magic had won 5 in a row and they have been dominant at home. I expect them to keep the Clippers in check with their stifling defense and take this one outright against the visiting Clippers.

Next up I'm backing the Suns on the road against the Thunder. The Thunder are a little banged up here with the most notable player being banged up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He likely isn't going to play and that's a huge loss for the Thunder. The Suns need this game more than the Thunder so I expect them to come in here and take care of business against a Thunder team that is starting to regress a little bit and aren't the healthiest team right now.

 

[Jrgum3]

Tough 0-2 night as the Magic lose a tough back and forth affair that wasn't decided until crunch time in the fourth quarter and the Suns get blown out by the Thunder in somewhat of a surprise given that the Thunder were without SGA yet they still won by 25 against a Suns team that needed to win that game.

Thread record: 140-143-5 -17.78 Units

 

[Jrgum3]

3/31/24
Cleveland Cavaliers +5 -110 1.1u to win 1u

Just one play for me today as we wind this season down and its on the Cavs getting 5 points against the Nuggets. The Nuggets main priority down the stretch is staying healthy so I can see them resting Jamal Murray here who is questionable heading into this game. Cleveland will have Donovan Mitchell and they should be able to take advantage of their matchup against Denver without Murray because Denver is thin at that spot. I think Cleveland is live to win here but I'll take the five points.

 

[Jrgum3]

0-1 day today as Denver easily blows out the Cavs at home. On to tomorrow although I think I might cut back on the number of plays I make until the playoffs start because it's tough to cap NBA down the stretch here for me.

Thread record: 140-144-5 -18.88 Units

 

[Jrgum3]

4/1/24
Phoenix Suns ML +100 1u to win 1u

One play today for me and it's on a pretty big matchup between the Suns and Pelicans. I backed the Suns the other day and they got blasted by 25 points but I'm going back to them here against the Pelicans because this game is huge for the Suns who are trying to climb out of the play in tournament and into the top 6. They are mostly healthy while the Pelicans are missing Brandon Ingram. Despite still having Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum available I don't think the Pelicans will be able to keep up with a motivated Suns team who badly needs this game to try and catch the Pelicans who they play again later in the week.

 

[BMR Genie]

Get it tonight, JR!

 

[theriver55]

looking forward to the Playoffs JR.

 

[JDS]

4/1/24
Phoenix Suns ML +100 1u to win 1u

One play today for me and it's on a pretty big matchup between the Suns and Pelicans. I backed the Suns the other day and they got blasted by 25 points but I'm going back to them here against the Pelicans because this game is huge for the Suns who are trying to climb out of the play in tournament and into the top 6. They are mostly healthy while the Pelicans are missing Brandon Ingram. Despite still having Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum available I don't think the Pelicans will be able to keep up with a motivated Suns team who badly needs this game to try and catch the Pelicans who they play again later in the week.

I agree with this situation and trust the numbers. I’m tailing but not blindly of course

 

[JDS]

I agree with this situation and trust the numbers. I’m tailing but not blindly of course

Thanks for bringing this game to my attention saved my night.

 

[theriver55]

Thanks for bringing this game to my attention saved my night.

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JDS with the heavy hit tonight on the NBA. good deal.

 

[JDS]

JDS with the heavy hit tonight on the NBA. good deal.

So glad I read his thread today very grateful

 

[theriver55]

So glad I read his thread today very grateful

yeah I read it too(before the Game) but not betting NBA till postseason.

 

[JDS]

yeah I read it too(before the Game) but not betting NBA till postseason.

His write ups are worth the price of admission.