JJGOLD Kalshi Is The Exchange We've Been Waiting For!!!!

[flyingillini]

Low to no commission when making a market.

Rewards to provide liquidity, on some markets, though I am not oversellling that point. Some markets should remain thin and choppy, lmao.

If you attack the markets with any type of EV calculation, these exchanges are a must.

I can't emphasize it enough.

But you need to be there early in sharp markets. Some orders I put in in obviously sharp markets obviously sit for a long time.

In some situations it works out that I am better off keeping those orders for even after game start, even though, at that point, I am laying a totally different LIVE algo over it. I think it boils down to a timing thing in both pregame and LIVE situations.

There is constant order adjustment on some games, I am clearly not the only trader out here.

However, you are the most knowledgable and respected trader out there. God Bless you, I highly respect you even though you grew up claiming the 14. I still respect you as a man and poster and coming from me that says a lot.

 

[bigbill365]

Kvb when you going to do a stream or vid on the Kalshi and finding some +ev plays and how to make some money?

 

[europro]

Kvb when you going to do a stream or vid on the Kalshi and finding some +ev plays and how to make some money?

kvb in the klink man.

 

[flyingillini]

kvb in the klink man.

Even though he was raised around busters and chaos you gotta respect his knowledge of markets and trading. You gotta give him his flowers.

 

[KVB]

Shit man, I'm just stressing a little because I'm trying to get some Total orders filled.

I need to get more into these positions.

Here's a play...I'm on the over in the big10 battle of the Michigans, and trying to buy accordingly all day.

Line is has moved and is moving.

Not saying it's a lock, but I've been a buyer since market open.

some situations it works out that I am better off keeping those orders for even after game start, even though, at that point, I am laying a totally different LIVE algo over it. I think it boils down to a timing thing in both pregame and LIVE situations.

So tonight I took a pregame OVER position and placed limit orders at acceptable low prices for the OVER in the Michigan/Mich St game.

Line opened around 145 and closed around 150.

I had orders in for OVER 136.5, 139.5, 142.5, and 145.5. No commission on these trades because I was a market maker. Some know that I know things, and I’m clearly looking for the game to start out slow scoring.

When the game started out slow, every bet triggered.

With all the scoring at the end of the first half, I held to the end.

Treeemendous flexibility on the exchanges and my skills as a trader, capper, and LIVE capper can really be flexed here.

Remember…

"It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it."

"It is only after you can appreciate what they bring that you can truly appreciate how they bring it."

—KVB

 

[KVB]

Just checking in with some past posting. Something I never really do, but decided I can here, in this thread. It's tough to post before picking up positions as my posts don't always print and they always print late. So timing the post before the trade is silly here.

Anyway, got my ass kicked in with Butler, a rare loss.

But got that shit back when I picked up ml's and spreads on Wisconsin when they were down 11 and started trimming the exposure when they were up 11.

 

[Tanko]

Just checking in with some past posting. Something I never really do, but decided I can here, in this thread. It's tough to post before picking up positions as my posts don't always print and they always print late. So timing the post before the trade is silly here.

Anyway, got my ass kicked in with Butler, a rare loss.

But got that shit back when I picked up ml's and spreads on Wisconsin when they were down 11 and started trimming the exposure when they were up 11.

Nice job KVB....

 

[KVB]

Nice job KVB....

I have contracts for Mia(OH) to finish the regular season undefeated, for cheap.

When they went down 23-11, I was trying to get more, but that market won't fukkin budge, lol. Nobody will sell their YES to me for the cheap price.

Nobody was fooled by the early score, and now MIA OH is down 33-32.

Still have the same amount.

You'll appreciate this play. Go check out the MIA OH schedule. I picked up the YES on them going udefeated for regular season at about .15, that's about a +567 moneyline or so.

A lot of games left, but remember, I'm not locked in, I can sell for profit if it goes up. I already have equity.

Now look at the schedule again, they've been weak, and are battling NIU now, but the toughest teams are out of the way and it seems like they could a few more games in and those contracts can rise.

I like my play here, better than trying to hit a silly moneyline each game to the end, lol.

 

[jjgold]

Kalshi hard on the eyes KVB

 

[flyingillini]

Kalshi hard on the eyes KVB

Coinbase is gonna take over, give it a year or two.

 

[KVB]

Kalshi hard on the eyes KVB

 

[flyingillini]

 

[KVB]

View attachment 84766

LMAO witht he replacement.

 

[KVB]

While recognizing the Monday risk, the position is smaller but I have put orders in to short NC on larger spreads, like 13.5 and 16.5

Again, there is higher risk here, and it is not a truly patient play, that's why the limits are where they are on the order book.

What I'm looking for is a strong Syracuse start, at the very least. They may not be a bad pregame bet at +12 or so but I'm not talking about that line here.

These orders are not meant to be taken to fruition, if up an amount that looks right, I'll get out. It takes discipline to get out in plays like this, if faced with the decision. I may keep some of the positions, but this particular set truly is meant as a scalp.

So you can see, I'm struggling a bit by choosing when to scalp, but that's because I've had high accuracy recently and I see money being left on the table. But getting green and getting out is the name of the game tonight.

I also anticipate a TOTAL trade, but we can only take what the market gives on that one so I'll be back to cover it.

For now, let's hope NC doesn't go out 20-2. 10-0, I can live with, but 20-2 or 4 would be a bad sign, lol.

 

[KVB]

Line has pulled back towards Syracuse since I posted.

I am triggered on the exchanges. Note, I am not including my sportsbook activity here. I am on the exchanges.

Again, this is a higher risk, aggressive play. It can go wrong and if it does it can look ugly.

lol, but I'm in for it on this Monday night, the week before the Super Bowl Sunday Hoops Extravaganza. That's the day we're really targeting.

 

[KVB]

Didn't get the bump across these spreads I was hoping for when it was 12-10 with about 11 and a half to go. This was gamed out.

So I am still holding, a slow bleed here is still down the line of probabilities.

So we hold.

 

[KVB]

I've also put in orders for OVER 148.5 and 151.5 for NC and Syracuse.

They triggered when the score was 27-20.

 

[KVB]

Accounts are swelling with the score 34-29 with 2:42 to got in 1st half.

Here we go.

 

[KVB]

Accounts are swelling with the score 34-29 with 2:42 to got in 1st half.

Here we go.

Easy come easy go. 46-32 NC with the lead. The bad thing is that they are now covering the pregame line.

Down just less than 50% on the +13.5s and about 30% on the 16.5s. May be holding here as the TOTALs have swelled and act as a hedge. It is the case that the higher the score, the more likely the favorite but we are still in a situation of holding. I am not adding to the position, this not Saturday.

The plan is to hold the Totals to fruition but if they do dip below a threshold, I will dump them. We will get out to cut the losses on these trades.

And while the "comeback metric" is high for the Total in this game, it is my belief that the early slow start, where I dipped into the market, is what has been overcome on the way to the Total. I could be wrong here. But the numbers bought on the exchange keep us in play nonetheless.

Once again, looking for a strong Syracuse start, this time with the time value of the contracts diminishing, a closer game should be more meaningful in the markets.

Let's hope we get to see that play out.

 

[KVB]

And while the "comeback metric" is high for the Total in this game, it is my belief that the early slow start, where I dipped into the market, is what has been overcome on the way to the Total. I could be wrong here. But the numbers bought on the exchange keep us in play nonetheless.

I want to clarify. At halftime there is a 161.5 LIVE line, so the game is showing the pregame OVER at the moment. The comeback could be a lack of scoring, making it, as I often say, a game of halves, bringing the UNDER.

But I'm not going to take profit on the Totals yet, as I think the slow start being overcome qualifies tonight. Is that getting green and getting out? No.

But I beleive we are in a hedge situation that is worth the shot being taken here.

I may have abandoned, for now, one goal, but this is an acceptable position to be in for sure.