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JJGOLD Kalshi Is The Exchange We've Been Waiting For!!!!

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
18,029
Not liking what I'm seeing here. These Kansas contracts are increasingly more suspect.

That said, I do think Kansas will surge and I may get a chance to profit. The problem is that it takes quite a surge, or a closer game late, for the market to begin to doubt a team like Zona.

So, again, day after Super Bowl Saturday, can feel rough and you can see NCST/L'ville just trying to rub it in.

But we will not be deterred. I don't lose many on the exchanges and few losses of an entire position, but sometimes we have to take losses to get back to those wins.

Likely a tough market for a bit until we get into the run up to the conference tourneys, the confernece tourneys, and then the Madness.

Like Super Bowl Saturday, can't wait for the NCAAB post season.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
18,029
I had orders in against the Arizona -2.5 and they triggered in some recent volatility here at .47 cents. SO that's Kansas +2.5 at pretty good price.
Had orders in all day and finally filled with Kansas ML at .40 cents.

:+anxious-
Not liking what I'm seeing here. These Kansas contracts are increasingly more suspect.

Late money on Zona, and do agree with it as the market is blinking seriously Still gaming out the Kansas surge but I really don't like how things are developing here. If it weren't a light Monday, I would be exiting the market and sitting on the sidelines.

But these amounts are worth it to stay engaged. Let's experience the natural pull back, if that's what this is.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
18,029
Picked up Indiana -8.5 at .59 cents.
Also picked up Indiana -5.5 for .73 cents.
These are not very liquid markets, by the way. May be holding these to fruition.

Oregon with a 6-0 lead, account is under pressure tonight, with NC ST going to zero and Kansas value evaporating, and I mean evaporating, before the game even starts.

:popcorn:
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
18,029
Shit, oregon might win this game.

An Indiana surge and I'll get out. Good thing even the beginning of a move will get mad respect in the market and I should be able to get something good for the contracts.

source.gif


Like I said earlier, if this were a higher volume day, as far as contracts, I'd likely already be on the sidelines and might not have even picked up some of these more aggressive positions.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
18,029
I had orders in against the Arizona -2.5 and they triggered in some recent volatility here at .47 cents. SO that's Kansas +2.5 at pretty good price.
Had orders in all day and finally filled with Kansas ML at .40 cents.
Not liking what I'm seeing here. These Kansas contracts are increasingly more suspect.

Can sell the spread for .31 and ml for .27 at market.

Thinking of trimming the exposure and selling some or all of these.

I won't for now, but I get this feeling this was the moment to do it.

"I don't really want to move on feeling; intuition yes, but just a feeling, no. How do we know the difference? Sometimes we simply don't."

---KVB
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
18,029
Did you have any info on Peterson being out? That would have been nice to know beforehand.

Of course. He has the flu, or something like it.

A top ten matchup like this moved from -2.5 to -5.5 suddenly. Of course I knew why.

Everyone in the world knew he was out beforehand.

It really isn't relevant to this thread as it doesn't change my trading plan at all.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
18,029
Did you have any info on Peterson being out? That would have been nice to know beforehand.

Be aware, I never really liked Kansas here to fruition. In fact not even sure I liked them at game start. I'm just looking for a surge and if the amounts were more, as I said, I would be out.

 
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