Insane presidential odds movement today

[BigJay]

Biden +3000


He's dropping out

No way they're hanging that line out there lol

Kamala is in, and I'm probably sitting this election out

Biden +2000 at BM now Stormy. Kamala +280

 

[BigJay]

Biden +3000


He's dropping out

No way they're hanging that line out there lol

Kamala is in, and I'm probably sitting this election out

Stormy I think you’re someone whose political views, like mine, lean opposite most on here.

Do you see a P/VP combo at this late date that the dems could realistically put together that would have a chance of beating Trump?

 

[BigJay]

 

[KVB]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1814061566771208595

Will step down but will not endorse Kamala?

He's already endorsed here, sort of. So that sounds odd.

 

[KVB]

This is at Boomaker...

JOE BIDEN - NEXT PRESIDENT ELECTED 2024
07/1818:00
Yes +2000
No -2800

 

[KVB]

Stormy I think you’re someone whose political views, like mine, lean opposite most on here.

Do you see a P/VP combo at this late date that the dems could realistically put together that would have a chance of beating Trump?

Both candidates severely unpopular over most of the electorate.

Anyone younger, with any modicum of support, could still have a chance.

But they are running out of time, it feels.

 

[stormtrooper8]

Biden +2000 at BM now Stormy. Kamala +280

Shifted down to +2500 from +3000 in last half hour at Bovada

Just a lot of movement

 

[Wagerallsports]

It’s hard to believe his wife & family would allow him to give in

They must be forcing him

One of those “Resign or you’re fired “ deals

 

[stormtrooper8]

Stormy I think you’re someone whose political views, like mine, lean opposite most on here.

Do you see a P/VP combo at this late date that the dems could realistically put together that would have a chance of beating Trump?

I firmly believe that if Biden stayed it, it's close to a coinflip, with Trump slightly favored.

Not sure if Kamala/Cooper has a better chance than Biden. But then again, Biden very much would have a chance. And I think Kamala/Cooper would have a chance as well -- just not that great


Michelle + anyone on her VP honestly would probably be favored over Trump

The Whitemore or Gavin route probably has a shot as well

We are most likely looking at a close election no matter what

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

I firmly believe that if Biden stayed it, it's close to a coinflip, with Trump slightly favored.

Not sure if Kamala/Cooper has a better chance than Biden. But then again, Biden very much would have a chance. And I think Kamala/Cooper would have a chance as well -- just not that great


Michelle + anyone on her VP honestly would probably be favored over Trump

The Whitemore or Gavin route probably has a shot as well

We are most likely looking at a close election no matter what

BO has Michelle Obama favored over Trump on their hypothetical matchups.

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

 

[KVB]

That's pretty dirty to put Michelle Obama on any of these lists.

She's not even anywhere near the outer perimeter of a circle of possibility.

Why doesn't BOL put Mickey Mouse? Mickey has a better chance and will, in reality, acutally get some write in votes.

 

[stormtrooper8]

Michelle isn't going to run, which is disappointing

Maybe Gavin is the next best option

 

[stormtrooper8]

I'm not a Gavin fan though

 

[castelion]

I firmly believe that if Biden stayed it, it's close to a coinflip, with Trump slightly favored...

I firmly believe the Democratic party, its supporters, and the media disagree.

 

[stormtrooper8]

I firmly believe the Democratic party, its supporters, and the media disagree.

It's an overreaction by the Democratic and the media

The data supports a very close election -- decided by MI, WI, and PA most likely

 

[castelion]

If Harris has less chance against Trump than Hillary Clinton would, well, ouch!

 

[castelion]

It's an overreaction by the Democratic and the media

The data supports a very close election -- decided by MI, WI, and PA most likely

The polls are very clear, but lots of people don't believe the polls, including 538 who collate the polls. Their opinion is that Biden would win, but it's just an opinion. Whoever wins PA wins the election. Looking at the 270towin dot com interactive map i don't see any other realistic outcome.

 

[stormtrooper8]

The polls are very clear, but lots of people don't believe the polls, including 538 who collate the polls. Their opinion is that Biden would win, but it's just an opinion. Whoever wins PA wins the election. Looking at the 270towin dot com interactive map i don't see any other realistic outcome.

I wouldn't call it merely an opinion

I would call it incorporating other statistical factors that lead to a prediction beyond polling, which in itself has a lot of noise

The polls are "accurate" in the sense they are counting who is voting for who in a certain sample. They're not made up. But the method has a lot of room for error in terms of predicting an entire election

 

[stormtrooper8]

Modern day polling is almost certainly going to favor the challenger in an incumbent scenario

2020 is a great example

Biden would probably win the national vote by 2-3 points, which may or may not be enough to correlate to an Electoral college win