How The Heck Oregon -9.5 Over Washington

[stormtrooper8]

Storm, I think the Huskies are under-rated this week. I'm playing +10 (-115).

The line-move from the first meet = 10 pts (on neutral)! Wash has won close games, Oreg has won blowouts. That's the reason for the line.

WASH talent is getting taken for granted:
*I've been impressed by the Wash Off Line and Receiving corps. RB is not bad.
*The QB talent is pretty close. Admittedly, have to give a small edge to Nix based on efficiency.
...Big question for me: Will the Wash Def hold up versus an offense this precise?
...In the first meeting, the game swung on the Lanning 4th down calls...and Oreg not converting.

big problem is that Husky defense is.....bad

And their offense/Penix has started to come down to earth

 

[stormtrooper8]

Washington since starting 4-0 against crappy teams

at Arizona, won by 7
Oregon, won by 3
Arizona State, won by 8
at Stanford, won by 9
at USC, won by 10
Utah, won by 7
at Oregon State, won by 2
Washington State, won by 3


Very unimpressive overall

Sure they beat some decent teams and one great one by 3 at home when they were pretty clearly outplayed. And they struggled pretty mightily against bad teams . Not like there was some backdoor cover shit in the ASU, Stanford, WSU games....those were all nail biters

Washington just isn't very good, that's the bottom line

 

[BMR Genie]

Good thread, JJ!

 

[stormtrooper8]

I think it's fair to say that if Washington loses, they are out of the playoff

Ohio State will get in over them despite having played 1 less game

 

[quantumleap]

Washington since starting 4-0 against crappy teams

at Arizona, won by 7
Oregon, won by 3
Arizona State, won by 8
at Stanford, won by 9
at USC, won by 10
Utah, won by 7
at Oregon State, won by 2
Washington State, won by 3


Very unimpressive overall

Sure they beat some decent teams and one great one by 3 at home when they were pretty clearly outplayed. And they struggled pretty mightily against bad teams . Not like there was some backdoor cover shit in the ASU, Stanford, WSU games....those were all nail biters

Washington just isn't very good, that's the bottom line

This shows me they know how to win close games. This is why I like the coach so well. He's not looking to blow out other teams. He's just looking to win and we'll see what he does to do just that against Oregon.

 

[Tanko]

This shows me they know how to win close games. This is why I like the coach so well. He's not looking to blow out other teams. He's just looking to win and we'll see what he does to do just that against Oregon.

You and chicks going to talk me into picking Washington with all this talk.

 

[quantumleap]

You and chicks going to talk me into picking Washington with all this talk.

I was going to say "wait until it gets to +10". It's there now.

 

[stormtrooper8]

This shows me they know how to win close games. This is why I like the coach so well. He's not looking to blow out other teams. He's just looking to win and we'll see what he does to do just that against Oregon.

Does it?

It's good that they can close out games, but why are they in dog fights with teams like Stanford, Arizona State, and Washington State?

The answer is they're just not that good. I don't mean that in general, but relative to the other 7 teams that still have a shot at making the Playoff

This isn't the NFL. Style points/being able to dominate games matters.

 

[stormtrooper8]

You and chicks going to talk me into picking Washington with all this talk.

Don't fall for the trap lol

 

[stormtrooper8]

Their games aren't close just because the coach is "looking to just win"

Lol come on now that's absurd

Any coach of a great team would rather build a comfortable lead and cruise to a victory in the second half

Washington hasn't been impressive for a while. Nothing against them...if they make it, I'll root for them

But there's a reason they're getting 10

They're in the same boat as Florida State. In with a win, out with a loss

 

[pipe]

Though Washington did beat Oregon by 3 already 36-33 earlier this year. The reason this line is so high is Because of Washington's last two games won by couple points and a few points fwiw.

 

[quantumleap]

Their games aren't close just because the coach is "looking to just win"

Lol come on now that's absurd

Any coach of a great team would rather build a comfortable lead and cruise to a victory in the second half

Washington hasn't been impressive for a while. Nothing against them...if they make it, I'll root for them

But there's a reason they're getting 10

They're in the same boat as Florida State. In with a win, out with a loss

You have a history of using 1 game to make your point. Saying there's a reason they are getting 10 points doesn't mean Oregon is that much better. Books are wrong all the time.

 

[quantumleap]

Does it?

It's good that they can close out games, but why are they in dog fights with teams like Stanford, Arizona State, and Washington State?

The answer is they're just not that good. I don't mean that in general, but relative to the other 7 teams that still have a shot at making the Playoff

This isn't the NFL. Style points/being able to dominate games matters.

Turnovers is why the Stanford and ASU games were close and Washington State was a rival game. Seriously, you can't judge a team on 3 games. That's just cherry picking. You didn't mention their blowouts.

 

[stormtrooper8]

Turnovers is why the Stanford and ASU games were close and Washington State was a rival game. Seriously, you can't judge a team on 3 games. That's just cherry picking. You didn't mention their blowouts.

What blowouts?

They haven’t blown out anyone since mid September

I listed their last 8 games which is literally two thirds of the season. Zero wins over 10 points

I’m not cherry-picking lol. They are probably the 7th best team in the country or so

 

[stormtrooper8]

You have a history of using 1 game to make your point. Saying there's a reason they are getting 10 points doesn't mean Oregon is that much better. Books are wrong all the time.

What does this mean? I have a history of using 1 game? That’s just blatantly wrong lol

Plus I listed 8 games. Are you a Washington fan or something?

Books are wrong sometimes, but it’s not hard to conclude that Oregon is better than Washington. An outcome of a single game doesn’t make a book “wrong”. That’s not how lines work. Like if Washington finds a way to win Friday, that doesn’t make the “line wrong.”

The line should be about Oregon -11, so this line actually looks pretty efficient.

 

[stormtrooper8]

Though Washington did beat Oregon by 3 already 36-33 earlier this year. The reason this line is so high is Because of Washington's last two games won by couple points and a few points fwiw.

Their highest margin of victory in their last 8 games is 10 points over USC — who turned out to completely suck

 

[jjgold]

You still have to take Washington
Too many points

 

[stormtrooper8]

You still have to take Washington
Too many points

No one has to take Washington lol

The line looks pretty good to me. If anything, slightly undervaluing Oregon

The result of the game doesn't make a line right or wrong

 

[quantumleap]

What blowouts?

They haven’t blown out anyone since mid September

I listed their last 8 games which is literally two thirds of the season. Zero wins over 10 points

I’m not cherry-picking lol. They are probably the 7th best team in the country or so

So blowouts in September don't count? Other than the 3 games you mention they played good teams since then. The timing is not relevant here because of that. I'm taking the whole season in considedation here. You're leaclving out relevant parts. That's cherry picking.

 

[stormtrooper8]

So blowouts in September don't count? Other than the 3 games you mention they played good teams since then. The timing is not relevant here because of that. I'm taking the whole season in considedation here. You're leaclving out relevant parts. That's cherry picking.

How am I cherry picking?

They haven’t just played good teams. I literally listed their last 8 games.

If you think beating USC by 10 and Oregon State by 2 is impressive then I don’t know what to tell you

Oregon’s stinker was beating USC by 9 on a couple late touchdowns by USC. That was a bad game for them and they’d be the first team to tell you that

Washington is a solid team but they aren’t +10 just because of perception lol