Genuine question: If the refs are rigging this for KC, then why would anyone bet Buffalo?

[Tanko]

To get back to original question of the thread....
Take these observations with a grain of salt. Its just some interesting data.


We might not see "preferential treatment" for the Chiefs Sunday. It could happen but the NFL has assigned Clete Blakeman as the head ref along with a mixed crew working with him.

The so what about Clete Blackman:

• Chiefs are 5-6 SU with Blakeman as the referee.
  He's the only ref in the NFL in which the Chiefs have < 0.500 record. When you consider how few of games they lose that's pretty amazing.
• With Blakeman 54% of penalities are against home teams.
• Home teams went 5-11 SU this year with him.
  
  
• Bills are 6-2 SU with Blakeman.
• Blakeman's crew is the 3rd highest in calling "roughing the passer" penalities (again its not 100% of his crew, its a mix but, Blakeman is the one watching the QB get hit in the backfield).
  
  
• Combined, these teams have had 172 roughing the passer penalities called against their opponents over the last 5 years. There's a significant difference in who's gotten those calls.
  101 were opponents hitting Josh Allen
  71 were opponents hitting Mahomes

This means nothing. But, its interesting to ponder.

 

[fishhead]

KC by 15

 

[str]

Without the internet and everyone having an opinion on a close call, would this even be a thing?
Seems to have grown into something more than a call at this point . Blakeman will be acutely aware of the situation going in for sure.

 

[Tanko]

Without the internet and everyone having an opinion on a close call, would this even be a thing?
Seems to have grown into something more than a call at this point . Blakeman will be acutely aware of the situation going in for sure.

I would agree. This has to be on the Ref's mind.
You have to believe the NFL front office has talked to this crew about the topic.

 

[Wagerallsports]

I keep asking myself, “how many times have the chiefs let you down in this spot.”

the answer is not many. However I dread seeing them in the SB again.

Nobody has really kicked their azz since Tom Brady & the Bucs did in the Super Bowl 3-4 years ago

 

[gauchojake]

Would be an amazing middle with Bills +1.5 and Chiefs ML

 

[stormtrooper8]

Nobody has really kicked their azz since Tom Brady & the Bucs did in the Super Bowl 3-4 years ago

Yep

Their only playoff loss since is that game against Burrow and the Bengals

 

[fishhead]

To get back to original question of the thread....
Take these observations with a grain of salt. Its just some interesting data.


We might not see "preferential treatment" for the Chiefs Sunday. It could happen but the NFL has assigned Clete Blakeman as the head ref along with a mixed crew working with him.

The so what about Clete Blackman:

• Chiefs are 5-6 SU with Blakeman as the referee.
  He's the only ref in the NFL in which the Chiefs have < 0.500 record. When you consider how few of games they lose that's pretty amazing.
• With Blakeman 54% of penalities are against home teams.
• Home teams went 5-11 SU this year with him.
  
  
• Bills are 6-2 SU with Blakeman.
• Blakeman's crew is the 3rd highest in calling "roughing the passer" penalities (again its not 100% of his crew, its a mix but, Blakeman is the one watching the QB get hit in the backfield).
  
  
• Combined, these teams have had 172 roughing the passer penalities called against their opponents over the last 5 years. There's a significant difference in who's gotten those calls.
  101 were opponents hitting Josh Allen
  71 were opponents hitting Mahomes

This means nothing. But, its interesting to ponder.

Clete from Omaha, may be a longtime Chiefs hater.

 

[jjgold]

Everyone’s on Buffalo

 

[phillyflyers]

Everyone’s on Buffalo

"Roughing the passer, defense #87. After the play, unsportsmanlike conduct, defense #96, will added after the play."

"1st and goal for Chiefs on the 1."

 

[KVB]

"Roughing the passer, defense #87. After the play, unsportsmanlike conduct, defense #96, will added after the play."

"1st and goal for Chiefs on the 1."

Yes, a very good point here.

This can be mathematically integrated into the prop line for shortest touchdown. I have done this for years.

We have to consider the PI in the endzone setting up the first and goal on the 1.

For shortest TD in the game, DK is dealing UNDER 1.5 yards for -175.

There's a good reason for that.

 

[phillyflyers]

Yes, a very good point here.

This can be mathematically integrated into the prop line for shortest touchdown. I have done this for years.

We have to consider the PI in the endzone setting up the first and goal on the 1.

For shortest TD in the game, DK is dealing UNDER 1.5 yards for -175.

There's a good reason for that.

DK knows the refs are getting involved.

 

[KVB]

DK knows the refs are getting involved.

It's also a function of how many times you think Mahomes will take endzone shots.

To get first and goal on the 1, the PI needs to be in the endzone, as you know.

And KC, along with Buffalo, will take endzone shots.

-175 is pretty steep favorite, the OVER is +135. That makes the vig free line at DK -149.55, call it -150.

Forget, for now, that DK is keeping a 5.8% hold and juicing that prop a ton to get to -175/+135, talk about a ripoff.

What they are really saying is that the -150 line is an implied probability of 59.93%.

So 60% of time we get that first and goal on the 1, whether from a PI or a redzone offense inching their way down.

 

[phillyflyers]

It's also a function of how many times you think Mahomes will take endzone shots.

To get first and goal on the 1, the PI needs to be in the endzone, as you know.

And KC, along with Buffalo, will take endzone shots.

-175 is pretty steep favorite, the OVER is +135. That makes the vig free line at DK -149.55, call it -150.

Forget, for now, that DK is keeping a 5.8% hold and juicing that prop a ton to get to -175/+135, talk about a ripoff.

What they are really saying is that the -150 line is an implied probability of 59.93%.

So 60% of time we get that first and goal on the 1, whether from a PI or a redzone offense inching their way down.

Great fukkin work, KVB.

What's your thoughts/opinion someone mentioned earlier might be a spot for a middle with the KC ML and BUF +1.5?

I like it if it moves a little more.

 

[KVB]

That's obviously a tough middle and with a little price on the KC moneyline it eats into the profit.

This game is so close to a pickem.

 

[stormtrooper8]

Great fukkin work, KVB.

What's your thoughts/opinion someone mentioned earlier might be a spot for a middle with the KC ML and BUF +1.5?

I like it if it moves a little more.

Absolutely not

Would be more inclined to do a Polish middle in this scenario

 

[gauchojake]

Bro no polish middles. You can just send me the money. Better off teasing across the zero

 

[stormtrooper8]

Great fukkin work, KVB.

What's your thoughts/opinion someone mentioned earlier might be a spot for a middle with the KC ML and BUF +1.5?

I like it if it moves a little more.

Glad you realized he’s not Franz lmao

 

[jjgold]

One of these times, mahommes is gonna throw an interception at a bad time

 

[stormtrooper8]

One of these times, mahommes is gonna throw an interception at a bad time

They haven't turned the ball over in 8 games -- since the last time they played the Bills

Bills have only turned it over 8 times all season. I do think one of the two QBs is going to find a way to f*** up here at least once.

Allen is probably more likely to make the mistake, but if I dare suggest it then some sensitive individuals might get their panties in a bunch