" IF " Belgium beat Ukraine ( I think they do ) , then the Romania & Slovakia game means only a winner advances. Since both games start at the same time , they both would be playing for their tournament lives.
You do make a good point about the line movement though. That's a big move for a draw
It doesn't matter if they get **2nd** or **3rd with 4 points**. The latter is just as good 99% of the time, because there will be groups where 3rd place has 2 or 3 points.
Neither team cares if the play Fav A or Fav B in the playoffs. They understand it's a tall order and they're probably one-and-done... But losing the final group match and having to go home NOW, that's what both coaches will want to avoid.
That's what the market thinks, anyway.
P.S. Yellow card line is 2.5 in this game. It's going to be a friendly, for betting purposes.