EURO 2024 - Group Stage Thread

[Tanko]

@Franz so Germany is in the next round. I realize they will want 1st place in the group so a tie gets them there.

Swiss will be playing full out to win but I doubt they keep up with Germany.
I see a draw as a definite possibility if Germany so wills it.
What's your read on this game?

 

[Franz555]

@Franz so Germany is in the next round. I realize they will want 1st place in the group so a tie gets them there.

Swiss will be playing full out to win but I doubt they keep up with Germany.
I see a draw as a definite possibility if Germany so wills it.
What's your read on this game?

I am going to wait on the official line ups. If Nagelsmann chooses something close to the same 11 again, I'm all over Germany. They only need a tie to win the Group ( Priority #1 ) and play a 3rd place team in the knockout game. I cant see why they would settle for a lesser side with so much still on the line

 

[dhristov211]

.... the Romania vs Slovakia will be for a chance to advance. Both " A " teams will be fighting to the death for a chance to play another day

Let's see. The draw was +135 for this game at the end of Belgium-Romania. It is +105 now. It will be odds on by the time the game kicks off. Usually the draw is +200 in an even match-up like this.

Fighting to the death? Maybe, but it's very likely to end in a draw, because it suits both lol

I am not so sure any phenomenal attacking football should be expected here lol

 

[dhristov211]

You were looking ahead to Wednesday's game between Ukraine and Belgium ?
Thats why I put Ukraine ? Your post was made just before Belgium played Romania. Sorry we disagree but I think Belgium will beat Ukraine

BOL with your wagers

I just made the one bet on Portugal to win it all @ 8.00 / + 700.

Yes, I was saying Ukraine must win both games for the long shot to come in. And yes I understand it's still only a 20% chance after the first win, but crazier things happen every day in sports.

P.S. I really like Portugal too

 

[Tanko]

I am going to wait on the official line ups. If Nagelsmann chooses something close to the same 11 again, I'm all over Germany. They only need a tie to win the Group ( Priority #1 ) and play a 3rd place team in the knockout game. I cant see why they would settle for a lesser side with so much still on the line

You're right. If they somehow lose this game by resting players, Nagelsmann would be crucified.

 

[Franz555]

Let's see. The draw was +135 for this game at the end of Belgium-Romania. It is +105 now. It will be odds on by the time the game kicks off. Usually the draw is +200 in an even match-up like this.

Fighting to the death? Maybe, but it's very likely to end in a draw, because it suits both lol

I am not so sure any phenomenal attacking football should be expected here lol

" IF " Belgium beat Ukraine ( I think they do ) , then the Romania & Slovakia game means only a winner advances. Since both games start at the same time , they both would be playing for their tournament lives.

You do make a good point about the line movement though. That's a big move for a draw

 

[Franz555]

Germany vs Switzerland : 3pm

Germany -1 @ 1.90 ( 2 units )

 

[chuckythegoat2]

" IF " Belgium beat Ukraine ( I think they do ) , then the Romania & Slovakia game means only a winner advances. Since both games start at the same time , they both would be playing for their tournament lives.

You do make a good point about the line movement though. That's a big move for a draw

Franz, appreciate the discussion. Sometimes the markets are right about their read on a game. With two even teams, the Draw is USUALLY around +220 (give or take).

When the Draw price gets shaded high or low, I question the validity. Have seen it in the past. People think they can sniff out the result based on team motivation.

Case in point: Scot/Hung from today. The Total was pretty high, and the Draw the priced to almost 4.00. These teams figured to go for it, good chance to get to 3+ goals.
...Not so fast, my friend. Didn't play out like that. Almost landed on 0-0.

 

[chuckythegoat2]

" IF " Belgium beat Ukraine ( I think they do ) , then the Romania & Slovakia game means only a winner advances. Since both games start at the same time , they both would be playing for their tournament lives.

You do make a good point about the line movement though. That's a big move for a draw

Been digesting this some more, Franz. Very thought-provoking.

Is there a scenario where SVK/ROM are tied into the 2nd half and see a certain scoreline from the other game? Would SVK be in a position where they would HAVE TO press? ROM has the better Goal Differential.

 

[chuckythegoat2]

One Q re: Scot/Hung:
*How is the Hung tackle on Armstrong not a Penalty?

They have all this VAR. Ref waves on what was akin to a Quarterback Sack. Cmon.

 

[Franz555]

One Q re: Scot/Hung:
*How is the Hung tackle on Armstrong not a Penalty?

They have all this VAR. Ref waves on what was akin to a Quarterback Sack. Cmon.

I agree. VAR needs to be reviewed and simplified. Too many vague terms like " foul in the build up " . How far back are we rolling the tapes ?

 

[Franz555]

Overall : 8 - 19 ( - 8.04 units )

 

[BMR Genie]

@Franz so Germany is in the next round. I realize they will want 1st place in the group so a tie gets them there.

Swiss will be playing full out to win but I doubt they keep up with Germany.
I see a draw as a definite possibility if Germany so wills it.
What's your read on this game?

I am going to wait on the official line ups. If Nagelsmann chooses something close to the same 11 again, I'm all over Germany. They only need a tie to win the Group ( Priority #1 ) and play a 3rd place team in the knockout game. I cant see why they would settle for a lesser side with so much still on the line

The game ending was wonderful in this match!

 

[Franz555]

Group B today @ 3pm est. 2 games to decide the fate of 3 teams ( Spain has 1st essentially locked up )

Italy vs Croatia : Should be a very interesting game as Italy only needs the draw to advance ( Yes I'm assuming Albania wont spank Spain by 4 goals ). The Italians are magicians at clock management so its Croatia or nothing for me

Spain vs Albania : Spain have 6 points and a +4 goals differential. Albania have 1 point and a -1 goal diff. I am fully expecting coach de la Fuente to rest several key players for todays game. That said , he has a bench that is capable of stepping in without missing a beat. Players like Midfielder Olmo ( who would be a starter if I had a say ), Torres , Perez , Joselu , Oyarzabal , Merino.....

I lean to the Over 2.5 @ 1.91 as I expect Spain to have a lot of hungry players eager to impress. Albania wont be able to sit in its defensive shell as only a win will do

 

[Tanko]

Group B today @ 3pm est. 2 games to decide the fate of 3 teams ( Spain has 1st essentially locked up )

Italy vs Croatia : Should be a very interesting game as Italy only needs the draw to advance ( Yes I'm assuming Albania wont spank Spain by 4 goals ). The Italians are magicians at clock management so its Croatia or nothing for me

Spain vs Albania : Spain have 6 points and a +4 goals differential. Albania have 1 point and a -1 goal diff. I am fully expecting coach de la Fuente to rest several key players for todays game. That said , he has a bench that is capable of stepping in without missing a beat. Players like Midfielder Olmo ( who would be a starter if I had a say ), Torres , Perez , Joselu , Oyarzabal , Merino.....

I lean to the Over 2.5 @ 1.91 as I expect Spain to have a lot of hungry players eager to impress. Albania wont be able to sit in its defensive shell as only a win will do

I'm looking forward to the Italy/Croatia game.
Croatia will be all out since they must win. It will be a great game to watch IMO.

 

[BMR Genie]

I hope these 2 matches today have different kickoff times.

 

[BMR Genie]

Group B today @ 3pm est. 2 games to decide the fate of 3 teams ( Spain has 1st essentially locked up )

Italy vs Croatia : Should be a very interesting game as Italy only needs the draw to advance ( Yes I'm assuming Albania wont spank Spain by 4 goals ). The Italians are magicians at clock management so its Croatia or nothing for me

Spain vs Albania : Spain have 6 points and a +4 goals differential. Albania have 1 point and a -1 goal diff. I am fully expecting coach de la Fuente to rest several key players for todays game. That said , he has a bench that is capable of stepping in without missing a beat. Players like Midfielder Olmo ( who would be a starter if I had a say ), Torres , Perez , Joselu , Oyarzabal , Merino.....

I lean to the Over 2.5 @ 1.91 as I expect Spain to have a lot of hungry players eager to impress. Albania wont be able to sit in its defensive shell as only a win will do

I'm looking forward to the Italy/Croatia game.
Croatia will be all out since they must win. It will be a great game to watch IMO.

Good luck today, guys!

 

[Tanko]

The Netherlands fans are awesome. Makes you want to be there for these games.
This is great.... I can't imagine the partying going on.

 

[BMR Genie]

The Netherlands fans are awesome. Makes you want to be there for these games.
This is great.... I can't imagine the partying going on.

Pure happiness, no violence. I love it!

 

[Franz555]

I hope these 2 matches today have different kickoff times.

I recall a group stage game back in 1982 where Germany and Austria only required a draw for both teams to advance ( knowing the score from the other Group game players a few hours earlier ). It was terrible to watch 22 men just go through the motions and help each other out. After that debacle they figured out that it would be best to have all final group games played at the same time to avoid such a farce. With fans holding cell phones to keep track of the other game , it still effects how the game is played but not to the extent it used to be.