i am not being a judge guy when i say this but i think it is very hard for him to lose. the only way i said it could happen is if the yankees miss the playoffs and that will probably not happen at this point. judge just dominates everything and he still has 48 home runs without hitting another all season. raleigh has 56 and might break the record but it is not a home run contest.
don't forget, sosa won mvp over mcgwire in 1998 though mcgwire hit 70 and had the record. sosa made the playoffs and had a higher avg and more rbis which were the key metrics then. now obp, slugging and ops are the trend and judge is higher.