sunshine11
sunshine11
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jan 3, 2022
- Messages
- 5,371
I’ll fade for a big gulp and a fish sandwich at Arbys.
This line should be -5 or more from my calculations.
Sportsline model agrees with this play.
View attachment 50891
Good luck Sunny. I'll do all the work just sit back and bet the opposite.I’ll fade for a big gulp and a fish sandwich at Arbys.
Are you going to pull the trigger on this ? I rarely ever see you lay any points in any market.BMR shows Bradley winning by 2 points.
I have Bradley winning by 3.3 points, so somewhere around 3 or 3.5 as a line.
Are you going to pull the trigger on this ? I rarely ever see you lay any points in any market.
Did you play them I didn't notice yet in your thread ?GL on this on JDS. Hope you hit it.
I've got Bradley winning by 4.2 (i.e. 4.0) on my estimates.
How are you doing following those metrics ? KVB mentioned that some of the numbers are not very accurate I don’t really know myself.View attachment 50894
Haslametrics has it pegged as a close one. Last basket wins
Did you play them I didn't notice yet in your thread ?
And there it is. Dropped to -1.5 -103 on Bookmaker.No. I usually only jump in when I see more than 2 points overlay to my calc'd spread.
Can you determine what type of steam is making that number drop ?
We're getting into that territory where the pressure on the Drake spread is mitigated by the moneyline pressure on Bradley.
Favorite bettors like the moneyline, dog bettors like the spread. And right now, the dog bettors are winning out.
Thanks for your inputWe could see it bounce off of 1.5 back to 2 and going between these can cloud the situation.
But here's an excellent tip.
If a house like pinny starts charging a higher price for a number they might just be trying to discourage that number meaning trying to stop the sharp action from coming.
Pinny now off of 1.5 but dealing +2 at -118, a high price.
Sharp money has been dropping this line. They've been trying to stop the dog action on the spread, hence a drop to 1.5, though briefly.
Sharp action, may be also suppporitng the 1.5, taking the favorite or at least holding the sharps there.
Public may be following the Drake action here, hence why I said we could be seeing a contrarian Bradley play develop.
But if we are saying this is 2 point line, then that price at Pinny and BOL sure does imply sharps are dropping the line.
After all, how much public money is really on a Drake and Bradley matchup here?
For this game, we are swimming with sharks.