Bradley -2.5 +101

[sunshine11]

I’ll fade for a big gulp and a fish sandwich at Arbys.

 

[KVB]

This line should be -5 or more from my calculations.

Sportsline model agrees with this play.
View attachment 50891

BMR shows Bradley winning by 2 points.

I have Bradley winning by 3.3 points, so somewhere around 3 or 3.5 as a line.

 

[JDS]

I’ll fade for a big gulp and a fish sandwich at Arbys.

Good luck Sunny. I'll do all the work just sit back and bet the opposite.

 

[JDS]

BMR shows Bradley winning by 2 points.

I have Bradley winning by 3.3 points, so somewhere around 3 or 3.5 as a line.

Are you going to pull the trigger on this ? I rarely ever see you lay any points in any market.

 

[KVB]

Are you going to pull the trigger on this ? I rarely ever see you lay any points in any market.

Some books had this at 3.5 and others at 3 at the open. Right at my number.

Could be a moneyline play in play here and if anything Bradley is starting to ping on the contrarian side.

No play yet but I'm watching.

 

[KVB]

We're getting into that territory where the pressure on the Drake spread is mitigated by the moneyline pressure on Bradley.

Favorite bettors like the moneyline, dog bettors like the spread. And right now, the dog bettors are winning out.

 

[Tanko]

GL on this on JDS. Hope you hit it.
I've got Bradley winning by 4.2 (i.e. 4.0) on my estimates.

 

[JDS]

GL on this on JDS. Hope you hit it.
I've got Bradley winning by 4.2 (i.e. 4.0) on my estimates.

Did you play them I didn't notice yet in your thread ?

 

[aikman.tr]

Haslametrics has it pegged as a close one. Last basket wins

 

[JDS]

View attachment 50894
Haslametrics has it pegged as a close one. Last basket wins

How are you doing following those metrics ? KVB mentioned that some of the numbers are not very accurate I don’t really know myself.

 

[KVB]

This line might drop to 1.5 across the board here.

Pressure is coming.

 

[JDS]

This line might drop to 1.5 across the board here.

Pressure is coming.

Can you determine what type of steam is making that number drop ?

 

[Tanko]

Did you play them I didn't notice yet in your thread ?

No. I usually only jump in when I see more than 2 points overlay to my calc'd spread.

 

[Tanko]

Did you play them I didn't notice yet in your thread ?

No. I usually only jump in when I see more than 2 points overlay to my calc'd spread.

And there it is. Dropped to -1.5 -103 on Bookmaker.
I'm in.

 

[KVB]

Can you determine what type of steam is making that number drop ?

We could see it bounce off of 1.5 back to 2 and going between these can cloud the situation.

But here's an excellent tip.

If a house like pinny starts charging a higher price for a number they might just be trying to discourage that number meaning trying to stop the sharp action from coming.

Pinny now off of 1.5 but dealing +2 at -118, a high price.

Sharp money has been dropping this line. They've been trying to stop the dog action on the spread, hence a drop to 1.5, though briefly.

Sharp action, may be also suppporitng the 1.5, taking the favorite or at least holding the sharps there.

Public may be following the Drake action here, hence why I said we could be seeing a contrarian Bradley play develop.

But if we are saying this is 2 point line, then that price at Pinny and BOL sure does imply sharps are dropping the line.

After all, how much public money is really on a Drake and Bradley matchup here?

For this game, we are swimming with sharks.

 

[KVB]

We're getting into that territory where the pressure on the Drake spread is mitigated by the moneyline pressure on Bradley.

Favorite bettors like the moneyline, dog bettors like the spread. And right now, the dog bettors are winning out.

I think sharps have also moved that moneyline, and really dropped it. +103, +105, the markets is trying to slow that dog ml pressure too.

Bradley -1.5 (-103) at BM very tempting and the Bradley moneyline down to -120 also a tempting option.

But note we are going against a grain here and also likely swimming with sharks.

 

[JDS]

We could see it bounce off of 1.5 back to 2 and going between these can cloud the situation.

But here's an excellent tip.

If a house like pinny starts charging a higher price for a number they might just be trying to discourage that number meaning trying to stop the sharp action from coming.

Pinny now off of 1.5 but dealing +2 at -118, a high price.

Sharp money has been dropping this line. They've been trying to stop the dog action on the spread, hence a drop to 1.5, though briefly.

Sharp action, may be also suppporitng the 1.5, taking the favorite or at least holding the sharps there.

Public may be following the Drake action here, hence why I said we could be seeing a contrarian Bradley play develop.

But if we are saying this is 2 point line, then that price at Pinny and BOL sure does imply sharps are dropping the line.

After all, how much public money is really on a Drake and Bradley matchup here?

For this game, we are swimming with sharks.

Thanks for your input

 

[JDS]

Decent texture for Bradley early on.

 

[JDS]

The slow pace favors Drake if this continues in
the second half.

 

[BigJay]

Good luck man. Just got home.

Took the godson to see new Lion King after school

I’ll see if I can get this one home for you