Analytics Capper's Picks of the Day Thread

[Analytics Capper]

I was eyeing this game too

Let's hope it cashes!

 

[Analytics Capper]

The Cardinals offense has been unbelievable and we know the Reds give up a lot of runs. I'm hoping St. Louis can cover this number by themselves tonight. If we can get a few runs from Cincinnati, it would be a bonus and I'd feel even more confident. The over has hit in 5 games in a row in this head to head match up, so let's hope the streak continues.

Pick: Cardinals v. Reds over 10 (-105)

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[Tanko]

Late to the thread. Missed the play.
GL AC.

 

[Analytics Capper]

I love fading Quintana. His best days are behind him, and because the general public is low on Miami this is a great buy low spot even coming off a win. Meyer got absolutely lit up in his first start last week against the Phillies, losing that game 10-0 and only lasting 5 innings. But from a pure talent standpoint, Miami is vastly superior compared to Pittsburgh and I'm going to back them at that short number every time. The Pirates are one of the worst teams, if not the worst team against right handed pitching, meanwhile the Marlins actually have a winning record against lefties.

Pick: Marlins ML (-115) v. Pirates

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[Florida Fever]

Miami does look like a good play today.

 

[Analytics Capper]

Martin Perez is on the mound for the Rangers today and they've lost the last 6 of 7 games. This is when the ace needs to come in and right the ship. In order to avoid a sweep to the lowly Athletics, Texas will have to manufacture some runs today as they've only gotten 5 runs in the first 2 games. I think against Blackburn the Rangers can attack early in the count. With the winds gusting straight out, the better hitting team should be able to take advantage.

Pick: Rangers ML (-135) v. Athletics

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[Analytics Capper]

I backed Texas yesterday. Even though we won, I’m going to have to fade them today. Their bullpen is in disarray and the Mariners are coming off getting swept by the Astros. Seattle should be focused and motivated as they are still in the thick of the wild card race but that was a reality check over the weekend. Flexen at home is still good and I’m going to trust it tonight and back the home team.

Pick: Mariners ML -145 v. Rangers

 

[Wagerallsports]

Yep I think they get back on track tonight

 

[Analytics Capper]

Miami is coming off a blow out loss to the Reds last night. It's been several games since the Reds have hung 11 runs on anyone. I'm going to fade the overreaction here. Pablo Lopez is a much better starter than Hunter Greene in almost every facet and I know this number will inch towards -125 by first pitch. Looking for a solid bounceback from the Marlins tonight!

Pick: Marlins ML (-110) v. Reds

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[JDS]

Miami is coming off a blow out loss to the Reds last night. It's been several games since the Reds have hung 11 runs on anyone. I'm going to fade the overreaction here. Pablo Lopez is a much better starter than Hunter Greene in almost every facet and I know this number will inch towards -125 by first pitch. Looking for a solid bounceback from the Marlins tonight!

Pick: Marlins ML (-110) v. Reds

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I’m with you sport ! Beat you on the price slightly.

 

[Analytics Capper]

Keeping this one simple. Max Scherzer is on the mound for the Mets. He is personally coming off a loss the last time out when he faced the Padres. His stuff is elite enough to shut down the Yankees. It will be the Mets to give him run support and I believe they will.

Pick: Mets F5 -0.5 (-120) v. Yankees

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[Analytics Capper]

Two different trends at work here. Yankees' totals have gone over 14 of their last 18 games while Royals' games have gone under in 5 straight games. It's always risky to bet the under for games in Yankee Stadium but I'm trusting the read here. Singer has done a great job this season and the games he's pitched in has gone under in over 80% of his starts.

Pick: Royals v. Yankees under 8.5 (-110)

 

[Analytics Capper]

Keeping it simple here. A major pitching advantage for Milwaukee today. Boston has been a train wreck since returning from All Star Break and their bull pen is gassed. This should be a high scoring game and the Brewers should be able to get it done.

Pick: Brewers ML -155

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[Analytics Capper]

Minnesota is coming off 3 straight losses. It includes a 1-10 blowout their last time. I think it's a great buy low spot for a solid team. Sonny Gray has solid stuff and he'll have to get quick outs to get the upset over San Diego tonight.

Pick: Twins ML (+120) v. Padres

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[Analytics Capper]

Great at spot for Cincy to win two in a row today. The top of their line up is doing much better as of late. The pitching matchup is a coin flip but Lodolo has some very nasty stuff and can be lights out at times.

Pick: Reds ML -125 v. Orioles
Units: 1

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[Analytics Capper]

Max is on the mound for the Mets tonight. He’s one of my favorite pitchers to back. He had a dominant outing last start and I think he will do it again tonight against a Washington team looking to be big sellers at the deadline. On top of that, you have one of the worst starting pitchers in the league going tonight in Patrick Corbin. I expect a blowout victory.

Pick: Mets -1.5 -140 v. Nationals

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[Tanko]

Just made the same play 20 minutes ago.
Mets scoring 6.5 rpg over last few games. Wash is at 3 rpg. Pretty big delta.

Good luck AC

 

[Wagerallsports]

Easy winner

 

[Analytics Capper]

It worked yesterday. It'll work again today. Jacob DeGrom is back on the mound for the Mets tonight, but this is more of a fade on the Nationals. I believe their team will be gutted via trade today so I'm trying to get this number before it balloons up even more. We know DeGrom will bring it, but I think the Mets offense will continue raking.

Pick: Mets -1.5 -160 v. Nationals

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[Analytics Capper]

The Mets offense didn't get it done for us yesterday, so it's tough backing an offense that is really struggling as of late with the Rangers. But the major thing is Martin Perez is on the mound and he should be able to keep the Baltimore bats at bay. The Rangers should take care of business today after losing the first two games in the series.

Pick: Rangers ML -160 v. Orioles

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