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40k ALL IN (Tiafoe risking 34k & 6k parlay to win 74k)

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quantumleap

quantumleap

Joined
Apr 10, 2022
Messages
4,053
For those of you who haven't followed every post in this thread, I bet 1 unit to win almost 97 units shortly after Doug posted his bet. If Keys wins I'm going to hedge my bet.

Sinner is currently at -273. I'm going to bet 55 units to win 20 units on Sinner. If he wins I am guaranteed at least 20 units. If Zev wins, I win 97-50 = 47 units.
 

bllartp

bllartp

Joined
Jan 24, 2025
Messages
1
A $1 parlay of Zverev and Keys moneyline pays 13 bucks right now. So true odds of this hitting is probably closer to 15-1.

If I were the bookie I would offer OP Zilch...Nata...Nothing for an early cash out.

OP would've had better odds of hitting a homerun buying 100K worth of weekly options on APPLE than this hitting.
 

BigJay

BigJay

Joined
Oct 28, 2021
Messages
15,142
Besides the obv payout Illini, I'd want to win this just to shove it down FD's throat for not offering a cashout. Rn it should be at least 75k on the conservative side & around 300k if Keys wins. They're obv banking on this having no shot to not even limit their exposure by not trying to buy me out.
Yes, “The Team” is banking on a Saba win.

You’d think you’d almost guaranteed get a cash out offer if Keys wins
 

BigJay

BigJay

Joined
Oct 28, 2021
Messages
15,142
A $1 parlay of Zverev and Keys moneyline pays 13 bucks right now. So true odds of this hitting is probably closer to 15-1.

If I were the bookie I would offer OP Zilch...Nata...Nothing for an early cash out.

OP would've had better odds of hitting a homerun buying 100K worth of weekly options on APPLE than this hitting.
Great of you to join 18 minutes ago to just make this your one and only post
 

dougtushyterror

dougtushyterror

Joined
Feb 3, 2024
Messages
1,094
No doubt. I think that’s what Dougy was counting on when he bet Rune earlier live is Sinner having to retire

Doug has cashed these retirement bets with regularly
Trying to decide if this max. bet partial hedge makes sense Jay. Would need Keys to win to guarantee coming out of this with at least 107k but I don't want to flush 26k down the shitter if she loses.

Screenshot_20250125_003055_FanDuel Sportsbook.jpg
 

BigJay

BigJay

Joined
Oct 28, 2021
Messages
15,142
Trying to decide if this max. bet partial hedge makes sense Jay. Would need Keys to win to guarantee coming out of this with at least 107k but I don't want to flush 26k down the shitter if she loses.

View attachment 52166
Yeah Dougy’s gonna do what Dougy’s gonna do but if it were me I’d think I had a shit ton invested in Keys already and keep the $26k to fight for another day if she happens to lose
 

dougtushyterror

dougtushyterror

Joined
Feb 3, 2024
Messages
1,094
Yeah Dougy’s gonna do what Dougy’s gonna do but if it were me I’d think I had a shit ton invested in Keys already and keep the $26k to fight for another day if she happens to lose

This is a crazy "hedge" that I just did cuz I'm flushing another 26k down the toilet if Keys loses. This would get me to ~149k if Keys wins with my current balance. Basically IF Keys wins, I'm guaranteed either a 154k or a 1.2M roll after the Men's Final.

Screenshot_20250125_013220_Gallery.jpg
 
Last edited:

BigJay

BigJay

Joined
Oct 28, 2021
Messages
15,142
Good luck, at the very least you provide a lot of entertainment for all of us interested in your gambling journey. 🫡
Absolutely.

Good luck Dougy

Think I’m tapping out

Will hope like he’ll to see this go your way when I check in in tomorrow
 
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