I think you're bang on. A. Bilbao haven't really turned the many chances into goals. They scored at Barcelona and should have netted a few against Getafe in that 1 - 1 draw. Valencia were manhandled at Celta Vigo. It was 2 - 1 @ halftime with a missed PK by Aspas. A.Bilbao have Nico Williams sit out training on Monday , which probably explains the juicy # on Over 2. If he were to be included in the starting line up , that Over 2 will be long gone. Think A. Bilbao score 2 against that porous defence you mentioned.