2022 NFL bets

[Wagerallsports]

Washington/Chicago over 38 -105 1 unit

The flukiness that results from short practice weeks ahead of Thursday night games makes excessively high or low totals worth looking into imo. 38 is the lowest total this week, and it won't take many special teams breakdowns or missed communications on offense to put extra points on the board.

Both of these offenses are bad, but both defenses are below average also. The exception is that Washington has been good against the run so far, but I think the market might be overestimating this effect on the total. Chicago opened up their offense with some degree of success last week, and I suspect they'll do the same this week against Washington's poor secondary. I think the Commanders' offense is better than their output so far as they have gone up against tough defenses and had rotten fumble luck against one of their easiest defensive opponents in Tennessee.

This was at 37 1/2 earlier in the week and has since steamed up, but a couple books out there are at -105.

Leaning this way too

 

[2the9s]

Colts/Jaguars under 42 1 unit

After some good offensive showings early in the season Jacksonville's offense and quarterback Trevor Lawrence have looked pretty awful the last two weeks. Jax's defense, however, looks to be for real, ranking #6 by football outsiders' DVOA metric, and I expect them to perform well against an Indy offensive line that has been totally inept so far.

Indy's offense is ranked dead last by FO's metrics in both running and passing (imo due to their line), but defensively they've been solid, especially against the run. With Lawrence struggling and Jacksonville running a rpo heavy offense this seems like a bad match up for an offense that needs to establish the run to be effective.

Jacksonville won the first matchup between these teams 24-0, with most of their points coming off advantageous field position after turnovers. Without that sort of turnover margin I don't see Jax scoring this much again, but I also don't see an answer for Indy's offense. This opened at 43 and is now steaming down to 41 1/2 at a number of books.

 

[doofy]

The under sounds like a good play in this one.

 

[Tanko]

Colts/Jaguars under 42 1 unit

After some good offensive showings early in the season Jacksonville's offense and quarterback Trevor Lawrence have looked pretty awful the last two weeks. Jax's defense, however, looks to be for real, ranking #6 by football outsiders' DVOA metric, and I expect them to perform well against an Indy offensive line that has been totally inept so far.

Indy's offense is ranked dead last by FO's metrics in both running and passing (imo due to their line), but defensively they've been solid, especially against the run. With Lawrence struggling and Jacksonville running a rpo heavy offense this seems like a bad match up for an offense that needs to establish the run to be effective.

Jacksonville won the first matchup between these teams 24-0, with most of their points coming off advantageous field position after turnovers. Without that sort of turnover margin I don't see Jax scoring this much again, but I also don't see an answer for Indy's offense. This opened at 43 and is now steaming down to 41 1/2 at a number of books.

Great write-up 2the9s
Thanks.

 

[2the9s]

Cardinals -2 1/2 -107 1 unit

No time for a writeup. Fade away.

 

[2the9s]

Week 6: 0-3 -3.22 units
overall: 5-10-1 -6.87

This year I've repeatedly beat the closing number and repeatedly been beaten over the head by results. I'm going to take a break from my experiment with NFL sides and totals and go back to what has made money for me in the past. Even if I am just running bad over a small sample moral victories haven't made up for lost money.

 

[Tanko]

Week 6: 0-3 -3.22 units
overall: 5-10-1 -6.87

This year I've repeatedly beat the closing number and repeatedly been beaten over the head by results. I'm going to take a break from my experiment with NFL sides and totals and go back to what has made money for me in the past. Even if I am just running bad over a small sample moral victories haven't made up for lost money.

Beating the closing line is a great measure and important in understanding how you are peforming.

I'm not huge on NFL but I track CFB closely. What I've found is that if you beat the closing line ~65% of time, it will turn into ~55% win rate. So, I estimate, someone's win rate is roughly 10% below the % of beating the closing line.

I have limited data on tracking this.... Too lazy to go track-back more years.

• CFB 2021: Beat closing line 71% translated into 59% win rate.
  On avg, I beat closing line by 0.92 pts (190 plays).
• CFB 2022 YTD: Beat closing line 64%. Win rate 55%.
  On avg, beat closing line by 0.45 pts (77 plays).

Hopefully, you're beating the closing line ~63+% of the time. If you are, you are just having a bad run and it should turn (regression in a positive direction).

Are you seeing simliar results on closing line % vs win %?

 

[2the9s]

Beating the closing line is a great measure and important in understanding how you are peforming.

I'm not huge on NFL but I track CFB closely. What I've found is that if you beat the closing line ~65% of time, it will turn into ~55% win rate. So, I estimate, someone's win rate is roughly 10% below the % of beating the closing line.

I have limited data on tracking this.... Too lazy to go track-back more years.

• CFB 2021: Beat closing line 71% translated into 59% win rate.
  On avg, I beat closing line by 0.92 pts (190 plays).
• CFB 2022 YTD: Beat closing line 64%. Win rate 55%.
  On avg, beat closing line by 0.45 pts (77 plays).

Hopefully, you're beating the closing line ~63+% of the time. If you are, you are just having a bad run and it should turn (regression in a positive direction).

Are you seeing simliar results on closing line % vs win %?

Thanks for the reply and congrats on your CFB results. My sample is too small to know if I'm longterm better than 63% at beating the NFL close, but so far I have been above that mark.

It seems frequently that fluky stuff is costing me money (teams going 0-6 recovering fumbles, teams getting 2.5x the yards as the team that beat them, the corpse of Matt Ryan completing 42 passes out of the blue), but I've spent enough time playing poker to hear bad players make excuses for why they lose instead of examining their own game. I think I need to do the latter before jumping back in.

 

[Tanko]

2the9s, I wasn't bragging. I just love crunching numbers and looking for edges/trends. I'm hoping to have some in depth conversations with other bettors on some of these topics. KVB across the street is deep into this stuff and talks way over my head. I'd love to have an hour with him to talk about it but he keeps his cards close to his chest.

Good luck.

 

[2the9s]

2the9s, I wasn't bragging. I just love crunching numbers and looking for edges/trends. I'm hoping to have some in depth conversations with other bettors on some of these topics. KVB across the street is deep into this stuff and talks way over my head. I'd love to have an hour with him to talk about it but he keeps his cards close to his chest.

Good luck.

I didn't take it as bragging. Good info. GL to you too.