2022 NFL bets

[2the9s]

Bills -200 moneyline 1 unit

The Dolphins benefited from extreme turnover luck against the Patriots and extreme injury luck against the Ravens. IMO now is the time to fade them as extreme luck is not repeatable. Extreme skill is repeatable, and that's what the Bills have on both sides of the football.

Money has been flooding in on Buffalo. I grabbed -200 only because a -5 1/2 favorite corresponds to a -220ish moneyline. Now the line is moving from 5 1/2 to 6 at some books. There's a limit to how much chalk I want to lay on the road coming off a short week, so I got it early. -5 1/2 is as far as I would go with this one and it wouldn't surprise me if this steamed all the way to 7.

 

[Tanko]

Raiders -2 -110 1 unit

For years the Titans offense has been focused on Derrick Henry, either running the ball or with play action passes. The problem with that tactic is that RBs have short shelf lives. Once an elite back stops averaging over 5 ypc they almost never get back to that level. Derrick Henry had that initial decline last year and this season looks to have declined even further.

Last year analytics ratings had the Titans as much worse than their record, and this season they're winless and football outsiders has them as the worst team in the NFL so far by their VOA rating. IMO this is not a fluke of small sample size, and at least on offense is evidence that what worked for them in the past doesn't work anymore.

The Raiders have lost a couple of 1 score games against tough offenses. If they had won 1 or both of those close games imo this line would be on the other side of the 3. The line opened at pick and money has poured in on the Raiders. The -2 I bet is only available at bookmaker, but 2 1/2 is everywhere. If you like the pick bet it now because if it steams to -3 a lot of the value will go with it, if it steams back to 2 or 1 1/2 it's not nearly as big of a deal.

Great write up. This is dead-on.

 

[Tanko]

Bills -200 moneyline 1 unit

The Dolphins benefited from extreme turnover luck against the Patriots and extreme injury luck against the Ravens. IMO now is the time to fade them as extreme luck is not repeatable. Extreme skill is repeatable, and that's what the Bills have on both sides of the football.

Money has been flooding in on Buffalo. I grabbed -200 only because a -5 1/2 favorite corresponds to a -220ish moneyline. Now the line is moving from 5 1/2 to 6 at some books. There's a limit to how much chalk I want to lay on the road coming off a short week, so I got it early. -5 1/2 is as far as I would go with this one and it wouldn't surprise me if this steamed all the way to 7.

I really like the Bills this year and would agree but Miami has something going on. I'm was laying off this game but Miami is now a +6. That's enticing.

GL.

 

[2the9s]

I really like the Bills this year and would agree but Miami has something going on. I'm was laying off this game but Miami is now a +6. That's enticing.

GL.

With the way Buffalo played on Monday the public could pile on and drive this all the way to 7.

GL with your picks.

 

[Tanko]

With the way Buffalo played on Monday the public could pile on and drive this all the way to 7.

GL with your picks.

That would be great. I'd probably put a couple of units on +7 but, it looks like the line is turning. Down to +5.5 most places.

 

[lynnhoward]

Bills -200 moneyline 1 unit

The Dolphins benefited from extreme turnover luck against the Patriots and extreme injury luck against the Ravens. IMO now is the time to fade them as extreme luck is not repeatable. Extreme skill is repeatable, and that's what the Bills have on both sides of the football.

Money has been flooding in on Buffalo. I grabbed -200 only because a -5 1/2 favorite corresponds to a -220ish moneyline. Now the line is moving from 5 1/2 to 6 at some books. There's a limit to how much chalk I want to lay on the road coming off a short week, so I got it early. -5 1/2 is as far as I would go with this one and it wouldn't surprise me if this steamed all the way to 7.


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I also like the Bills this year.

 

[lemartinsports]

welcome to BMR @lynnhoward

Bills have been lookin great so far thats for sure. will you be sharing any picks?

 

[2the9s]

week 3 0-3 -4.2 units
overall 3-5 -3.4 units

I'm feeling a bit snakebit after yesterday. All three teams I bet on gained more yards than their opponent, with the Bills getting well more than double the yards of the Dolphins. I need to take a few days to figure out if they really were bad beats or if I am fooling myself into thinking I was on the right side.

No opinion on tonight's game... maybe that's for the best

 

[Pimike]

Thanks 2the9s.
I let PiMike he can forget the surveillance job I had hired him for. Then again, the Seattle play could just be a diversion. Hmmmm....


GL

Haha

Just saw this.

I will hang onto the retainer for a Rainey day.

Lol

 

[2the9s]

Chicago Bears +3 -115 1 unit

The Bears are a run dominant offense (rated #6 by football outsiders) going up against a Giants defense that has struggled to stop the run (#28 by football outsiders). Again, by football outsiders' metrics, the Bears have a better defense, an advantage that will be magnified by a number of injuries to Giants wide receivers. Both teams are imo lucky to be 2-1 and not too far apart in value, but the style matchup and injuries favor the Bears enough that I'm happy to take the points, even on the road.

 

[2the9s]

Buffalo Bills -3 -110 1 unit

The things Lamar Jackson does well he does as well as anyone in the game. The things Lamar Jackson does poorly he does as bad as anyone in the game. So far this season, he hasn't paid much of a price for his miscues, but I'm expecting him to regress to the mean. Despite a lack of fumbles, he's still not imo protecting the football when he runs, and despite good passing numbers he's gotten away with a lot of poor arm angle throws through traffic and just plain missing his receivers by enormous margins and not getting picked off.

Despite a lot of defensive injuries the Bills are still imo the best team in football, and with Jackson being overrated atm and the Bills coming off a loss I think the market is undervaluing just how much better Buffalo is. Especially in a high total game like this I don't mind laying just 3 points in chalk.

 

[2the9s]

Jaguars +6.5 -110 1 unit

I haven't actually bet this yet, as I'm waiting until the last second to see if it goes back to 7. No time for a writeup, but I'm putting the pick here for record keeping purposes. GL today everyone.

 

[Florida Fever]

I like the card.

 

[Wagerallsports]

I like the plays good luck 29

 

[2the9s]

49ers -1.5 -110 1 unit

The 49ers defense is legit, having only once given up (barely) more than 250 yards. The Rams have a better record, but they got embarrassed by Buffalo, barely squeaked by a bad Atlanta team, and beat Arizona by 1 score despite being outgained in yards.

SF is coming off a 1 point loss in a game where they lost the fumble lottery. IMO now is the time to "buy low" on the 49ers. -1.5 is available only at the bookmaker books, but I'd still bet it at -2 as I think SF is the better team and at home.

 

[2the9s]

Week 4 1-2-1 -1.25 units
Overall 4-7-1 -4.65 units

 

[Wagerallsports]

49ers -1.5 -110 1 unit

The 49ers defense is legit, having only once given up (barely) more than 250 yards. The Rams have a better record, but they got embarrassed by Buffalo, barely squeaked by a bad Atlanta team, and beat Arizona by 1 score despite being outgained in yards.

SF is coming off a 1 point loss in a game where they lost the fumble lottery. IMO now is the time to "buy low" on the 49ers. -1.5 is available only at the bookmaker books, but I'd still bet it at -2 as I think SF is the better team and at home.

Solid call Buddy

 

[2the9s]

Week 5

NYG/GB over 41 -110 1 unit

Even though the most points the Giants have given up so far is 23, they've given up a lot of yards to bad offenses. Now they're facing the best offense they've seen so far in Green Bay. Green Bay's defense has done well against the pass and poorly against the run, which is a bad fit for a run first offense like the Giants have. 41 is widely available everywhere, but the total is starting to steam up a little bit at a few of the sharper books.

 

[2the9s]

Week 5: 1-0 +1 unit
overall: 5-7-1 -3.65 units

No picks tonight

 

[2the9s]

Washington/Chicago over 38 -105 1 unit

The flukiness that results from short practice weeks ahead of Thursday night games makes excessively high or low totals worth looking into imo. 38 is the lowest total this week, and it won't take many special teams breakdowns or missed communications on offense to put extra points on the board.

Both of these offenses are bad, but both defenses are below average also. The exception is that Washington has been good against the run so far, but I think the market might be overestimating this effect on the total. Chicago opened up their offense with some degree of success last week, and I suspect they'll do the same this week against Washington's poor secondary. I think the Commanders' offense is better than their output so far as they have gone up against tough defenses and had rotten fumble luck against one of their easiest defensive opponents in Tennessee.

This was at 37 1/2 earlier in the week and has since steamed up, but a couple books out there are at -105.