2022 NFL bets

[2the9s]

Week 1
Patriots +3 1/2 1 unit

The odds on the Patriots got longer in concert with their poor performance in the preseason. IMO a large part of that poor performance was the Patriots/Mac Jones's refusal to call audibles. They would run straight into stacked boxes and I'm sure refuse to audible out of bad passing situations that are above my ability to read, but not theirs. I think the reason for this is because the Patriots don't want to tip their hand as to how they'll react to certain defensive looks, as opposed to the Patriots not knowing how to audible correctly.

Since the odds got longer due to a factor that won't be present in the regular season, I think the line movement was incorrect and the number should be where it started, on the opposite side of the 3. A lot of money has come in on the Pats, but +3 1/2 -110 is still out there, and +3 1/2 -115 and +3 +100 are not hard to find.

 

[2the9s]

Broncos/Seahawks under 44 -105 1 unit

From everything I saw yesterday, NFL refs seem much more inclined to keep flags in their pockets on PI calls this season. I'm not the only one who noticed this, as the total on tonight's game came down from 44 1/2 after the games yesterday afternoon. It's possible/likely that the coaching staffs of Seattle and Denver noticed this too, and have directed their backs to force even more contact tonight.

I grabbed 44 -105 last night , a number that's not available anymore, but 44 -110 is not hard to find and imo has value.

On top of this, the Seahawks's offensive line looks to be one of the worst in the game and Geno Smith looks to be one of the worst quarterbacks. According to the analytics rankings I've seen, Seattle's defense is projected to be halfway decent, so there may be value on the under regardless of how refs have been directed to call penalties.

 

[2the9s]

Week 1 results 1-1 -.1 units

 

[Bubbles]

good start. a big hit on the under.

 

[2the9s]

good start. a big hit on the under.

ty

I got lucky on the under with all the red zone stops. That kind of balances out the New England pick. Miami's turnover luck made the game seem less competitive than it was imo.

 

[carolinakid]

gl moving forward with your nfl

 

[Enikk]

keep them coming and gL this season 2the9s!!

 

[Tanko]

Pats really crapped the bed week 1 2the9s. I had them too.
Hopefully, week 2 will be better for both of us. GL

 

[BobbyFK]

Keep those wonderful write-ups coming and good luck in week two!

 

[Wagerallsports]

See any early lines you like for week two 2da9?

 

[2the9s]

Thanks for the kind words, everyone.

Week 2
Patriots -1 1/2 -110 1 unit

Last week NE's defense forced the ball out 4 times. Twice the ball bounced directly to MIA players and twice directly out of bounds. MIA forced the ball out twice, recovering both and running one back for a TD. MIA also got a tipped ball INT in the end zone on a play that even the announcers thought was a clear PI.

IMO the Pats' bad luck on fumbles and tips gave Miami an easy win and bettors a favorable line on New England in week 2. This bet is also "selling high" on Pittsburgh. Their win last week benefited greatly from some fluky plays and some tremendous plays from a now injured TJ Watt. Whatever people might think of Mac Jones and the Patriots offense, it's not nearly as bad as Mitch Trubisky and the Steelers offense.

The line has moved since I bet it, but -1 1/2 -110 is still at bovada atm and I'd still bet it at -2.

More picks later in the week.

 

[jerryfallen]

I’ve heard about NFL betting a lot already. It seems to me that everybody has at least tried betting once. Moreover, those who were lucky and won had their money fairly transferred. I know it’s banned, but it seems to me it is still easy to do

 

[2the9s]

Cardinals +5 1/2 -110 1 unit

After the Cardinals defense got torched by Patrick Mahomes and an elite KC offense the line on this week's game shot up from 3 1/2 to 6. The market shifted back to 5 1/2, but imo the initial movement was based on an overreaction to an offensive performance very few teams, including the Raiders, would be able to replicate. I feel this even moreso if JJ Watt is able to play, and he's practicing today for the first time in the regular season.

The market also seems to be ignoring that LV lost and didn't cover in a game where they fell on every fumble and benefitted from the Chargers missing a FG and failing on 4th and 1 deep in LV territory. There's also a very real chance HFA is minimal to non-existent for the Raiders this week. They have had issues in the past with crowd noise from visiting fans and Phoenix to Vegas is an easy trip.

If you like the pick I recommend betting it now. JJ Watt seems to be a favorite to play, and an official statement on his status could shift the market.

 

[Tanko]

Unblieveable 2th9s. Pats and Cards on my NFL card too.

If you match the other 3 picks I have, I'm going to have to assume you're sleeping with my wife cause she's the only one who would know my picks right now. Keeping my eye on you.

 

[2the9s]

Seahawks +9 -110 1 unit

There's no need for a lengthy writeup here. Trey Lance looked completely lost last week and in a game with a total of only 40 I don't think he has the chops to lead SF to a double digit victory better than 52.4% of the time. I found a (slightly) off number, but 9 -115 is everywhere and imo still is worth betting.

Your wife is safe, Tanko. The other bets I was looking at were unders and the line steamed against me before I could bet any of them.

 

[Tanko]

Thanks 2the9s.
I let PiMike he can forget the surveillance job I had hired him for. Then again, the Seattle play could just be a diversion. Hmmmm....


GL

 

[2the9s]

No bets tonight.

Week 2 results 2-1 +.9
Overall 3-2 +.8

 

[2the9s]

Raiders -2 -110 1 unit

For years the Titans offense has been focused on Derrick Henry, either running the ball or with play action passes. The problem with that tactic is that RBs have short shelf lives. Once an elite back stops averaging over 5 ypc they almost never get back to that level. Derrick Henry had that initial decline last year and this season looks to have declined even further.

Last year analytics ratings had the Titans as much worse than their record, and this season they're winless and football outsiders has them as the worst team in the NFL so far by their VOA rating. IMO this is not a fluke of small sample size, and at least on offense is evidence that what worked for them in the past doesn't work anymore.

The Raiders have lost a couple of 1 score games against tough offenses. If they had won 1 or both of those close games imo this line would be on the other side of the 3. The line opened at pick and money has poured in on the Raiders. The -2 I bet is only available at bookmaker, but 2 1/2 is everywhere. If you like the pick bet it now because if it steams to -3 a lot of the value will go with it, if it steams back to 2 or 1 1/2 it's not nearly as big of a deal.

 

[carolinakid]

gl with the upcoming weekend of games

 

[2the9s]

Cardinals +4 -110

The Rams lost a lot of key personnel from their Super Bowl team and imo the love they're getting from the market is based more on what they did last year than what they are now. With JJ Watt playing more snaps this week the Cardinals defense should further improve their performance, and offensively they have a dynamic QB with effective options at WR in Hollywood Brown and Greg Dortch that the market is not yet valuing high enough.

With the Rams declining and the Cardinals improving, I see these teams as roughly equal, and I'm happy to take the points with the home team. Money has been coming in on AZ early, +4 is out there, but 3 1/2 is more common. This is another one to bet early because if the line keeps moving to 3 a lot of value is lost, but if it goes the other way to 4 1/2 you aren't missing out on a ton of value.