We have waited too long… semifinals start tomorrow!
Argentina (-114) v. Croatia
Argentina’s quarter-final win over the Netherlands highlighted their best and worst qualities as after some Lionel Messi magic put them 2-0 ahead, the game descended into an ill-tempered affair before they held their nerve to win on penalties. Under pressure following their shock 2-1 group-stage defeat to Saudi Arabia, they’ve battled their way through to the last four for the sixth time in their history, with Messi and penalty-saving goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez at the fore.
When La Albiceleste get this far, they usually continue as they’ve never failed to reach the final after having reached the last four, and as reigning Copa Ámerica champions they’re hardened knockout competitors. After one defeat across their last 41 matches (W30, D10) they’re just a game away from a sixth World Cup final - and likely Messi’s final chance at winning football's biggest national trophy - and will have the added bonus of being roared on by thousands of passionate Argentine fans in Lusail.
Runners-up four years ago, Croatia broke Brazilian hearts by beating the South Americans on penalties after a 1-1 draw to reach their third World Cup semi-final (W1, L1), proving again they are also masters of going the distance. They’ve won five of their last six World Cup knockout games after extra-time, four of them via a penalty shootout, meaning they possess a perfect World Cup penalty shootout record (W4).