donald trump now -175 favorite win presidency

[JDS]

Florida gotta be the biggest lock of a Republican state, I wonder what the odds are for that.

 

[lekidecincinnati]

What's the trade here?

I mentioned in another thread that I wish we could make parlays.

bovada offering republican potus dem popular vote +265 looks great value

 

[lekidecincinnati]

Florida gotta be the biggest lock of a Republican state, I wonder what the odds are for that.

not the biggest obv states like west va indiana kansas well there are some huge ones

florida is

rep -4000
democrat +1000

 

[KVB]

Florida gotta be the biggest lock of a Republican state, I wonder what the odds are for that.

BOL has Republicans -7500 to win Florida.

Big number, but there are far bigger numbers on a lot of other states.

In 2020 Trump won Florida with 51.2% of the votes.

There were 10,965,776 votes cast in 2020. Trump won the state by 371,686 votes.

But that was 2020.

 

[JDS]

BOL has Republicans -7500 to win Florida.

Big number, but there are far bigger numbers on a lot of other states.

In 2020 Trump won Florida with 51.2% of the votes.

There were 10,965,776 votes cast in 2020. Trump won the state by 371,686 votes.

But that was 2020.

Good info KVB thank you 🫡

 

[KVB]

bovada offering republican potus dem popular vote +265 looks great value

It's crazy , look closely at that post.

Trump is favored to win and the next prop is Election winner to lose the popular vote with NO favored.

Even though the third prop has Kamala favored to win the popular vote, the odds impy there is a chance that if Trump wins, he wins the popular vote too.

So a Trump win would be by way of popular vote. Those odds are approaching -200.

Crazy.

 

[KVB]

ovada offering republican potus dem popular vote +265 looks great value

If you take Tump to win at -190 and were able to parlay that with Yes to the winner to LOSE the popular vote at +140 the payout would be +266.32.

So there is some congruency in those markets, even if you can't parlay the BOL plays.

 

[lekidecincinnati]

It's crazy , look closely at that post.

Trump is favored to win and the next prop is Election winner to lose the popular vote with NO favored.

Even though the third prop has Kamala favored to win the popular vote, the odds impy there is a chance that if Trump wins, he wins the popular vote too.

So a Trump win would be by way of popular vote. Those odds are approaching -200.

Crazy.

he could win the popular vote but didn't he lose the popular vote in both the elections he ran, i just like the value as it's much higher odds than it should be

 

[KVB]

he could win the popular vote but didn't he lose the popular vote in both the elections he ran, i just like the value as it's much higher odds than it should be

Yeah, it's nuts. We might be seeing an effect of a lot of, how should I say it, bogus or slanted polls that flooded the Republican side. I'm not talking national credible polls, but a lot of BS that was put out there.

I suppose if the Dems were going to lose the popular vote this could be the time, not because Trump is some great thing, but because she is both black and woman. Those are huge obstacles in America, and apparently, based on rhetoric we've heard, it still is a giant obstacle.

Republican know how to exploit that.

 

[lekidecincinnati]

If you take Tump to win at -190 and were able to parlay that with Yes to the winner to LOSE the popular vote at +140 the payout would be +266.32.

So there is some congruency in those markets, even if you can't parlay the BOL plays.

yah but dont u have to take it for exactly the odds of trump win potus -190 harris win pop vote -170 if u parlay that not close to +265

 

[KVB]

yah but dont u have to take it for exactly the odds of trump win potus -190 harris win pop vote -170 if u parlay that not close to +265

Why pay -180 for Harris when you can get it for +140 in the other prop?

That discrepancy is why I posted them to begin with, it's wierd. But you see basically the same odds at Bovada in the parlay.

You can't parlay these props at BOL, but when they are broken down there so close.

The long harris odds to win popular vote exist because she can win it whether or not she wins the election.

But those two props above imply something different. Key word is imply and in implied probability.

 

[KVB]

Good info KVB thank you 🫡

Going back to 1952, the last 17 elections, Florida has voted Republican 12 of the last 17 times.

Calvin Coolidge, in 1924, is the last Republican to win the White House without winning Florida.

Bill Clinton was the last Dem to do it, in 1992.

 

[lekidecincinnati]

its crazy there are 50 states and every body knows how about 43 of them will go

 

[lekidecincinnati]

donald trump -200 at blovada

 

[KVB]

BOL:

Trump -210
Harris +180
Other +7500

Winner to LOSE popular vote:
NO -225
Yes +160

Popular Vote Winner:

Kamala Harris -180
Donald Trump+150
Any Other +7500

 

[KVB]

Here are BOL's popular vote margin of victories:

Harris 0-2.49% +210
Trump 0-2.49% +215
Harris 2.50-4.99% +350
Trump 2.50-4.99% +550
Harris 5.00-7.49% +1200
Trump 5.00-7.49% +2000
Trump 7.50-9.99% +2800
Harris 7.50-9.99% +2800
Harris 10% or Higher +4000
Trump 10% or Higher +5000

 

[lekidecincinnati]

trump back to -175 bovada

 

[KVB]

Market has been manipulated, it sure seems.

I was sayng months and months ago that there appeared to be overly enthusiastic red bettors out there keeping the market inflated beyond the actual probabilities, even with Biden in the race.

I may have been right, there is evidence of it.

Gonna be a close race, and shaping up to be men vs women in the end.

 

[JDS]

Market has been manipulated, it sure seems.

I was sayng months and months ago that there appeared to be overly enthusiastic red bettors out there keeping the market inflated beyond the actual probabilities, even with Biden in the race.

I may have been right, there is evidence of it.

Gonna be a close race, and shaping up to be men vs women in the end.

Did you Arb this election ? Also who do you need to make more money.

 

[KVB]

Did you Arb this election ? Also who do you need to make more money.

I’ve actually got a ton of bets already I’ve been making them for a while.

I have both sides as dogs.

But I also have a trade with Trump or Biden winning. It’s not a big trade, but the only way I can lose is if one of them were replaced, and that replacement won.

Then along came Harris, lol. Harris became such a big dog I was able to hedge.

Have other down ballot bets as well like Sharon Stone (Lake) to lose in Arizona.