JJGOLD Kalshi Is The Exchange We've Been Waiting For!!!!
- Thread starter KVB
- Start date
So I'm holding these still. The accounts also have both teams winning the superbowl below .40 for Sea and .30 for NE, bought weeks ago.
My opinion at game time was the Seattle would win, and then even possibly cover the Bowl. I did think NE would score first, and while I posted a little late and the price was still the same, the 7.5 short was made pre game.
The scenario of Seattle winning by just scoring mulitple times unanswered was defiitely in the cards, second most likely next to NE scoring first then giving up the ass.
With FGs in barrell, and only FGs, that 7.5 spread is still in reach with one score. With no score in the first half, and it being a game of halves, I am directing a hold on the spreads, for now.
At one point we were down well over half the value and even two thirds the value, but these positions are not very big to begin with as yesterday was a really good day.
Currently sitting at .35 cents, we hang on to the .64s and see if we can get a score before Seattle scores again.
So we hold, but the time value will press in the 4th quarter, and maybe then we'll see the volatility that has been lacking the entire game. Would be pretty mundane, dull, boring, you name it if Seattle just slow bleeds NE out, but that could certainly happen.
For now, the bet is that NE presses at one point, even if just to give up the ass and lose the Bowl. Ideally, I would like to see NE with the ball and the chance to take a lead or tie so I can sell the remaining NE to win contracts that are in the upper 20 cents.
If it we do get the press, it might come very late and until then will be ugly to watch.
Things seem to go so much as expected today across teh leagues, that an unexpected occurrence, though not likely, could come. Like a 14 point NE 4th quarter, only for Sea to win with a FG.
lol
That sound like an NFL thing to do.
While not likely, even one score gets them that much closer. The risk is worth the reward.
Here's to volatility, which we saw so much of and profited so much of, during the NFL playoff run this year.
Maybe the volatility bucket has finally run low or out it's not bottomless, after all.
lol
That sound like an NFL thing to do.
While not likely, even one score gets them that much closer. The risk is worth the reward.
Here's to volatility, which we saw so much of and profited so much of, during the NFL playoff run this year.
Maybe the volatility bucket has finally run low or out it's not bottomless, after all.
I had orders in against the Arizona -2.5 and they triggered in some recent volatility here at .47 cents. SO that's Kansas +2.5 at pretty good price.
Seeing quite a bit of Zona -2.5 (-115) or so out there, so, perhaps, not a bad grab.
Also, I know I use both the decimal point and the word "cents" but I just want to make sure it's clear.
Not sure I'm completely sold on Kansas tonight but I also have orders in on the Kansas moneyline because it's not what they bring, it's how the bring it. I still favor Kansas, in fact, but there is not enough information yet today to make a solid determination.
Can I see Zona jumping out ahead and staying there because of depth, yes. It's not the most likely scenario mapped out, however. Similar to yesterday, I see the small dog making some kind of move, and if they can do that, they can even win. Sure, they can move then get stomped by Zona, but that's why we're in the contracts, not the books with this one.
Put those eggs in one basket, and watch that basket closely.
It's early today, and even more risks than I already can outline coud still emerge and likely will emerge once the bullets start flying this afternoo.
Finally, this will likely not be the easiest week to trade, given what we've seen and the high success of last week and weekend.
Seeing quite a bit of Zona -2.5 (-115) or so out there, so, perhaps, not a bad grab.
Also, I know I use both the decimal point and the word "cents" but I just want to make sure it's clear.
Not sure I'm completely sold on Kansas tonight but I also have orders in on the Kansas moneyline because it's not what they bring, it's how the bring it. I still favor Kansas, in fact, but there is not enough information yet today to make a solid determination.
Can I see Zona jumping out ahead and staying there because of depth, yes. It's not the most likely scenario mapped out, however. Similar to yesterday, I see the small dog making some kind of move, and if they can do that, they can even win. Sure, they can move then get stomped by Zona, but that's why we're in the contracts, not the books with this one.
Put those eggs in one basket, and watch that basket closely.
It's early today, and even more risks than I already can outline coud still emerge and likely will emerge once the bullets start flying this afternoo.
Finally, this will likely not be the easiest week to trade, given what we've seen and the high success of last week and weekend.
Shit, I made the post probably 20 minutes ago, forgot to hit reply.
A lot of multitasking going on in the office, posting not an essential activity and is down the list a bit.
But I did want to show the pregame positions.
Filled some Kansas ml contracts, a weird liquidity sweep that filled a mere 3 contracts of my much larger order then went up a penny to rest.
Will need another sweep or have to adjust my buy if I'm going to get in fully.
A lot of multitasking going on in the office, posting not an essential activity and is down the list a bit.
But I did want to show the pregame positions.
Filled some Kansas ml contracts, a weird liquidity sweep that filled a mere 3 contracts of my much larger order then went up a penny to rest.
Will need another sweep or have to adjust my buy if I'm going to get in fully.
bigbill365
- Joined
- Oct 18, 2025
- Messages
- 248
I don’t quite understand Kalshi it’s a little confusing. Anyway what are you seeing in the Arizona vs Kansas game if you were to take a position on it?
Temptation can be a bitch. Sometimes numbers work out but you have to be aware of the environment.
I would love to pick some spreads for St. John's to cover, a lot of reasons to do so, but there is an extra risk given the success of the Superbowl week in the give and take markets.
It will be a very aggressive move to take St. Johns for , say -9.5 or even -15.5, but some numbers may make it viable. Aggressive based on my own metrics.
So now we have an available aggressive play on Monday after the Super Bowl. It may come, and I'm not ruling out putting in some bids. But it's also not being very patient in the wake of the Super Bowl.
Remember, this quote is a lesson in patience and discipline...
"It's not what you make, it's what you keep."
--KVB
I would love to pick some spreads for St. John's to cover, a lot of reasons to do so, but there is an extra risk given the success of the Superbowl week in the give and take markets.
It will be a very aggressive move to take St. Johns for , say -9.5 or even -15.5, but some numbers may make it viable. Aggressive based on my own metrics.
So now we have an available aggressive play on Monday after the Super Bowl. It may come, and I'm not ruling out putting in some bids. But it's also not being very patient in the wake of the Super Bowl.
Remember, this quote is a lesson in patience and discipline...
"It's not what you make, it's what you keep."
--KVB
An edge in number and price.
But it's a fluid situation and like I said...
Then I said this...
I may end up at a point in the market where I drop one side and immediately pick up the other. Now that would be aggressive for Monday.
Or even get out of everything before the game starts.
It's a fluid situation.
bigbill365
- Joined
- Oct 18, 2025
- Messages
- 248
Okay I’m on Kansas Arizona competition has been rather weak this reminds me of Michigan
DiggityDaggityDo
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- Oct 30, 2021
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