Why don’t I post many pics?

[KVB]

I'm seeing 37% return on a 3 month investment (annualize that, lol) and not seeing how any foreign country, doing anything, could possibly change the US popular vote.

The current facts are that JD Vance is hemorrhaging groups of voters. Republicans already blew it and unless they change candidates, the chances of them getting the popular vote are basically zero while the vig line gives them a 27% chance.

And that's in the face of, not just a woman, but a black candidate as well.

I'll let that money simmer for a mere 3 months, it's separate roll not dedicated to any other sport during that time.

Update from the other thread, we believe we have a winning trade here...

Harris now -325 to win the popular vote at BOL and if she isn't there in November the bet will be NO ACTION.

We expect this to continue to rise as we draw closer to election day.

While Harris is a black woman and this is 'Murica, two factors the we feel work against this trade, we have much difficulty finding the scenario where she loses the popular vote in this election.

Go ahead, hit this line again.

 

[flyingillini]

Update from the other thread, we believe we have a winning trade here...

great post and writeup, you are missing the variance possibility when it comes to Georgia and Nebraska, it is not like you to forget such important stats, please advise. God Bless you Kvbster.

 

[KVB]

great post and writeup, you are missing the variance possibility when it comes to Georgia and Nebraska, it is not like you to forget such important stats, please advise. God Bless you Kvbster.

No, Georgia and Nebraska are factored in but Harris has become favored in Nevada, and that's a tougher one to reconcile, clearly some variance at play there.

And then there's Zona, which, due to variance, could somehow turn blue.

A lot of facets to each side of the popular vote trade, but we think we have a degree of insulation from variance here.

This is what the calculator tells us.

 

[flyingillini]

No, Georgia and Nebraska are factored in but Harris has become favored in Nevada, and that's a tougher one to reconcile, clearly some variance at play there.

And then there's Zona, which, due to variance, could somehow turn blue.

A lot of facets to each side of the popular vote trade, but we think we have a degree of insulation from variance here.

This is what the calculator tells us.