Where are the NHL experts at ?

[pete0]

Season just started ...

 

[agendaman]

drop the puck please-great rivalry game oct.11 lads.montreal at the leafs.my pick-habs pl.then oct. 24 nba starts up.and college bb.oh my.

 

[JDS]

Paging @quantumleap

 

[KVB]

I'm planning on running an NHL campaign this year but I don't think the season starts until October 10th, next Tuesday.

 

[JDS]

I’m no expert in this market, but I want to learn it and I wanna make money in it, so I’m all ears.

 

[jjgold]

Canadians

I thought pre season still

 

[8-Ball Corner Pocket]

Bruh

Season starts Tuesday

 

[carolinakid]

Moose Power!!!

 

[JDS]

Bruh

Season starts Tuesday

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Season just started ...

 

[jjgold]

I will get involved

 

[BigJay]

Seems similar to baseball. Last month of the season all the goods teams so heavily juiced.

I rarely bet regular season but do bet playoffs although I’m definitely not an expert. Made money with the Avs a couple of seasons ago.

playoff hockey very exciting

 

[Microphone]

Seems similar to baseball. Last month of the season all the goods teams so heavily juiced.

I rarely bet regular season but do bet playoffs although I’m definitely not an expert. Made money with the Avs a couple of seasons ago.

playoff hockey very exciting

It's the best!

 

[8-Ball Corner Pocket]

View attachment 20210

Yea, preseason has been going on .
Weekend - Gap tp start the actual season
Tuesday - 1st Puck drop

Easy Play - 2.5* Penguins over 3.5 -130

 

[agendaman]

a favorite bet of mine is over 0.5 goals in period 1.

 

[pornhubcasin0]

I'm planning on running an NHL campaign this year but I don't think the season starts until October 10th, next Tuesday.

3x tampa -155?

 

[JDS]

3x tampa -155?

3X on opening night ?

Seems like an amateur move.

 

[KVB]

3x tampa -155?

Probably unwise to lay that on the first game of the season, lol.

My campaign, at least the one I mentioned above, really will require a minimum amount of data to see where we're going. That said there is an early season version, that doesn't account for different styles of handicapping the first couple of weeks of action (it doesn't have the adjustments).

But that first coupole of weeks can tend to more of short term type trading that can be as reliable if not more than the numbers I look to lay down all season along with the type of short term trading that gets into the trudge of the season.

The first few weeks are always a different type of market.

I can shed light on some of that market though with the early season forecast.

It doesn't like your bet. It produces a much closer game that doesn't find value. That forecast has a mcuh closer game and sees vig free line more like TB -115.

I would not be surprised to see the line move towards my forecast, even if it is the first game couple weeks, it will represent a certain sharp side, no doubt about it.

I don't like where this line sits at the very, very first game of the season, but from a value perspective I would take the dog and among a range of forecasts the dog is very tempting.

Not to mention there is this idea out there about taking the dogs in the first few weeks, it exists.

Tampa could easily win the home opener, I have them winning the game, but at the -150 range it's just to expensive from a value perspective.

And even when I lay contrarian adjustments over the game it doesn't quite do the trick.

This is a great clash between situation (as much as you can have with the first game of the season) and value. Somebody will get rewarded and somebody will pay.

I'd like to see where the chips fall, decide what the intitial market direction will be, before I start investing.

Tampa could very well win, but I don't see enough to warrant jumping in for a bet, much less 3X the risk of a normal bet, here. Although when I just re-read this post for typos and shit I really do lay a good claim to choose a contrarian type play if that is TB.

I'm not afraid to let a winner go by if it's not an ideal bet and if it's the 1st game of the season. If it did fall into my target circle, it would just be 1 bet worth, not three.

 

[KVB]

So that NHL Stacking Percentages forecast basically has the Total in the right spot at 6.5. If I weren't putting any discrepency I could say it was saying UNDER. I actually haven't decided how to treat "distance from" the line for the Totals forecast. For example, if the forecast predicts 6.3 points, calculating the value of that can be done, but just how much that differs from the market is usually small.

So as of now the forecast predicst TB to win and an UNDER. The current market has the UNDER 6.5 priced heavier, the market overall is pointing towards the forecast. If that line drops to 6, it's now predicting an OVER, and you can bet with a drop like that the OVER will be juiced up or at least favored.

The answer is to look at team Totals and places like BOL. A lot can be learned from the "opinion" they put down. Knowing that market and being patient in that market is probably a good idea.

 

[KVB]

The early season forecast has a no vig line on CHI/PITT as Pitt -295/+295. This does show some overlay in a -240 or -250 market and would be interesting to see if the that line moves toward the forecast as well.

When it comes to the Total it actually does show some value if the UNDER 6.5 pays enough. Getting +110 or so on UNDER 6.5 shows value but should that line press to 7 you will pay for the privilege of push protection on the 7.

The forecast has Vegas Golden Knights winning, with a no-vig line of -133/+133. It did show Seattle there with some value when it was upper +140's but the market has moved towards the forecast into the lower 140's.

The Total is dead on with the market we would be considered a no bet when tracked, having no prediction. But there is an OVER bias out there in the public and and as the price on the OVER grows getting an UNDER 6 at decent enough plus money can be in the cards....until it hits 6.5. Then the price has to be examined to see if it's worth it.

So you see there's a lot to unpack in these posts. There's a lot to track on the forecast alone, from whether it predicts a winner straight up, to whether it sees value there, to whether it was right or wrong on both.

While value and units are most imporant, this forecast is designed to be used multiple ways and simply tracking whether it predicted the winner, or puck line, without prices considered can be valuable.