What matters in selecting Baseball picks?

[Tanko]

Pimike,
I'll admit I am a novice to MLB betting. I love the game but have never dedicated the time needed to become proficient at capping it.

Last year I spent at least a couple of hours every day on MLB capping. I did not to well but I did not lose the house.

I'd like to improve. I would to here your basics for capping games.

 

[Tanko]

I've spent a lot of time trying to learn from so called "experts" on the internet... The guys that have systems like Stoffo. Here are a few other simpler systems:
= Take division dogs on the road with the total run line is 8.5+
= Take April dogs that have lost 1st 2 gams of series and were a dog in the most recent loss
= Take road dogs (up to +150) with last game as a loss, have a losing record, and are playing a team with winning record.

The systems go on and on and they state they have any where from 3% to 10% ROI.

As you can guess, they are full of s#it. I back tested dozens of these system plays using 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021 season data (skipped 2020 - covid) and none work out well over every season. One I found worked well 2017-2019 (5-12% ROI) but was -1% ROI in 2015, -5% ROI in 2016, and -20% ROI 2021.

I don't think the guys who publish these articles actual expect people to check up on them.

 

[Pimike]

I believe Padres chase vs DBacks would be safe

DBacks play Pads in a 4 game series.

hence I would be shocked if Padres lost all 4.


just for those that like to chase.