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Wake Forest +7.5 -108

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KVB

KVB

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Apr 11, 2023
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14,515
It's a failry tight line but as limits raise and we enter the last hour of trading I predict that the line could press towards 8. It's not a very confident prediction, but I think the sharper money took it to where value ended.

The public showing us this afternoon that they love their favorites and OVERs.

20 minutes after posting this Jazz went to 8. Know your markets. They limit sharps now. Even the BMR reveiw says so.

Can you pick up what I'm putting down? Are we surprised they're at the 8? Think about it.

You know I love to teach by real time example...


@pete0 @k310 @613tunit @purplegrape and anyone else I forget.
 
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JDS

JDS

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I've talked about so many different aspects and angles of the Contrarian Fund strategies but not sure I've gone into much at BMR.

One thing here is to note that the line was not only getting hit on the OVER, as I said could come, but the market blinked on it and is 159.5 in many spots.

When the market holds, like they were at 158 or so, but takes in that money, it can increase some contrarian metrics. It's the epitome of that low line that feels like a trap.

But they blinked, huge, before the last hour of trading too. While the number gets better for for the Contrarian Fund, some contrarian metrics get worse. It's a complex formula or better put set of formula that can sometime cancel each other out.

So is there still a contrarian look on this UNDER 159.5? Yes, to a degree, but the make up of the strategy looks different than it did before.

Just something I thought I'd mention to those interested. I know @purplegrape has likely missed a lot of my BMR writings and I should tag him more often.

One of these days I'll get a daily livestream or show where we run down the markets. Full of shit like this stuff in this thread and other recent threads.

:cheers:
Hell yeah would love to see you do this on video as an up close POV.
 
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KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
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14,515
The UNDER 158.5 and possibly 158 are on the radar here, as a Forecast backed Contrarian play.


There are 159.5s all over the place but Pinny holds at 158, juicing the OVER.

Could that be a sharp contrarian look they're attracting? After all, I said 158 was tolerable and now it's cheaper, at -104, but notice it's NOT plus money.

Like I said in a thread the other day, it's always good when they aren't begging for your side.

There's something here to this Contrarian UNDER look.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
14,515
It's a failry tight line but as limits raise and we enter the last hour of trading I predict that the line could press towards 8. It's not a very confident prediction, but I think the sharper money took it to where value ended...

...Let's see how the last hour of trading plays out. We could already be settled at 7.5, even money no vig line.


Pinny with 7.5 at -108 on each side in this last hour of trading, that even money no vig line.

But here comes all that volume on the Favorite, line will press towards 8 in the market.
 
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