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Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
46,547
Each team has played 5 games so we're seeing "the wheat being separated from the chaff".

Birmingham Stallions -6 -110 vs Michigan Panthers
Hopefully you agree that the Stallions are the wheat, and Panthers are the chaff. (I've been waiting to use that quote for some time now. Grampa loved saying it).:lmao:

Birmingham has covered the spread in every game. The Panthes have only covered the spread once and that was against the lowly Pitt Maulers.

Recent games:
Last week the Stallions played the Stars and won 30-17. I think the Stars are on par or better than the Panthers so that would drive me towards the Stallions covering today.

Last week the Panthes played the Bandits and lost 20-27. The Bandits are a good team but not quite as good as the Stallions (Bandits lost to Stallions 16-10). Again this would push me towards the Stallions covering.



I think this line will increase closer to gametime so I'm going to get it early to avoid losing some value.
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
46,547
The first game is a tough one. Tampa Bay Bandits -2.5 vs Philly Stars.

I'm not as convinced there is an easy side play to make as the 2nd game. Although these teams are 3-2 and 2-3 respectively, they've really not played well.

Stars won the two games they should have (Maulers, Panthers) and lost to the better teams (Stallions, Generals, Breakers). They did not cover the spread against the good teams and barely covered against the bad teams.

Bandits are in a similar situation. They've beaten the 3 worst teams in the league (Maulers, Panthers, Gamblers). They did cover 2 out of 3 spreads in those games. They lost to good teams (Stallions, Breakes) not covering the spread.

The only insight I can see for a side pick would be that Tampa did play the very good Birmingham Stallions exceptionally well two weeks ago, losing 16-10 but is that enough to convince me they can cover against Philly.... I don't think so.
 
Last edited:

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
46,547
I like Birm/Panthers over 38 as well.

The last two weeks the Panthers have given up 26 & 27 points to Breakers and Bandits. When the Birmingham Stallions play a poor team (e.g. Gamblers and Stars) they've given up 17 and 28 points.
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
46,547
I'm less convinced on this play but I lean TB Bandits/Philly Stars Over 41.
This one is questionable but if I had to make a play on the first game today this would be it.
 
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