Unranked home favorites still doing well

[JDS]

what do u base it on ?

Magic -5 the Spurs were in a 0-27 ATS fade spot last 4 years.



Kings -110



The details are circled at the top on the specifics of the situation.

 

[RRsilver]

I think these "systems" may have sucked again tonight RR... Be careful.

I don't use systems to make pick usually, but when they back up what I do like, it makes me feel better about my picks. As always, thanks for all the good info you pass along. Basketball is not my best sport.

 

[Tanko]

I don't use systems to make pick usually, but when they back up what I do like, it makes me feel better about my picks. As always, thanks for all the good info you pass along. Basketball is not my best sport.

You're smart. Never rely 100% on a system...
Systems give you ideas for games which subsequently need closer analysis to go forward with (if at all) or as you said, back up a play you already had in mind.

 

[Tanko]

Unranked home teams vs ranked teams last night. They were both dogs and lost.
(Just to note: JJ's Title calls out home Favs vs ranked teams, not dogs).

Georgia +6 Lost ATS to Bama
UCF +3 lost ATS to Baylor

 

[RRsilver]

Bama was down something like 28 -5 in the first half. 19 steals I think in the 2nd half and was killing the 3. Whatever Oates said at the half, woke them up!

 

[RRsilver]

Unranked home teams vs ranked teams last night. They were both dogs and lost.
(Just to note: JJ's Title calls out home Favs vs ranked teams, not dogs).

Georgia +6 Lost ATS to Bama
UCF +3 lost ATS to Baylor

Neb beat Wisc tonight Almost took it.

Wish I had.

 

[Tanko]

Neb beat Wisc tonight Almost took it.

Wish I had.

Nebraska pulled it out. They were down by 16 at one point and crawled back in the 2H. Wisc has so many chances to win it in regulation. They only scored like 1 point in the last 3 minutes and Nebraska got it to OT.... and then it was over for the Badgers.

Wisky should have won this game.
I love Hoiberg as a coach but Nebraska can't keep getting lucky like that.

 

[RRsilver]

Nebraska pulled it out. They were down by 16 at one point and crawled back in the 2H. Wisc has so many chances to win it in regulation. They only scored like 1 point in the last 3 minutes and Nebraska got it to OT.... and then it was over for the Badgers.

Wisky should have won this game.
I love Hoiberg as a coach but Nebraska can't keep getting lucky like that.

Didn't realize you took Wisc yesterday, I just mentioned it because it fit the system.

 

[Tanko]

Didn't realize you took Wisc yesterday, I just mentioned it because it fit the system.

I track the system and had Nebraska as a pick but when i went through the data for each team, Wisc was overwhelmingly favored and the line was a pick-em.

Looking at KenPom data Wisky should have pounded them and did for 30 minutes.
Nebraska is just a different animal at home.

 

[RRsilver]

I looked at the side-by-side data and its one reason I didn't play it. I probably would not have considered it, if not for us talking about systems the last few days. For some reason, I have better luck in round ball playing the smaller schools. Especially when playing in conference.

 

[Tanko]

I looked at the side-by-side data and its one reason I didn't play it. I probably would not have considered it, if not for us talking about systems the last few days. For some reason, I have better luck in round ball playing the smaller schools. Especially when playing in conference.

I mostly agree with that approach.
The lines for the smaller schools don't have the crap beat out of them and you can find some gems.

 

[JDS]

I track the system and had Nebraska as a pick but when i went through the data for each team, Wisc was overwhelmingly favored and the line was a pick-em.

Looking at KenPom data Wisky should have pounded them and did for 30 minutes.
Nebraska is just a different animal at home.

View attachment 26802

How much is KenPom for all their data ? I just use the free shit lol takes so long to find teams

 

[RRsilver]

I mostly agree with that approach.
The lines for the smaller schools don't have the crap beat out of them and you can find some gems.

I'm wrong a lot, but you can find some that look like the wrong team is the fav or at least 4 to 5 points different than I would have thought. I try to always look at the side by side. One site I go to quotes kenpom a lot, but I've never directly used them.

 

[Tanko]

How much is KenPom for all their data ? I just use the free shit lol takes so long to find teams

$22 for 365 days.

 

[JDS]

$22 for 365 days.

Damn that’s not bad.

 

[JDS]

Would you say it definitely helps your bottom line correct ? Or do you feel like you overanalyze and you’re not quite sure if it helps. Any idea that’s kind of a loaded question lol.

 

[Tanko]

Would you say it definitely helps your bottom line correct ? Or do you feel like you overanalyze and you’re not quite sure if it helps. Any idea that’s kind of a loaded question lol.

I get information from 6-10 different websites and I KNOW that I overanalyze games. Sometimes I have to take a day and just pick off the card without looking at anything, just so I can reset. Using data like KenPom can lead to analysis/paralysis


KenPom has tons of info and he makes score predictions for every game but the lines are almost always just +/-1 pt off so there is no edge there to using his preducitoins.

The real value is in the detailed team data comparisons (like the data table in post #29). He does not lay it out like I did. I had to put that comparison table together after downloading his data so it would be more combursome to make comparisons on your own without Excel.

Another thing I like to look at is a team's tempo (especially when picking O/U). He has the tempo data and all the other data for the 4 Factors that I showed in post #29, just not perfectly laid out for making comaprisons.

He only shows data for each team on separate pages like this for Butler...

 

[JDS]

Statfox.com

Teamrankings.com

Sportsline.com

These are my top 3 sources of data.

 

[Tanko]

Decent list of Unranked Hm teams vs Ranked Visitors today:

UConn @ St. Johns +3
Auburn @ Ole Miss +4
Utah St @ SD St -5 (<-- this one meets JJ's criteria for being a unranked fav at home).
Oklahoma @ UCF +1.5
BYU @ W. Virg +7
Marquette @ Georgetown +12

Ranked vs ranked games:
Tenn @ Kentucky +1
Houston @ Kansas +1.5
Iowa St @ Baylor -4
Duke @ UNC -4

 

[Tanko]

Decent list of Unranked Hm teams vs Ranked Visitors today:

UConn @ St. Johns +3
Auburn @ Ole Miss +4
Utah St @ SD St -5 (<-- this one meets JJ's criteria for being a unranked fav at home).
Oklahoma @ UCF +1.5
BYU @ W. Virg +7
Marquette @ Georgetown +12

Ranked vs ranked games:
Tenn @ Kentucky +1
Houston @ Kansas +1.5
Iowa St @ Baylor -4
Duke @ UNC -4

FYI yesterday's performance:

• Unranked Hm teams vs ranked visitors: 2-4.
  The one game (Utah st vs SD St) that met JJ's criteria for being unranked FAV at home was a winner
• Ranked vs ranked games: 2-2