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UFC Fight Night: Expert picks and best bets for Jan Blachowicz vs. Aleksandar Rakic
The spotlight shifts from lightweights to light heavyweights as the UFC returns home to Las Vegas after an eventful UFC 274 in Phoenix.
Former UFC light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz will face off against Aleksandar Rakic in the main event Saturday night. This match was previously scheduled to headline a March fight card in Columbus, Ohio, but Blachowicz had to withdraw due to an injury and the bout was canceled.
Blachowicz -- ESPN's No. 2-ranked light heavyweight -- lost the title to current champion Glover Teixeira at UFC 267, and his fight versus Rakic will be his first since that loss in October. Blachowicz, with an 11-6 UFC record, had won five straight before falling to Teixeira.
Rakic, ESPN's No. 5-ranked light heavyweight, is 6-1 in the UFC since joining the promotion nearly five years ago, with his lone loss coming to Volkan Oezdemir by split decision in December 2019.
Will the winner be next in line to get a shot at Teixeira's title? What will it take for each fighter to come out on top?
ESPN's Marc Raimondi spoke to Eric Nicksick for a coach's perspective on this matchup between two of the best fighters at 205 pounds and ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker added their insights for everything from the main event to some bets that intrigue them lower down the card.
Light heavyweight: Jan Blachowicz vs. Aleksandar Rakic
Coach's analysis: Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA
Tale Of The Tape: Blachowicz Vs. Rakic
| BLACHOWICZ | RAKIC | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 39.2 | 30.3 |
| Height | 6-2 | 6-4 |
| Reach | 78.0 | 78.0 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Last fight | Oct. 30, 2021 | Mar. 6, 2021 |
How Rakic wins: Distance management, like the fight he had with Anthony Smith. Use the low kicks again as he did in that fight. He used those very well, and it changed the pace against Smith. Jan can be a front-foot heavy in his standup. Rakic can take that away by using the lead calf kick to attack the lower half. If he can get that going, then he can start going downhill. Rakic has some solid striking. His knockout of Jimi Manuwa was impressive. He threw a rear uppercut, and Manuwa stepped outside with the left shoulder. Rakic blinded him with a left hand, then came with a left head kick. He has good movements with good reads, but he needs to keep the distance.
X factor: The grappling exchanges. I've never seen Rakic off his back. I've seen him top side against a very good guy off his back in Anthony Smith, and Rakic nullified that. I was impressed with his ground game. Who is going to be the better grappler? Whoever that is could end up being the winner. We've seen Jan in several grappling positions before, but Rakic not so much.
Prediction: I went back and forth on this one. I still have a lot of faith in Jan Blachowicz. If he can get into his grappling, he can run away with the fight. But I'm going to go with Rakic. I think he has the skill set to be a champion in this weight class. This is that litmus test for him. I wouldn't be surprised if Jan goes and knocks this dude out, either. It's an intriguing matchup.
Betting analysis
Blachowicz-Rakic: Striking Vs. Wrestling
| STAND-UP STRIKING OFFENSE | BLACHOWICZ | RAKIC |
|---|---|---|
| Total knockdown ratio (Scored vs. Received) | 6:1 | 4:1 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 2.8% | 6.5% |
| Head jab accuracy | 36% | 29% |
| Head power accuracy | 37% | 29% |
| Total standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. Opp. attempted) | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 53% | 25% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 44 | 20 |
| Takedown defense | 66% | 90% |
| Share of total ground time in control | 39% | 94% |
| Table compiled by Reed Kuhn |
Parker: Blachowicz to win (+160): Blachowicz returns to the cage as he looks to get back on track with a win over Rakic. For Blachowicz, he needs to approach this fight the way he did against Israel Adesanya, by leaning on his wrestling to neutralize the speed and power of Rakic's strikes. Rakic is a good kickboxer with low output and doesn't have many answers when put on his back. At underdog odds, I am going with the former champ here as I don't see Rakic outworking or knocking out Blachowicz.
Best bets elsewhere on the card
Davey Grant vs. Louis Smolka
Smolka to win (+240): For a long shot with a chance, look at Smolka against Grant. On paper, this is a much more even matchup than the 3-to-1 price for Grant suggests. The stand-up metrics are close, but Grant likely wants to keep the fight there due to his past knockout history. But the younger Smolka has far more UFC experience and has spent half of all his Octagon time on the ground. Smolka is fast in scrambles, advances position and has a variety of submissions. Should he close the distance in this fight, he's got a chance for an upset. -- KuhnMichael Johnson vs. Alan Patrick
Johnson to win (-150): Looking to avoid his fifth loss in a row, Johnson will be fighting for his roster spot as he takes on Patrick. Johnson will be the better striker, and if things get messy on the feet, he has a strong wrestling game to lean on. Patrick has meager output with poor cardio, and unless he lands a miracle punch, Johnson will get this done with relative ease and stick around the UFC a bit longer. -- ParkerVirna Jandiroba vs Angela Hill
Jandiroba to win (-180): A more affordable favorite is Jandiroba over Hill. The stand-up should be a relative stalemate, as both fighters tend to let their opponents set the pace. And while Hill is stronger in the clinch, Jandiroba is far more likely to control the ground game. With knockdown rates below average, the fight is more likely to be decided at close range. Despite taking losses against Carla Esparza, Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas, Jandiroba won a round against each, proving she can hang with top-10 talent. -- Kuhn
