Tuesday-Sunday NCAA Madness

[piratealew]

Really like this VCU team tonight, way too many points for a VERY good defense. Defenses travel. Some may be concerned about the travel but Coach Ryan Odom coched at Utah State so he will have his guys ready. They also won in hostile environs such as Nova, and USF. Further, no team has even touched 70 points against them since March 8th (Dayton). 6 straight games they've held teams to 65 or less. On the year, only giving up 65.5%. FT is another spot where Utah wont be able to add much as they only shoot 65% from the Charity stripe which is crucial in defensive games, especially down the stretch. Just too many points here. The KenPom rankings show not a huge separation as VCU comes in at #73, and Utah at #47. This could very well be a posession game, within a bucket or 2.

⭐️VCU+7

In the CBI final, HPU comes in at #108, while Seattle is 1 better at #107. I'd argue HPU is the better team and has the better, bigger players down low for this game. Bodo-Bodo should be too much for Seattle's hawks team.

High Point University+2-120

Wednesday Night:
⭐️IPFW ML-120
⭐️Seton Hall -4-117
⭐️VCU+7
High Point University+2-120

 

[Tanko]

thank you! Indy State wrapped up an awesome 4-2 tonight cashing both top plays. been a great run here in march. hope wednesday is as good to us

Before I forget for Wednesday, jumped on these 2.

⭐️IPFW ML-120
⭐️Seton Hall -4-117

Man it was tight near the end. Indiana St. freethrows saved our a$$. It was bck and forth over/under 3-3.5 pt spread for the last minute.

 

[patsfanatic]

sorry 4-1 night in NCAA. 4-2 NBA. Great night. good luck everyone

Looked like 6-0 in NCAA to me...

Either way continued success PA!

 

[piratealew]

Very close. actually 5-1as Fairfield was the lone blemish. i need to get my contacts corrected.

 

[piratealew]

Really like this VCU team tonight, way too many points for a VERY good defense. Defenses travel. Some may be concerned about the travel but Coach Ryan Odom coched at Utah State so he will have his guys ready. They also won in hostile environs such as Nova, and USF. Further, no team has even touched 70 points against them since March 8th (Dayton). 6 straight games they've held teams to 65 or less. On the year, only giving up 65.5%. FT is another spot where Utah wont be able to add much as they only shoot 65% from the Charity stripe which is crucial in defensive games, especially down the stretch. Just too many points here. The KenPom rankings show not a huge separation as VCU comes in at #73, and Utah at #47. This could very well be a posession game, within a bucket or 2.

⭐️VCU+7

In the CBI final, HPU comes in at #108, while Seattle is 1 better at #107. I'd argue HPU is the better team and has the better, bigger players down low for this game. Bodo-Bodo should be too much for Seattle's hawks team.

High Point University+2-120

Wednesday Night:
⭐️IPFW ML-120
⭐️Seton Hall -4-117
⭐️VCU+7
High Point University+2-120

Correction-VCU+8

 

[patsfanatic]

Very close. actually 5-1as Fairfield was the lone blemish. i need to get my contacts corrected.

Ah yeah, I looked at the Fairfield score from Monday night LOL.

I only played your top two games last night so thank you!

 

[piratealew]

IPFW avg 75.2 pts per last 5 and Norfolk avg 76.8 pts in last 4. Norfolk struggles to defend esp the 3 point shot, ranking 241in NCAA allowing 34.7% 3 point shooting while IPFW is 95th allowing 32.5% shooting. IPFW is ranked 38th in NCAA in scoring per game (80.5), and shooting great at 47.1%, and 36.3% from 3, and a decent 68% from FT Line, while Norfolk's offense has done well of late, They shoot at 45.6 from the field, 33.7% from 3 and 72.3 from FT line, I have this game in the mid 150's.

IPFW/Norfolk State Over 145-115

HPU is a high scoring offense, avg 84.5 pts per outing, while Seattle is a decent 73.7%, while HPU is the better shooting team hitting 46.1% from the field, 34.8% from 3 and 77.9% from FT line, meanwhile the Hawks of Seattle shoot 44.3% from the field, 34.5% from 3 and 73.1 from FT line.I have this game around 160.

High Point/Seattle Over 149-117

 

[stackingreen]

Looking forward to tomorrow, Pirate!

 

[piratealew]

full sweet 16 card so far, still considering clempson
⭐️UNC-3.5-115
⭐️Gonzaga+6-114
⭐️NC State+7
UConn-9.5-120
Iowa State ML-128
⭐️Dook/Houston Over 133.5-115
Clemson/Arizona Over 151-120
Gonzaga/Purdue Over 154-120

 

[jjgold]

I think Gonzaga is a sleeper

 

[piratealew]

Clemson game I'm going with a team that can keep it within 2-3 possessions tonight against an undisciplined Arizona team that averages 12 turnovers a game. To be sure, Arizona has the ability to put teams away, but they play too sloppy and undisciplined and yet to be tested in the NCAA tourney. The spread falls correctly into the ken pom adjusted ratings, I just think Arizona doesnt have much of an answer for the combo of PJ Hall (18.5 PPG, .8 steals pg, and 1.5 Blocks per) -who has played out of his mind this year, and Ian Sheffelin 9.8 Pts per, 9.5 rebounds per game) combined have been a force downlow. Clemson was a 4.5 pt underdog in round 2 against a champ-caliber and veteran Baylor team, by shooting 48.9% from field and holding Baylor to 38.9%, and 35.3 to 25% from 3. I believe they use the similar blueprint in a high scoring affair. Too many points in my estimation.

Clemson+8-117

Rick Barnes squad has a nightmare matchup with the Blue Jays on Friday, and I see this being the 3rd time Barnes loses in the sweet 16 with Tennessee. Tenn has a stud in Dalton Knecht but Creighton has their answer in a much taller Schierman who has the size advantage and speed to counter Knecht outside. Aidoo is smaller and less agile than Kalkenbrenner who has been dominant this tourney. Aidoo cannot shoot 3s so another huge advantage Kalk. Trey Alexander is also too big and fast for Ziegler, with a 7 inch disparty (5'9 vs 6'4) so he most likely will be matched with Ashworth leaving the Blue Jays top 3 scorers isolated from Rocky Top's best defender. While Tenn is ranked 8th in KenPom, Creighton hold a #11 spot, with a 11th ranking in offensive efficiency (compared to a worse tenn squad at 29th) and 23rd in defensive efficiency while tenn is more solid in that dept at #3. Given the matchups and size disparity, Creighton will use it's efficient offensive skills to secure a cover and win. Take the better offensive squad.

⭐️Creighton+3.5-115

 

[Tanko]

Clemson game I'm going with a team that can keep it within 2-3 possessions tonight against an undisciplined Arizona team that averages 12 turnovers a game. To be sure, Arizona has the ability to put teams away, but they play too sloppy and undisciplined and yet to be tested in the NCAA tourney. The spread falls correctly into the ken pom adjusted ratings, I just think Arizona doesnt have much of an answer for the combo of PJ Hall (18.5 PPG, .8 steals pg, and 1.5 Blocks per) -who has played out of his mind this year, and Ian Sheffelin 9.8 Pts per, 9.5 rebounds per game) combined have been a force downlow. Clemson was a 4.5 pt underdog in round 2 against a champ-caliber and veteran Baylor team, by shooting 48.9% from field and holding Baylor to 38.9%, and 35.3 to 25% from 3. I believe they use the similar blueprint in a high scoring affair. Too many points in my estimation.

Clemson+8-117

Rick Barnes squad has a nightmare matchup with the Blue Jays on Friday, and I see this being the 3rd time Barnes loses in the sweet 16 with Tennessee. Tenn has a stud in Dalton Knecht but Creighton has their answer in a much taller Schierman who has the size advantage and speed to counter Knecht outside. Aidoo is smaller and less agile than Kalkenbrenner who has been dominant this tourney. Aidoo cannot shoot 3s so another huge advantage Kalk. Trey Alexander is also too big and fast for Ziegler, with a 7 inch disparty (5'9 vs 6'4) so he most likely will be matched with Ashworth leaving the Blue Jays top 3 scorers isolated from Rocky Top's best defender. While Tenn is ranked 8th in KenPom, Creighton hold a #11 spot, with a 11th ranking in offensive efficiency (compared to a worse tenn squad at 29th) and 23rd in defensive efficiency while tenn is more solid in that dept at #3. Given the matchups and size disparity, Creighton will use it's efficient offensive skills to secure a cover and win. Take the better offensive squad.

⭐️Creighton+3.5-115

Clemson has a very good shot at covering. As you mention it all depends on which Ariz team we get tonight.

Arizona should win. Everything indicates that (net Effic, net eFG%, TO%, Rebound%, FTs) but I agree 8 pts is a lot for how well Schiefflen and Hall have played the last couple of games.

Thanks for the write-ups.
GL on the play.

 

[piratealew]

Glad the write up play on Clemson came through when UNC couldn;t. Hope Creighton and the rest are good to us.

Playing 3 dogs and 1 fave tonight. Gotta go with the much better defensive squad that survived the tough B12 guantlet on top, and is a more battle tested team.

Houston-3.5-120

 

[piratealew]

Crap Friday as only NC State came through, gotta love March madness.

Saturday:

⭐️Alabama-3
UConn-8-118

UConn line is high, but for a reason, as they have been blowing teams away in the tourney and lately. Defending champs, all that and they have the best coach. Illinois has tall guys who can stretch the floor and shoot outside, so I believe it will be close until late 2nd half and Uconn pulls away. Bama just has too much offense for Clemson, and while Clemson has a solid defense, their mircale run should come to an end tomorrow. Or I could be wrong again like I was on a few tonight.

 

[piratealew]

Sat:
⭐️Alabama-3
UConn-8-118
⭐️Illinois/UConn Over 154-120

Sunday:

⭐️Purdue-3-118

 

[piratealew]

UConn-8.5 (Live 2nd half)

 

[piratealew]

Monster day 3-1, 3-0 sides. Thank you Bama and UConn. Great day in mlb, nba and nhl too.

 

[piratealew]

Back from early Easter Service. Lot for us to be thankful for. Hopefully wife doesnt need surgery tomorrow or early this week (Complications of a cyst around ovaries ugh)...

One more so far for today I played early, looking at a total later:

⭐️Dook-6-122

 

[piratealew]

Grabbed the early Final 4 Game line, just missed 10, see it at 12 already at 1 book. May go even higher. Uconn should beat the breaks off Bama, and roll by 20+ if they play their game, like they did 2H of Illinois. I told many that UConn had matchup advantages over illinois in all 1-5, and with Bama I see about the same although Sears can cause some fits, UConn can stop him with their Defense.

⭐️UConn-11

 

[azbob]

At that number, it seems like the books are begging for Alabama money.