There is no logic behind political betting odds; no one knows anything

[stormtrooper8]

The odds reflect the polling data that has been published. I think the odds have been spot on through every twist and turn of 2024. I expect Trump's price to slowly shorten towards -300 over the next 3-4 weeks if Biden is still top of the ticket. There are 6 swing states in play and Trump leads in all of them. Technically you could say that there are a few more but they are pretty unlikely to switch from the 2020 outcomes. WI & MI are the most marginal and could well go to the Democrats. The problem is that PA has way more electoral college votes than the other swing states. Lose PA and you need 4 of the remaining 5 states. PA has a solid lead for Trump. As it stands Biden needs 2 from AZ, NV, or GA in addition to the 2 Northern states. Trump leads by about 3.5% in all of those 3 swing states. Most voters have already made up their minds. If there's only 15% of voters who are undecided it's going to be very hard to get a significant swing in so small a number of people. It's Trump's election to lose.

Where are you seeing Trump has a solid lead in PA?

Polling is going to change a lot, and also has a shit ton of noise in general

Biden probably has at least a coin flip shot in MI, WI, and PA

You may be right in how the odds shift though. Trump essentially needs to pick one of those 3 states off to win, and he is at minimum very live in all 3

 

[stormtrooper8]

If anything I would say Biden probably has a narrow lead in both Michigan and Wisconsin .

Pennsylvania seems like a total toss up at this point

 

[castelion]

If anything I would say Biden probably has a narrow lead in both Michigan and Wisconsin .

Pennsylvania seems like a total toss up at this point

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/

It's not impossible for the polls to change but the vast majority of Americans have already made up their minds.

 

[stormtrooper8]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/

It's not impossible for the polls to change but the vast majority of Americans have already made up their minds.

Polls have a ton of noise, and a lot more goes into predicting elections than polls

FiveThirtyEight, who you cited in the first link and is probably the most credible political forecaster out there, has Biden ahead in Pennsylvania at the moment

 

[stormtrooper8]

It's not impossible for the polls to change

Not only do the polls have a ton of noise

But they actually tend to change A LOT in the last couple months

That doesn't mean most Americans can still change their mind. It just means polling has a shit ton of variance in nows

Never a great indicator of the election by itself

 

[castelion]

Polls have a ton of noise, and a lot more goes into predicting elections than polls

FiveThirtyEight, who you cited in the first link and is probably the most credible political forecaster out there, has Biden ahead in Pennsylvania at the moment

That was the fivethirtyeight dot com link I posted.

270towin dot com has an interactive map where you can change the affiliation of states as you wish to see what impact they have on the election outcome. As things currently stand there are 6 swing states. Whichever party loses PA will need to win at least 4 of the remaining 5 swing states. The probability of that happening is very small. Pinnacle has the election: Trump -220, the field +180. If you can find a book laying Trump -110 in Pennsylvania I would happily arbitrage that against the field +180.

Differing opinions are fine. Unfortunately it's a topic many won't look at impartially.

 

[stormtrooper8]

View attachment 37957
That was the fivethirtyeight dot com link I posted.

270towin dot com has an interactive map where you can change the affiliation of states as you wish to see what impact they have on the election outcome. As things currently stand there are 6 swing states. Whichever party loses PA will need to win at least 4 of the remaining 5 swing states. The probability of that happening is very small. Pinnacle has the election: Trump -220, the field +180. If you can find a book laying Trump -110 in Pennsylvania I would happily arbitrage that against the field +180.

Differing opinions are fine. Unfortunately it's a topic many won't look at impartially.

That’s the raw polling average, not the prediction. This is 538’s current prediction: