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There is no logic behind political betting odds; no one knows anything

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JDS

JDS

Joined
Dec 11, 2021
Messages
47,875
The limits are low, so you’re just basically getting small random speculation wagers back and forth on a daily basis to move it one way or another. If this assessment is totally off feel free to properly enlighten me.
 

BobbyFK

BobbyFK

Joined
Oct 19, 2021
Messages
22,310
Election periods are the "worst" moments in every country. Prepare to block, unfriend, uncousin, unfamily, and fight the trolls if you're going to be active with your political views.
That's exactly why I stay out of it. No interest in getting involved with politics because everyone has their own views, you're not going to change anyone's mind and it's just going to cause fights
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
56,970
However, polls are a different story even though many ppl say they mean nothing

I saw & heard today that every president in the last 3 decades (28yrs I believe they said) who were leading in polls, also won the election
 

castelion

castelion

Joined
Nov 1, 2021
Messages
121
The odds reflect the polling data that has been published. I think the odds have been spot on through every twist and turn of 2024. I expect Trump's price to slowly shorten towards -300 over the next 3-4 weeks if Biden is still top of the ticket. There are 6 swing states in play and Trump leads in all of them. Technically you could say that there are a few more but they are pretty unlikely to switch from the 2020 outcomes. WI & MI are the most marginal and could well go to the Democrats. The problem is that PA has way more electoral college votes than the other swing states. Lose PA and you need 4 of the remaining 5 states. PA has a solid lead for Trump. As it stands Biden needs 2 from AZ, NV, or GA in addition to the 2 Northern states. Trump leads by about 3.5% in all of those 3 swing states. Most voters have already made up their minds. If there's only 15% of voters who are undecided it's going to be very hard to get a significant swing in so small a number of people. It's Trump's election to lose.
 
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