The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor
Jason Sobel
BET MGM
Anytime there’s a massively short pre-tournament favorite for a professional golf tournament, we have to weigh all the factors which led to such a conclusion.
Recent form and course history are, of course, relevant, just as they’re relevant when betting any player for any event. There’s gotta be more to it, however, than just that.
Personally, I’m very rarely even considering a short favorite, but especially when there are too many variables. One of the variables which is an instant red flag, is an exceedingly low winning score.
All of which brings us to this week’s CJ Cup Byron Nelson, where Scottie Scheffler (+250) is the fave by nearly 20 points against one of the weaker full fields of this season.
Since this tournament moved to TPC Craig Ranch in 2021, the winning score has been between 23- and 26-under all four times. Scheffler has played three of those four, and by all measures, he’s played exceedingly well. He’s broken par in 11 of 12 rounds and posted 67 or better in half of those rounds. He’s a whopping 50-under in those three starts. And he’s finished T-5, T-15 and T-47.
This isn’t to suggest that Scottie can’t win a birdie-fest. Despite going 0-for-his-first-8 so far this year, his nine wins last season included four with winning totals of 20-under or lower, but to underscore the original point, two of his lowest numbers – 25-under at The Sentry and 21-under at The AmEx – didn’t lead to victories.
Even if he was playing his best golf right now, even if this course played 10 strokes tougher over a four-day period, it would be difficult to bet Scheffler at such a short price this week.
Extremely low scores, though, tend to level the playing field.
This feels like a great “get-right” spot for Scheffler, where he can whoop up on a field of mostly lower-tier players and finally claim that first victory and a little momentum toward the final three majors, but I’m not willing to pay up to find out.
Instead, I’ll be chasing some boom-or-bust types in the outright market, hoping a birdie barrage can lead to a trophy at week’s end.
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Outright Winner Picks
Conservative: Byeong-Hun An (+2200)
I’m not sure which is more remarkable: That Ben An hasn’t posted a score worse than 68 in the past two years of this tournament, or that he’s only finished T-4 and T-14 in those two years. Look, I already warned you that players will have to go super-low to have a chance this week, but maybe even that is understating it, as An’s totals of 66-67-66-65 yielded only a top-five finish and three-stroke loss last year. That said, I do love his offensive firepower and love that he’s trending in the right direction, with three straight events of positive numbers off the tee, on the approach and around the greens.
His bugaboo, as its always been, is the flatstick, and while it might seem unnecessarily contrarian to play a below-average putter at an event which calls for a whole lot of birdies, I like the idea of playing him where he’s putted well in the past and this one certainly qualifies. Following a recent pattern of finallys – from Rory McIlroy claiming the career grand slam to Justin Thomas ending a three-year drought to Andrew Novak and Ben Griffin winning for the first time – this one would certainly continue that trend after a decade of An knocking on the door of a PGA Tour title.
Aggressive: Alejandro Tosti (+8000)
In most cases, my conservative outright play has a much better chance of cashing than my aggressive play, just based on the odds and probability of the situation. I’m not fully convinced that’s the case this week, which shows just how much I like the Tosti selection. He checks every box for me at this event: Hits the ball a long way (fifth on the PGA Tour in driving distance), trending in the right direction (results of 2nd-12th-5th in his last three individual starts) and a big-time longshot (the last four winners’ pre-tournament odds were an average of 87/1).
In a game of contradictions, Tosti is perhaps the most antithetical player around, picking verbal wars with fellow players while offering homemade empanadas to volunteers. His, let’s call it “unconventional” mannerisms have long overshadowed his on-course abilities, but he does own plenty of star potential and is proving it over the past month. With another title contention or two, I’m not sure we’ll continue seeing this type of price against these types of fields, so take it while you can get it.
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Top-5 Picks
Conservative: Lee Hodges (+1200)
I’ve written (and said) this on a handful of occasions recently, but I believe Hodges is among the more underrated players on the PGA Tour right now. A former winner of the 3M Open, he opened the year with top-10s in two of his first five starts, then missed nearly two months due to a rib injury and returned with a T-11 result. Well, being underrated also leads to being undervalued and much is the case with Tosti, I love the idea of playing him before the oddsmakers get wise to his talents.
Aggressive: Michael Thorbjornsen (+1100)
For a game that some people consider (too) slow, things happen in a hurry in professional golf. Thorbjornsen should serve as the latest example of how if you’re not keeping up as a bettor, then you’re falling behind. After all, it’s very possible that you eschewed the opposite-field Corales Puntacana Championship in favor of the RBC
Heritage two weeks ago, then paid less attention to the two-man Zurich Classic last week. If so, you missed the former No. 1-ranked amateur posting a runner-up individual finish followed by a top-five with fellow Stanford product Karl Vilips.
Things have clearly started to click for the massively talented Thorbjornsen and this one should suit his game, as well. I promise I wasn’t crying wolf about Tosti and Hodges, but really, if there’s one player who in the long run is going to look mispriced at this event, it’ll be Thorbjornsen, who has a little Ludvig Aberg-at-the-2023 RSM Classic feel to him this week. I like the top-five play, but I’ll certainly have some shares in the outright market, too.
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Top-10 Picks
Conservative: Jordan Spieth (+160)
I’ve said on more than a few occasions during the past 3-4 months that Spieth has gone from being one of the game’s biggest superstars to one of its greatest enigmas, but that description might be overcomplicating things. He’s really not that hard to figure out: When he’s putting well, he posts solid results and when he’s not, he doesn’t. Five times this year, Spieth’s putting numbers have been above field average – and he’s finished 18th or better in each of those starts. (In the four where he’s been field average or worse, he’s finished 28th or lower every time.)
And it’s not like this is some new phenomenon, either. He’s competed at TPC Craig Ranch three times. Twice his putting numbers have been strong and he’s finished second and ninth; once he didn’t putt well and missed the cut. Not that Spieth ever isn’t fully motivated, but I believe both Rory McIlroy’s successful pursuit of the career slam (which Spieth can achieve next month) and Justin Thomas’ return to the winner’s circle should be enough to get him especially inspired to start playing some better golf. I’m not quite ready to play him for an outright, but even at a short number, a top-10 ticket makes sense against this inferior field.
Aggressive: Sam Stevens (+600)
I’ll readily admit that many of my selections this week are simply number-chasing and while the Spieth play doesn’t correlate, this one certainly does, as Stevens’ outright number of +8000 is nearly twice as big as what I’d thought it would be. That’s largely because he hasn’t cashed a top-10 ticket since contending at the Farmers Insurance Open three months ago, but I’m a believer in his game and he’s shown at least a modicum of correlation for this course, having made the cut in each of the past two years.
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Top-20 Picks
Conservative: Ryan Gerard (+210)
Aggressive: Sami Valimaki (+280)
The ebb-and-flow, yin-and-yang, roller-coaster ride of professional golf is the most maddening thing about betting it. Form is, by all accounts, the most responsible measure for prognosticating success, yet it is so often fleeting, especially for those ranked somewhere below the game’s most elite. All of which should serve as a precursory caution in regard to each of these players. Valimaki has finished in the top-20 in each of his last three individual starts and Gerard has done so in two of his last three while barely missing out in the third. They each make a ton of sense to continue chasing in this market – and yet, everything we’ve learned about the ups and downs of the game should leave us leery about asking lightning to strike once again. I’m rolling with both of ‘em, because the head says to do it, but the heart is reminding me we’ve been hurt like this before.
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Top-40 Picks
Conservative: Ricky Castillo (+150)
Kudos to you as a golf fan (and bettor) if you can correctly differentiate Ricky Castillo from Rico Hoey, another long-hitting youngster with a ton of potential. I was close to simply listing both of them for top-40s – maybe they’d make for a nice parlay play? – but Hoey’s putter is still a massive concern, especially in a tourney where you’ve gotta go low, so Castillo gets the nod here instead. He’s cashed top-40 tickets in two of his last four starts – three out of five, if we include the Zurich – and seems to be getting more comfortable as the season continues, not unlike Hoey did last year. See? Still can’t separate ‘em.
Aggressive: Joseph Bramlett (+160)
At this point in his career, we sort of know who the 37-year-old Bramlett is. Despite a third-place finish at the Puerto Rico Open last month, he’s a player who often pops up on Thursday leaderboards, rarely keeps it going through the weekend, but usually owns a pretty high floor in relation to his odds. He’s finished in the top-40 in four of his last six PGA Tour starts, not to mention each of his last three on the Korn Ferry circuit, as he bounces back and forth between the two of them. In the last four years at this event, he owns a T-7 and T-19.
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson First-Round Leader Picks
Conservative: Charley Hoffman (+9000)
He might not own a great record at this event since the move to Craig Ranch, but Hoffman is often on the FRL radar, with opening scores of 65 and 66 among his last five opening rounds. If the wind starts blowing, Charley is a guy who thrives in those conditions.
Aggressive: Isaiah Salinda (+8000)
He’s no Keith Mitchell, but Salinda ranks a not-too-shabby 22nd in R1 scoring average this season, which doesn’t even include the opening 58 he posted in best-ball alongside Kevin Velo at the Zurich Classic last week. He’s got exactly what we’re looking for in FRL plays – serious offensive firepower and a decent number next to his name. I believe some will be on Salinda for a full four-round investment this week, which I don’t hate, but I’d rather take him as a Thursday-only selection.
