BMR Social
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- Apr 4, 2022
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By: Doug Upstone
Happy Memorial Day, hope you had a great weekend! The Jimmy Garoppolo story has new updates and to say they are shocking is not an understatement. Not sure if Miami Heat reserve Caleb Martin is the most popular prop bet going in the NBA, but he should be as we explain.
We also have news from the weekend and a great story about Liam Hendriks of the White Sox. This and an absorbing conversation about Baseball Sunday and the public’s blistering baseball picks.
About Last Weekend…
NBA
In Game 6, Boston had it under control for three quarters, gave it away, and looked like they lost the series when out of nowhere Derrick White saved the Celtics’ season.Not sure how Miami overcomes this loss, as that was as brutal as it gets. And suddenly Jimmy Butler looks both physically and mentally spent as does the entire Miami club.
The point spread is good-sized with Boston at -7.5 and we know no team has ever come back from down 0-3. But three teams that did force a Game 7, none of them had played on their home court.
NHL
Vegas started as expected in Game 5 and twice had leads only to lose them within minutes. Dallas took over after tying the game at 2-2. The Stars’ game plan has been altered, as they are trying to take the puck deep in the circles and between the dots of each circle.That has helped them win both games after being down 3-0 and they’ll have a chance to square things up at home Monday evening as favorites.
MLB
The Detroit Tigers started like Kansas City and were 2-9 to begin the season. The Tigers’ front office thought they could contend in the weak AL Central but did not start that way. However, since, Detroit is 23-17 and on a 5-2 run, and just one game behind Minnesota for the top spot in the division. After taking three of four against the White Sox at home, the Tigers are currently the 5th-best bet in baseball (+9.2 units).For those wondering if the L.A. Angels had finally turned a corner when they lifted their record to 29-23, never mind. The Halos were swept over the weekend by Miami, all as favorites of -125 or higher, scoring seven total runs.
The Chicago Cubs tried to fool fans (and bettors) with their offseason signings of pedestrian players other than Dansby Swanson. The Cubs were a bit over .500 on the North Side, but since are 5-14 and were just swept at home by Cincinnati and they have surrendered 35 runs in their last four outings. The Cubs are now in last place in the NL Central.
Trendy Talk
MLB
- Houston is 35-10 vs. AL teams allowing 3.9 or fewer runs a game.
- San Francisco opens a new series having won 10 of 13.
- Baltimore is 24-11 when playing against a mediocre team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%).
- Chicago Cubs are 13-4 Over vs. teams outscoring foes by 0.5 or more runs a game.
- Atlanta is 10-2 Over vs. a team with a bad bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or worse.
- M. Kopech and the White Sox are 1-8 after giving up no earned runs last outing the last two seasons.
NBA
Boston is 14-6 ATS in home games after having won three of their last four games.NHL
Vegas is 12-5 revenging two straight losses where the opponent scored three or more goals.What to Watch For and Win (Hopefully)
NBA
Who would have guessed this would happen? Game 7 of the East Finals. Does Boston become the first team to win a series when down 0-3? And cover? Learn what our experts forecast for your NBA picks.MLB
On Memorial Day we kick off another week of baseball action and we deliver the goods with a vast assortment of free MLB picks that you might want to use.NHL
Vegas has lost two in a row after being up 3-0. Do they put away Dallas or will there be a Game 7? Read what our hockey experts think at our NHL picks.The Buzz
NFL - Jimmy Garop Had What? - Fresh Update
On Friday we told you Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo had foot surgery in March after signing in Las Vegas and is still recovering.Since we have learned Jimmy G reportedly failed his first Las Vegas physical and had his contract reworked with supposed language that stipulates he could be “cut” if he fails another physical and the Raiders would not owe him a nickel.
That was followed up by some offshore sportsbooks making Tom Brady the 2-1 choice to start the season for Silver and Black if Garoppolo fails his physical. Pure madness!
MLB - The White Sox Liam Hendricks Amazing Cancer Story
It is worth your time.Top Betting System
MLB - Reds at Red Sox (-190 ML)
With all the top systems day games, we moved on to Tuesday.Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like Cincinnati, batting .325 or better over their last three games, against an opponent with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games. Clubs like the Reds are 7-30 since 2019 in this situation.
Out the Door
NBA: Caleb Martin the Betting Props King
As far as we can tell in looking back, Miami’s Caleb Martin opened Game 1 at Over/Under 10.5 points against Boston. Martin scored 15 points in the contest and his game-by-game total has steadily increased to the point he is at O/U 15.5 for Game 7. Martin is 6-0 Over in this series, averaging 18.1 PPG.MLB - Might Want to Read and Think This Through Before Speaking
This conversation happened with Giants’ baseball announcers Sunday.MLB – Atlanta Braves Have Taken – Long Ball – To New Heights According to @ESPNStatsInfo
Most 440+ foot homers hit this year:- Braves - 19
- Rockies - 11
- Padres - 8
- Giants - 6
- Pirates -6
What Bettors Like – Play or Fade?
MLB - Top 5 Bets by Percentage (highest first) (74-43 record, 28-9 run)
- Dodgers (just went with the top ones with so many day games)
- Rangers
- Rockies/D-Back Over
- Braves/A’s Over
- Braves
NBA Top 2 Bets by Percentage (Highest First) (66-42-1 Record 42-26 Run)
- Heat
- Celtics/Heat Over
NHL Top 1 Bet by Percentage (Highest First) (35-26 Run)
- Nothing
Let’s get some winners! See you back here Wednesday.
