BMR Social
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2022
- Messages
- 237
By: Doug Upstone
Earlier today, Aaron Rodgers decided 60 million is a reason enough to come back, and like his predecessor Brett Favre, he will continue his NFL career wearing green, just a different shade.
We have all sorts of fresh information for you about March Madness to hopefully help you against the college basketball odds. And somehow, golf is in the news and all over Twitter and we cover it while offering all kinds of free picks.
About Last Night…
March Madness
What last night’s First Four games lacked in quality, they were exciting and that’s what we're looking for. Texas A&M CC got the cover with a second remaining and moneyline bettors on Pittsburgh had to survive Mississippi State’s last shots to cash. Good start, let’s keep the madness going.Not sure if Rutgers was feeling bad for not making the NCAA Tournament, but one of the reasons they didn’t was losing leads late in games. That happened again last night as the Scarlet Knights were up five points at home with 30 seconds left and were caught by Hofstra and they went on to lose in OT as 5.5-point favorites. A rough couple of days for Rutgers, though when there are 68 teams, it’s not like you were screwed.
NBA
Milwaukee is looking more and more like the team to beat, with back-to-back night road wins at Sacramento and Phoenix, with strong fourth quarters at crunch time. Thanks to a 21-2 surge, BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) now has the Bucks as the favorites to win the championship at +325 NBA odds.Trendy Talk
NCAAB
- Texas Southern is 12-3 ATS when playing on a neutral court since 2020.
- Nevada is 9-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.
- Cincinnati is 10-0 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.
- Oral Roberts is 0-9 ATS playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games since last season.
- San Diego St. is 8-0 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots a game after 15+ games this season.
- Penn St. is 7-0 ATS in all tournament games this season.
- Virginia is 1-7 ATS after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less.
- Utah St. is 12-3 ATS in all neutral court games the last two seasons.
NBA
- Memphis is 13-1 ATS after scoring 105 points or less this season.
- Golden State is 8-24 ATS in road games this season.
- Chicago is 14-3 Under versus teams making 48% or more of their shots.
- Miami is 17-6 Under after a win by six points or less.
NHL
- Toronto is 14-2 after allowing two goals or more in the third period of the last game.
- St. Louis is 2-11 off a home loss by two goals or more.
- Anaheim is 2-14 when playing with two days' rest.
- Buffalo is 15-5 Over after a division game.
What to Watch For and Win (Hopefully)
March Madness
We move ahead to Day 2 of the First Four after a couple of tight games. Next is Round 1 on Thursday and we have numerous game writeups and free NCAAB picks along with parlay action and other best bets.NBA
There are two important matchups with the 76ers vs. Cavaliers and Warriors vs. Clippers on ESPN. With so much March Madness Thursday, we still have best bets in The Association.NHL
Wednesday on TNT they have a doubleheader but the game of the day is Colorado at Toronto. Get our complete breakdown of this battle.Golf
The Valspar Championship is this weekend and we have the best bets and props to ponder for Thursday’s start.MLB
We’re just 15 days away from the start of another great season of baseball and we keep adding new material and free MLB picks for you to get you ready for spring and summer of betting action.The Buzz
NFL – Breaking News: Aaron Rodgers Tells Where He Expects to Play in 2023
On the Pat McAfee Show today, Rodgers said, “since Friday I made it clear my intention was to play and my intention was to play for the New York Jets“. That should be that.Golf – Possible Golf Ball Changes
USGA and the R&A are proposing a new rule that would allow tours and tournaments the option to require elite men's players to use a golf ball that will be tested under modified launch conditions to curtail how far it is hit.The reason for this is 300 yards is now the norm for driving at the pro level and many courses are becoming obsolete because they are becoming driver, wedge courses because they cannot add more length.
Not unexpectedly the players find it unnecessary because they want all the adoration and have the ability to shoot 15 to 20 under par or more under perfect conditions.
We agree going backward is not the solution. Make the courses harder. Don’t take out trees because it makes the course more difficult, leave them or start growing them. Also, narrow the fairways, make the rough more penal, and don’t have the bunkers so perfect that it is easier to hit out of those than hitting off the grass around the greens.
Top Betting System
NCAAB – Colgate vs. Texas Total (151)
Play Under on neutral court teams like Colgate when the total is between 150 and 159.5 points, in a game involving two teams outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG in the second half of the season. The Under is 24-6 since 2018.Out the Door
Soccer – History and Someone to Watch
Though this writer is not a big soccer fan, I appreciate greatness in any sport. Here is a name to remember, Erling Haaland.NFL – Lamar Jackson
Given the various quarterback signings and teams expected to draft quarterbacks, what options does Jackson have left? Baltimore, Indianapolis, and Houston it seems. And are the last two willing to completely change their offensive philosophy to bring in Jackson for 40 or more million a year?March Madness – Betting Tips (From Friend Steve Makinen at VISN.com)
- Oddsmakers have done bettors a favor by signaling first-round upsets, as small first-round favorites of -1 to -3 are just 49-55 SU and 38-62-4 ATS (38%) since 2009. (Against Arkansas -1.5, Memphis -2, Miami -2, Michigan St -2, Northwestern -1.5, Texas A&M -3, Utah St -1.5, West Virginia -2)
- Be wary of laying big numbers with #2 seeds, as they are just 12-23-1 ATS (34.3%) since ’05 when favored by 17 points or more. This includes four straight ATS losses and an upset of Kentucky a year ago. (Against UCLA -17.5)
- #4 seeds have been somewhat unreliable lately for bettors, going 11-20-1 ATS (35.5%) over the last eight tourney seasons, including 5-13-1 ATS (27.8%) when favored by 8.5 points or more. (Against Tennessee -11.5, Connecticut -9.5, Indiana -4, Virginia -5)
What Bettors Like – Play or Fade?
NBA Top 4 Bets by Percentage - Highest First (15-16 record, 1-5 run)
- Mavericks
- Lakers
- Warriors/Clippers Over
- Celtics/Timberwolves Over
NCAAB Top 5 Bets by Percentage - Highest First (26-15-1 record)
We wanted to add flavor for Thursday also, so here are the highest betting percentages for the Tournament.- Alcorn St./No. Texas Under ((Wednesday)
- West Virginia/Maryland Over
- Illinois/Arkansas Under
- Charleston/San Diego St. Under
- Houston
NHL Top 3 Bets by Percentage - Highest First (12-15 record)
- Capitals
- Avalanche/Maple Leafs Over
- Islanders
Let’s get some winners! See you back here Friday.
