Tanko's Picks - Making a Play on Every MLB Game Today 7/1/22

[Tanko]

Returned from vacation late last night. Vacation plays 5-3 +2.56 units.
Tough to cap games to any extent while continually running around. It's time to jump back in with both feet.



I'm going to make small plays on every game today. Capping each game should help me get back into the rhythm for the next couple of months (until football picks up).

You can criticize, condemn, chastise, castigate, cut up,..... any and all my plays.

Lets see how this goes.

 

[Tanko]

Boston @ Chicago Cubs 2:20 ET

Hill (BOS) vs Sampson (CHC). Hill is a southpaw but the Cubs bats do just as well against them as righties. Sampson only has 10 innings under his belt this season. He's looked good but seems a little green yet for the season. I don't see any big edge for a side on pitching since its tough to read how well Sampson will do in his 2nd offical start of the year.

I see no batting edge for either team. They are both hitting the ball well of late.

Slight edge for Boston in the bullpen.

Boston has been winning a lot lately 20-6 in June. Cubs have been more choppy 5-5 in last 10.
Momentum play on this one.

Play: Boston ML -141

 

[lemartinsports]

i'm here for it, let's goooo tanko! you got this

 

[Wagerallsports]

Heck why not?!

Good idea

 

[Tanko]

Tampa Bay @ Toronto 3:07 ET

I like Kluber (TB) vs Berrios (TOR) in this one. Kluber has been 2.5 ERA and Berrios has been lit up his last couple of starts. Toronto's bats have been better lately so I'm going F5 to capitalize on Kluber's time. The key to this play is TB bats generating some runs in the F5.


TB Rays FF ML +122

 

[BobbyFK]

When are you going to throw those darts again?
Good luck today!

 

[lemartinsports]

When are you going to throw those darts again?
Good luck today!

right, we should have Tanko's Tips where he throws darts as our betting tips

 

[Tanko]

When are you going to throw those darts again?
Good luck today!

Got to get back into the rhythm of capping again after a week off.
Then we might get the darts out when its a slow MLB day.

 

[Tanko]

St Louis @ Philly 6:05 ET

Mikolas (STL) vs Falter (PHI). Clear advantange in starting pitching for the Cardinals. Falter has been on covid list and up/down from AAA this season.

Both teams are batting well.

STL bullpen is stronger than Phillies giving them an edge in late innings.

The only edge I see for Phillies is that the game is at home but they are a 0.500 team at home this season simliar to STL record on the road.

The Cards are a better team overall so we'll roll with the them and Mikolas.

STL ML -137

 

[Tanko]

Miami @ Washington 6:05 ET

Rogers (MIA) vs Gray (NATS): The Nationals are not a very good team this year. I mean they are bad but, today I think they get a win with Josiah Gray on the mound. Gray is pitching lights out lately. 1.27 ERA over his 4 starts in June. Rogers is 7.06 ERA over 5 starts in same period.

Washington bats have not been great this year but over the last week they are 5th in MLB batting at 0.285 AVG and are in top 6 in WRC+ and OPS. Miami is in the bottom 10 in same categories over the same period.

Bullpens are roughly even in strength between these teams.

Neither team has much momentum going with 6-4 (WAS) and 5-5 (MIA) records over the last 10.

WAS ML -130

 

[lemartinsports]

love the homework being put into each game

 

[Tanko]

Atlanta @ Cincy 6:40 ET

"Mad" Max Fried (ATL) vs Mike "I wish I was a Major" Minor (CIN). Fried is stellar. 2.77 ERA for season and 2.16 ERA in 5 June starts. All-star stats. No offense to Mike Minor but the guy should only be pitching batting practice in the majors. 7.71 ERA season and that's about as low as its been in his 5 starts since he was called up in early June.

Cincy bullpen is also weak at 5.25 ERA. The only pitcher that is good is Diaz and he's on 15 day DL.

This one seems too obvious. Watch, Minor will pitch a complete game and Fried will give up 10 runs.

Atlanta Over 5.5 -140

 

[Tanko]

love the homework being put into each game

That's what I do to cap any game. There's more to it that I indicate but, I don't want to write a book for each game. The write-ups are already probably more than most will read.

 

[Tanko]

Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh 7:05 ET

Burnes (MIL) vs Contreras (PIT). I really like both of these pitchers. The lines for this game are all tight &/or pricey in my opinion. I'm not seeing a lot of edge.

MIL is batting well over the last 7 days 0.277 AVG vs PIT at 0.231.

I think it will be a close game until the relievers come in, especially the PIT relievers who are very weak (4.01 ERA vs 2.86 for MIL). At that point MIL should take over and win easily. Contreras hasn't gone more than 5 innings in 7 starts this season so expect MIL to score more runs late.

This one might be more of a stretch but we'll go with....

MIL RL -1.5 -122

 

[Tanko]

Kansas City @ Detroit 7:10 ET

Keller (KC) vs Pineda (DET). Pineda coming off rehab at AAA for a broken middle finger. Pineda was good before the injury but I have questions until he proves himself now. He'll likely be on a pitch count so we won't see him long IMO. Keller (4.56 ERA) gives up runs regularly and is actually trending worse than that.

The batting averages are close with DET having the slight edge in recent weeks.

Detroit bullpen is much better than KC's. I think that is the only clear edge in this game for either team.

Neither team has momentum. So based strictly on DET bullpen being stronger and the pen being called upon early due to Pineda rehab, we'll go this route....

DET ML -109

 

[Tanko]

NY Yankees @ Cleveland 7:10 ET

Although Cleveland has been doing well in June, they've played some of the worst teams in the AL to get momentum for the month. Only the last few series have been against decent teams (if you can call the Twins decent).

Going back to the end of May their series have been mainly against < 0.500 teams.
@Detroit (<0.500)
KC (<0.500)
@Baltimore (<0.500)
Texas (<0.500)
Oakland (<0.500)
@Colorado (<0.500)

@Dodgers (won series 2-1)
@ Minn (won series 2-1)
Boston (lost series 0-3)
Minn (won series 3-2)

IMO. This one is pretty straight forward. Cole (NYY) vs Civale (CLE). 2.99 ERA vs 7.20 ERA.
The ML is too juicy so we'll go with the RL.


NYY RL -1.5 -137

 

[carolinakid]

GL with your extra large card today

 

[Tanko]

GL with your extra large card today

Its supersized CK.

I've not made many plays due to vacation and BOL sent my wife an email asking if I'd passed away. I thought I'd let them know I'm alive by making a crapload of plays today.

 

[Bubbles]

thanks for the picks tanko. bol rep should check into this thread to see proof of life lol

 

[Tanko]

Tracking the plays so far.
0-1-0 -1 units

TB F5 +122 - Lost