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Tanko's MLB Plays 8/31/22

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Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
42,546
After the 4-4 -1.51 units in MLB yesterday, its time for a bounce back today. The FAVs really let me down yesterday. All 3 plays of -140 or more lost (STL, ATL, MIL). 2 of those team were at home.

Today there are a couple of plays I like. Same selection criteria as in yesterday's thread.

San Diego ML -132 (5Dimes)
This was my Best Bet of the day in Best Bet thread.

I'm a little surprised this isn't higher. Musgrove is a much better pitcher than Wood, SD bats are >>> SF, recent average rpg shows SD scoring several more than SF, SF is on a 6 game slide, SF is -7 units as home team, SD is +3 units as road team.

SD/SF Over 7.5 +105 (Jazz)
Wood has been giving up runs lately at a rate that would compare to a bartender giving out drinks during Mardi Gras on Bourbon street. 4 out of his last 5 games had totals of 9, 11, 15, 14. They did have one game in that time at SD with a total of 1 so keep that in mind on the amount you bet. But today they play in SF and like usual the wind is brisk (12 mph) out to center-left.


I have a few more to post in a while.
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
42,546
Back to the same trough. Lost this one yesterday. Can't see it happening 2 days in a row at home vs Colorado.

Atlanta RL -1.5 -135
Atlanta has a +1.5 rpg edge as home FAVs. Colorado has a -2.3 rpg deficit as road DOGs. Sure lightning can strike twice but I'm betting against it. Everything says Atlanta big...
  • Wright >>> Feltner
  • ATL 0.303 avg >>> COL 0.249 avg (last 10)
  • ATL bullpen 2.88 ERA >>> COL 4.62 ERA
  • ATL +0.0 units at home, COL -10.5 units on road = Δ > 10 units in favor of ATL
  • Recent rpg ATL more than 2 rpg > COL
  • etc....

Now watch these SOBs lose.
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
42,546
DOG shot of the day.

LA Angels F5 ML +165
They are at home against the Yankees and Garret Cole.
I see value in this play at +170. Sandoval (LAA) has been lit his last 4 starts w/ 1.07 ERA. Sure Cole is good and has a 3.34 ERA in 5 starts in August but the Angels bats have been doing very well of late.

LAA 0.263 avg vs NYY 0.233 (last 10).

This one is a stretch but if I'm picking a decent DOG today, this is my play.
 
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