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Tanko's - CBB Plays 2025-2026

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
61,895
I have no "official" plays today but......

I like Michigan St. +1 or better. Michigan doesn't cover well on the road.
I usually will take the home team in these "toss-up" rivalry games.
This is clearly the best game to watch tonight.



As a side note; people should look at Siena -9. They are playing a "horrible" Niagra team.
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
61,895
Okla St. +1.5 -108 BM

I will admit, the Cowboys haven't been stellar on the road. Their offense is great in general averaging 86 ppg but lags a little when away from home. Utah has just been struggling in a lot of ways.

Using KenPom 4 factor data, my model has this game as OSU -3.5. I'm getting +1.5 from the books so I like this as a deccent play. Combine that with the 66% ATS road performance by the Cowboys vs 30% ATS home performance by the Utes and we get some +EV.... LETS GO!
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
61,895
Montana St +4.5 -108 Heritage

Montana St plays Portland St. yeah, yeah, yeah. 2 crappy teams. Montana St. plays well on the road 7-4 ATS record and when they do lose its by 2-3 points. Similarly, Port St isn't great at home 2-3 ATS and when they win they win by very close margins 2-3 pts.....

Slight edge here but I'll take it.
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
61,895
I sure hope Peterson plays the whole game for KU. He sat out the last 16 min of the BYU game Saturday. In that game the Jayhawks went from a 19 pt lead when he left to only 4 pt lead near the end of the half. Sure they won but, the offense was not nearly as effective.

Bill Self said he had a muscle pull but you have to wonder what's going on. He's not on the injury report tonight and some think its a personal thing.

RockChalk nation is a little peturbed. Some calling for him to get to the NBA to do his "load management" there instead of at KU.
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
61,895
Texas A&M +8-103 Bookmaker

They play at Bama tonight. Texas A&M is covering games exceptionally well, especially on the road.
6-1 ATS on the road while Bama is 5-9 ATS at home.
Recent games: Tex A&M 7-0 ATS, Bama 2-5 ATS.

There will be a ton of points scored in this game but, 8 points is too many IMO for the Tide to cover. If this line would have been closer to +4 I would have stayed away but, there appears to be some value in +8.
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
61,895
Clemson @ Stanford

Clemson -3.5 -105 Bookmaker

Clemson is rolling. Their only loss in the last 6 weeks was to a good NC St. in OT. They are 7-1 ATS on the road. Their beat their last 4 road opponents that were similar in rankings to Standford. 3 of those by 5 or more points. Their Adj Efficiency Margin on KenPom is 21 vs 10 for Stanford (a sizeable delta). Finally, Stanford is struggling lately, losing 5 of their last 6.
 
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