Adding:
PIT F5 +126
Oviedo (PIT) isn't a common household name like Burnes (MIL) has been but, he is pitching a whole lot better than Burnes lately. Burnes has struggled on the road. He's giving up 3-4 ER in his 5-6 innings on the road. Oviedo is averaging 2 ER in 6+ innings in his last 5 starts.
MIL is a good team but I have PIT as a better team over the last week. They are averaging more runs (6 vs 4 rpg) than MIL and they are tearing it up ab the plate relative to the Brewers over that period.
MIL 79 WRC+ 0.289 AVG
PIT 103 WRC+ 0.326 AVG
Feeling that PIT has the edge on the mound and at the plate, the last piece is the bull pen. Frankly MIL has the edge here and its pretty decent. MIL bullpen is their strongest piece of their game. So, to play it a little safe and capitalize on the advantages I see, we'll take PIT F5 for a nice + money.